Texas Summer 2024

[Brent]

I'm getting really tired of every summer lately having heat indexes over 115

I wish Beryl would help us out but I'm not very optimistic

We have to watch the system behind Beryl as well. IMO, the tropics are the only thing to talk about regarding the weather right now.

Maybe if we get enough of them they'll eventually break down the ridge

[Ntxw]

I'm getting really tired of every summer lately having heat indexes over 115

I wish Beryl would help us out but I'm not very optimistic

We have to watch the system behind Beryl as well. IMO, the tropics are the only thing to talk about regarding the weather right now.

Maybe if we get enough of them they'll eventually break down the ridge

Or they build more ridging in their wake. Rising air over the ATL isn't always favorable for TX, especially when we're in feedback loop of dry-heat.

But the chance is better than nothing I guess, what more can it do.

[Texas Snowman]

Crazy for late June. May have a real Cat 5 in the Gulf by Labor Day if this keeps up…


 https://x.com/reedtimmerusa/status/1807068995020874082

[Brent]

We have to watch the system behind Beryl as well. IMO, the tropics are the only thing to talk about regarding the weather right now.

Maybe if we get enough of them they'll eventually break down the ridge

Or they build more ridging in their wake. Rising air over the ATL isn't always favorable for TX, especially when we're in feedback loop of dry-heat.

But the chance is better than nothing I guess, what more can it do.

True I mean I still remember getting hot again after Laura and that was practically September

I just wanna know if we're ever gonna have normal summers again because a 115 heat index will never be normal here. I keep hearing it won't be as bad as last summer and yet year to date it is worse

[Cpv17]

Maybe if we get enough of them they'll eventually break down the ridge

Or they build more ridging in their wake. Rising air over the ATL isn't always favorable for TX, especially when we're in feedback loop of dry-heat.

But the chance is better than nothing I guess, what more can it do.

True I mean I still remember getting hot again after Laura and that was practically September

I just wanna know if we're ever gonna have normal summers again because a 115 heat index will never be normal here. I keep hearing it won't be as bad as last summer and yet year to date it is worse

It hasn’t been that bad around here. We’ve had one day where the heat index was like 117, but other than that the heat index has been about 105-110 around here.

[Cpv17]

Crazy for late June. May have a real Cat 5 in the Gulf by Labor Day if this keeps up…


 https://x.com/reedtimmerusa/status/1807068995020874082

It wouldn’t surprise me if we have one in July, but I think by August it’s damn near a guarantee.

[Texas Snowman]

I don’t know if I have ever been this interested in a developing tropical storm before the Fourth of July…

 https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/1807126519732682868

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS takes Beryl just south of Corpus Christi as a 965 MB Hurricane next Sunday. Texas isn't in the clear yet with Beryl.

[bubba hotep]

[Brent]

The EPS mean almost looks like Lake Charles to me. It turns right at the last minute. Clearly nothing can be ruled out yet

And to be fair we're talking about day 10

[Texas Snowman]

The plot continues to thicken…

 https://x.com/icyclone/status/1807178966568198174

[cstrunk]

Beryl is turning into a monster. Stronger storms usually skew/turn right moreso than weaker storms. It will depend on if the high pressure over us shifts or weakens at all... otherwise another Mexican landfall seems most likely.

[txtwister78]

A lot to watch regarding Beryl long term. If models are correct in bringing a trough out across the Midwest with a frontal boundary dropping into Texas late next week, there may be a window for whatever is left of the storm to turn more NW or northerly assuming it gets out into the southern gulf as some ensemble members are indicating.

Of course, when all that occurs and what's left of it is all speculative at this range.

[Brent]

I'm seeing posts here about a front next weekend.. very interesting

[South Texas Storms]

A lot to watch regarding Beryl long term. If models are correct in bringing a trough out across the Midwest with a frontal boundary dropping into Texas late next week, there may be a window for whatever is left of the storm to turn more NW or northerly assuming it gets out into the southern gulf as some ensemble members are indicating.

Of course, when all that occurs and what's left of it is all speculative at this range.

Yep, concerning models trends for TX today. We are still a week out but I don't like the northward shift in the guidance the past few runs.

[Texas Snowman]

 https://x.com/blakemathews08/status/1807462034935603265

[snownado]

Models are gonna model with their ridiculous outputs, but logically with the timing of the incoming "deep" trough, I only see 2 realistic outcomes with Beryl as far as possible Texas impacts:

1. A recurvature in the GOM before it reaches Texas, with any/all meaninful impacts remaining in Louisiana and eastward.

2. Only parts of South Texas getting skirted wirh moisture/precip (similar to Alberto) as it slides progressively into/across Mexico

#2 would be ideal to help extend the "cool down" for the region.

[snownado]

DFW set new record maximum lows both on 6/29 and 6/30, with lows of 81F and 82F respectively.

[txtwister78]

Models are gonna model with their ridiculous outputs, but logically with the timing of the incoming "deep" trough, I only see 2 realistic outcomes with Beryl as far as possible Texas impacts:

1. A recurvature in the GOM before it reaches Texas, with any/all meaninful impacts remaining in Louisiana and eastward.

2. Only parts of South Texas getting skirted wirh moisture/precip (similar to Alberto) as it slides progressively into/across Mexico

#2 would be ideal to help extend the "cool down" for the region.

Although we're still a few days away before we can begin to really focus on what impact (if any) Beryl might have for the US, I would say scenario #1 seems increasingly less likely as all models have a stout ridge helping to guide it on a more west/wnw track. No indication that will change before it reaches the Yucatan.

Beyond that as mentioned yesterday models (ensembles, hurricane models) continue to go back and forth as to whether whatever is left of Beryl becomes influenced by a trough out over the Midwest late in the week once it moves out into the southern gulf. Should that occur, then there may be a brief window where the Texas coastline (southern portions as it stands today) could see direct impacts.

Bottom line, Texas is not out of the woods just yet and we won't know probably until Wednesday evening what scenario is more likely (Mexico/Texas).

[Portastorm]

One impact that looks to be fairly likely will be rip currents along the Texas coastline. Over the Memorial Day weekend, a person died and dozens needed to be rescued in Galveston due to rip currents. With a holiday week on us and hundreds of thousands enjoying Texas beaches, this is going to be a real concern.

Also noticed the 12z tropical models and GFS are a bit further north on the storm's trajectory in the western Gulf. We are far from being considered out of the woods.