ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

First visible imagery of the morning, just in time to witness a significant hot tower right over the center:
https://i.ibb.co/zPQWPdH/goes16-vis-meso1-2.gif

Good catch on the tower formation. NHC is wise to stick with consensus for now; there is no reason to adjust at the end of the period at this time in their world.

"The consensus models lean more toward a west-northwestward motion, and
the official forecast follows this guidance. The new forecast track
has only minor changes from the previous track."

[zzzh]

Impressive convective burst around half of the eyewall. This is very close to hurricane status now.

[Hurricane2022]

Any chance of this becoming a C5 hurricane like Emily?

[USTropics]

Another hot tower has formed to the south:


This implies shear has relaxed to the point that moist air is able to rapidly ascend and release latent heat, penetrating into the tropopause via significant updrafts. These hot towers aren't quite rotating around the center yet, which indicates to me the eyewall is still in the formative stages, but dual hot towers is typically a precursor to rapid intensification.

[aspen]

Beryl saw my doubts about its core construction and took it as a challenge lol.

This is behaving like a September MDR major, not something in late June. If this keeps up, perhaps we’ll have a storm rivaling Alex ‘10 for the title of the strongest June Atlantic TC.

[GCANE]

Getting stacked

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/02L.GIF

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Still being impacted by shear, but you can see a budding eye in this latest shot.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, looks like this mid-season Cape Verde hurricane is going to go nuclear…..

[WeatherBoy2000]

Still being impacted by shear, but you can see a budding eye in this latest shot.

https://i.imgur.com/lRHDkI5.jpeg

What appears to be an eye could just be dry air that has mixed into the storm:

 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1807021104894001327

[Kazmit]

Remarkable trends overnight. 2024 decided to skip the early season slop and cut right to the chase.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Does it look like it’s heading north and Barbados will be spared the worse? That’s what usually happens

[MarioProtVI]

Beryl is definitely trying to outdo its 2018 incarnation which was similar being an MDR hurricane around this time. Obviously this one looks to become much stronger.

[wxman57]

I'm still not buying the NHC intensity and track. Too much reliance on the GFS. GFS model is making the consensus too far north. I think it's passing south of Jamaica and heading for the Yucatan north of Belize. GFS operational is north of most of its members. It's the only model that develops Beryl to more than a Cat 1.

[cycloneye]

A. 02L (BERYL)

B. 29/1200Z

C. 9.7N

D. 46.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...5/10 BROKEN BANDING YIELDS A DT=2.5. MET=2.5. PT=3.0. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE PT SINCE BANDING FEATURE ISN'T CONSISTENT AND IS NOT
CLEAR-CUT RELATIVE TO THE LLCC, AND AN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[zzzh]

AL, 02, 2024062912, , BEST, 0, 98N, 469W, 55, 998, TS,

[aspen]

I'm still not buying the NHC intensity and track. Too much reliance on the GFS. GFS model is making the consensus too far north. I think it's passing south of Jamaica and heading for the Yucatan north of Belize. GFS operational is north of most of its members. It's the only model that develops Beryl to more than a Cat 1.

I would question the GFS and hurricane models intensity estimates if Beryl hadn’t already developed an inner core. It’s been evolving more like a peak season MDR hurricane. I agree that the models and NHC forecast likely keep it too strong past Monday, though. Shear will probably decapitate it the further it gets into the Caribbean, like Elsa.

[GCANE]

Latest tower did some serious cirrus stacking with radial fingers projecting east.
Looks very compact.
I think a diurnal pause is starting and will run for about 4 hrs

[cycloneye]

AL, 02, 2024062912, , BEST, 0, 98N, 469W, 55, 998, TS

[3090]

NHC forecast within a 5 day forecast period, is typically very accurate. It will certainly be interesting to see how this actually and ultimately plays out. This is an unusual season, so we shall see as to how the typical climatology patterns play out, or not. (IE; Carribean death bed for tropical storms and hurricanes, this time of the year.). And kf course; the track.

[wxman57]

AL, 02, 2024062912, , BEST, 0, 98N, 469W, 55, 998, TS

Dvorak only 3.0, about 45 kts.