ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[3090]

AL, 02, 2024062912, , BEST, 0, 98N, 469W, 55, 998, TS

Dvorak only 3.0, about 45 kts.

I see where others say 60 mph (~52 kts.)

[IcyTundra]

The small size of Beryl is going to cause issues for the models it can be a challenge for them with small systems.

[GCANE]

The small size of Beryl is going to cause issues for the models it can be a challenge for them with small systems.

Yup, it's not uncommon for rapidly developing TCs to be very compact with pin-hole eyes or close to.
Watching IR, I think it may be the case here.

[ouragans]

35 kts at 0300z
55 kts at 1200z

I bet 65 kts at 1800z, ahead of schedule

[Sciencerocks]

[ScottNAtlanta]

This will easily be a hurricane by the time recon is able to investigate it. It has already dealt with the dry air intrusion in short order and is forming a CDO. Not much to get in the way short term

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1807023251408683495

[wxman57]

Consensus models have now shifted well south of NHC's track. South of Jamaica and inland just north of Belize. Look for a gradual south shift in the NHC track.

[zzzh]

There is some easterly shear

[IsabelaWeather]

https://i.imgur.com/yOkq5b6.png

Is this a microwave imagery?

[jlauderdal]

Consensus models have now shifted well south of NHC's track. South of Jamaica and inland just north of Belize. Look for a gradual south shift in the NHC track.

As you predicted yesterday.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/yOkq5b6.png
There is some easterly shear

The eyewall is still coming together nicely.

[3090]

Consensus models have now shifted well south of NHC's track. South of Jamaica and inland just north of Belize. Look for a gradual south shift in the NHC track.

As you predicted yesterday.

Indeed! I will certainly feel a lot better, when the NHC 5 day forecast clearly indicates Beryl going into the Yucatan peninsula. But now, I would be glad to see them move their track further south, in the 5 day forecast window.

[abk_0710]

Is it true that a stronger storm will automatically get pulled north? If that's the case, why do the models have it going straight west when it enters the Gulf? Is rapid strengthening a concern for the Gulf Coast? Thanks so much!

[WeatherBoy2000]

Is it true that a stronger storm will automatically get pulled north? If that's the case, why do the models have it going straight west when it enters the Gulf? Is rapid strengthening a concern for the Gulf Coast? Thanks so much!

Stronger storms do have a poleward tendency, but if there's a sufficiently strong ridge over them then they'll just keep moving west. It's still too early to say if this even a concern for the gulf coast yet, let alone if it'll RI there. This storm may end up in Central America/Mexico, it could be completely destroyed in the Caribbean and/or by the larger Antilles, and so on.

[IcyTundra]

NHC now forecasting a major hurricane

[jlauderdal]

Consensus models have now shifted well south of NHC's track. South of Jamaica and inland just north of Belize. Look for a gradual south shift in the NHC track.

As you predicted yesterday.

Indeed! I will certainly feel a lot better, when the NHC 5 day forecast clearly indicates Beryl going into the Yucatan peninsula. But now, I would be glad to see them move their track further south, in the 5 day forecast window.

They move their track slower than most, which is wise move by them. Different audiences, different agendas, different forecasts but as always, the trend is your friend.

[Stormlover70]

I am just interested in how this is forecast to get stronger with the Sal. This is a precursor of this season I fear.

[BobHarlem]

SVG is going to get nailed. Barbados is going to likely get the dirty side.

[Cachondo23]

SVG is going to get nailed. Barbados is going to likely get the dirty side.

That area of the Grenadines from Mustique all the way to Canouan could be very hard hit if the forecast is correct.