ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

I am just interested in how this is forecast to get stronger with the Sal. This is a precursor of this season I fear.

SAL is normally an issue for TCs, unless that TC has a robust moisture field and is not being heavily impinged by wind shear. When that happens, you get a storm like this that survives an otherwise dusty and dry surrounding environment.

[IsabelaWeather]

I am just interested in how this is forecast to get stronger with the Sal. This is a precursor of this season I fear.

There is no SAL in the storm, and there is no shear to advect it in.

[aspen]

I think I can kind of see a mid-level eye feature on visible imagery. Outflow/banding features also seem to be expanding to the western side of Beryl, indicating that shear continues to decrease.

[MGC]

NHC expecting Beryl to be a major in Windwards.....storm looks to be coming together at a fast pace. Ever been a major in June in this part of the basin?.......MGC

[Hypercane_Kyle]

SVG is going to get nailed. Barbados is going to likely get the dirty side.

Yeah, I think (someone correct me if I'm wrong) this would be the first major hurricane to impact them directly since Ivan.

[ScottNAtlanta]

SVG is going to get nailed. Barbados is going to likely get the dirty side.

Yeah, I think (someone correct me if I'm wrong) this would be the first major hurricane to impact them directly since Ivan.

The only comparable would be the 1933 Trinidad Hurricane and that peaked at 110 mph so if this becomes a major it would be stronger.
(I thought you meant this early)

[zzzh]

I think I can kind of see a mid-level eye feature on visible imagery. Outflow/banding features also seem to be expanding to the western side of Beryl, indicating that shear continues to decrease.

Shear is from the east side so need the east side to wrap around.

[Category5Kaiju]

At this point, forget August 20. We need to ring that bell like today.

[chaser1]

I have to imagine that one or more destination wedding and potential cruise port stop plans are about to get wrecked

[aspen]

I think I can kind of see a mid-level eye feature on visible imagery. Outflow/banding features also seem to be expanding to the western side of Beryl, indicating that shear continues to decrease.

Shear is from the east side so need the east side to wrap around.

Eastern side I meant. Thanks for the catch.

[LarryWx]

I have to imagine that one or more destination wedding and potential cruise port stop plans are about to get wrecked

Relatives starting cruise today from Fl with stops in Cozumel on 7/1, Grand Cayman (GC) on 7/2, Jamaica on 7/3, and NW Bahamas on 7/5. Looks to me like GC/Jamaican portion will have to change. But what would they do? Opinions?
I told them that what they didn’t know is that this is a storm chasing cruise.

[tolakram]

Floater loop



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-0-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I have to imagine that one or more destination wedding and potential cruise port stop plans are about to get wrecked

Also the people who live there and don’t have the option of just flying home?????

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1807083666717213112



Great thread by Tomer

[BobHarlem]

Right now is a good example of when a TUTT actually enhances a storm.

[Sciencerocks]

[Dougiefresh]

I have to imagine that one or more destination wedding and potential cruise port stop plans are about to get wrecked

Also the people who live there and don’t have the option of just flying home?????

It's gunna be a long week with Beryl and potential Chris on Wednesday and then the long long clean up and restoration of normal life.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IR does seem to indicate some dry air intrusion is occuring, the CDO is a tad ragged and you can see outflow boundaries ejecting away from the system as thunderstorms collapse.

Not unusual, what's really unusual is overall seeing a storm with such a high degree of structural organization at this longitude in June. I fully anticipate rapid intensification to ensue once it reaches ~55W. As I mentioned when it was an invest, it would be wise to treat Beryl as a late-August storm as its upper-boundary to what it'll do before reaching the west Caribbean.

[HurricaneRyan]

Beryl is living up to its gemstone name. It's about to shine bright like a diamond.

[3090]

I have to imagine that one or more destination wedding and potential cruise port stop plans are about to get wrecked

Also the people who live there and don’t have the option of just flying home?????

It's gunna be a long week with Beryl and potential Chris on Wednesday and then the long long clean up and restoration of normal life.

The POSSIBLE/POTENTIAL Chris, will be a more genuine concern to those that live along the northern/central Gulf coast as it appears now!!