ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Impressive system so far. possible rotating towers in the most recent frames.

[NDG]

What impresses me with Beryl is all the constant lightning with it, telling me it has a lot instability to work with to continue strengthening.

[Hammy]

Doing a bit of research, it appears we have the farthest east tropical storm on record in June, as Cindy last year and the one in 1933 were about a degree west

[CrazyC83]

If Beryl moves through the SE Caribbean south of Martinique as a major hurricane, it would be in rare company. The only storms to do so since 1851 are Allen (1980) and Ivan (2004).

[NDG]

https://i.imgur.com/wkbzwfu.png

Umm...hey guys, I think we *might* have a little problem here.

Word of advise, never question the models when they show a shear axis moving out the way ahead of a system in their short term forecast.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video on Beryl for anyone interested
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqGQ3FS1LfE

[Hurricane Mike]

If Beryl moves through the SE Caribbean south of Martinique as a major hurricane, it would be in rare company. The only storms to do so since 1851 are Allen (1980) and Ivan (2004).

I remember how Ivan slammed Grenada so bad, there were prisoners that escaped from damaged prisons.

[Ubuntwo]

Convection starting to wrap upshear?

[Category5Kaiju]

I don't know, there's just something about this storm that really bothers me. I'd love to be wrong, but once everything is said and done, I have a feeling that Beryl will not be remembered the same as other early MDR storms in recent such as Gonzalo 2020, Elsa 2021, or Bret 2023

[Teban54]

Doing a bit of research, it appears we have the farthest east tropical storm on record in June, as Cindy last year and the one in 1933 were about a degree west

Actually, Klotzbach says Bret 2023 formed further east:
 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1806882310148530470

[Hammy]

Doing a bit of research, it appears we have the farthest east tropical storm on record in June, as Cindy last year and the one in 1933 were about a degree west

Actually, Klotzbach says Bret 2023 formed further east:
 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1806882310148530470

Go figure, the one storm I didn't check...

Two storms with the same name in the same area (17 and 23) probably got me thrown off

[Homie J]

Well, looks like Beryl got a few CB's rotating upshear now. Something tells me this isn't a minimal tropical storm anymore.

[cycloneye]

A. 02L (BERYL)

B. 29/0600Z

C. 9.5N

D. 44.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...COR FOR SYSTEM NAME... 5.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF
2.5. THE MET IS 1.5 AND THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[cycloneye]

AL, 02, 2024062906, , BEST, 0, 97N, 446W, 40, 1003, TS

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't know, there's just something about this storm that really bothers me. I'd love to be wrong, but once everything is said and done, I have a feeling that Beryl will not be remembered the same as other early MDR storms in recent such as Gonzalo 2020, Elsa 2021, or Bret 2023

Yea I hope Mexico(most likely) is prepared just in case it does turn out to be a strong Hurricane. Let's hope not though............

[REDHurricane]

Presentation has improved markedly in the past 30-45 minutes, looks like a perfect little shrimp now:

[Stratton23]

Looks like Beryl is beginning to try to form an Inner core

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1806938521820631411

[Teban54]

You can't get a more textbook shrimp than this:

[AxaltaRacing24]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1806938521820631411

Hurricane models are unfortunately verifying well so far.