ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cachondo23]

Interesting from a boating perspective that people do take their boats to this area of the Windward Islands to evade hurricanes and now we’re seeing this situation. People probably taking their boats since yesterday to the Leewards Islands just for now.

[galaxy401]

Interested in how strong Beryl will get before July officially arrives.

[GCANE]

An AMSU microwave pass over Tropical Storm #Beryl from ~ 3 hours ago showed an eyewall beginning to develop around #Beryl's center of circulation.

This is very likely a precursor to much more rapid intensification.


https://x.com/webberweather/status/1807083106383663215

[GCANE]

Tropical Storm #Beryl is getting a huge boost from an Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) to its north today, with outflow rapidly expanding radially outward into the poleward outflow channel created by the TUTT.

This exceptionally favorable upper-level environment coupled w/ record warm SSTs, very high oceanic heat content, & a developing eyewall (via 12z AMSU pass), all point to an impending period of rapid-very rapid intensification w/ #Beryl.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1807084722901889041

[3090]

An AMSU microwave pass over Tropical Storm #Beryl from ~ 3 hours ago showed an eyewall beginning to develop around #Beryl's center of circulation.

This is very likely a precursor to much more rapid intensification.


https://x.com/webberweather/status/1807083106383663215

Could be a hurricane, for the all time records, for this time of the season. So anomalous. Geez.

[GCANE]

Well structured 1C warm core with broad, moderate cold pool below

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

[wxman57]

Is it true that a stronger storm will automatically get pulled north? If that's the case, why do the models have it going straight west when it enters the Gulf? Is rapid strengthening a concern for the Gulf Coast? Thanks so much!

Generally true, but Beryl passes a weakness in the ridge just east of Jamaica and another ridge builds over the SE U.S. down to the Caribbean, turning it west or even a little south of west.

[GCANE]

This has to be one of the strongest helicity signatures I have ever seen.
Just about at the time where Beryl will be coming out of diurnal min.
Fireworks may start shortly .

[bohai]

Why is recon waiting until Sunday? TS force winds should be near Barbados on Sun evening already.

[cane5]

Welcome back Hurricane trackers we start the season with a barn burner and a storm way out of sync with what we would see in June. Absolutely petrifying.

[CrazyC83]

Why is recon waiting until Sunday? TS force winds should be near Barbados on Sun evening already.

It's a long way to there from St. Croix.

[USTropics]

NHC expecting Beryl to be a major in Windwards.....storm looks to be coming together at a fast pace. Ever been a major in June in this part of the basin?.......MGC

Major hurricanes in general are very rare in June, there have only been 3 total. The most notorious is of course Audrey from 1957. There is also Alma from 1966 and an unnamed hurricane from 1945.

There have been exactly 0 major hurricanes east of the Caribbean in June going back to 1850, and only 2 hurricanes in record (Emily in 2021 and the Trinidad Hurricane of 1933).

[Craters]

Why is recon waiting until Sunday? TS force winds should be near Barbados on Sun evening already.

It's a long way to there from St. Croix.

Amen to that. The round trip would be roughly like flying from St. Croix to New Orleans, and that wouldn't include the time doing their pattern in the system.

[cycloneye]

Up to 70 mph.

AL, 02, 2024062918, , BEST, 0, 100N, 485W, 60, 995, TS

[Iceresistance]

Oh my

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1807118825659474286

[Nimbus]

NHC expecting Beryl to be a major in Windwards.....storm looks to be coming together at a fast pace. Ever been a major in June in this part of the basin?.......MGC

Major hurricanes in general are very rare in June, there have only been 3 total. The most notorious is of course Audrey from 1957. There is also Alma from 1966 and an unnamed hurricane from 1945.

There have been exactly 0 major hurricanes east of the Caribbean in June going back to 1850, and only 2 hurricanes in record (Emily in 2021 and the Trinidad Hurricane of 1933).

Probably why the NHC isn't buying the HWRF sub 950 mb intensity all the way across the Caribbean.
Put a few yellows in there before it reaches the gulf so the gulf coast people can sleep.

HWRF track is a tad further south then yesterday so that is a comforting trend if you don't live in Mexico.

[Michele B]

Tropical Storm #Beryl is getting a huge boost from an Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) to its north today, with outflow rapidly expanding radially outward into the poleward outflow channel created by the TUTT.

This exceptionally favorable upper-level environment coupled w/ record warm SSTs, very high oceanic heat content, & a developing eyewall (via 12z AMSU pass), all point to an impending period of rapid-very rapid intensification w/ #Beryl.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1807084722901889041

Ah! So! Here is definition of this Acronym. There are several others....

I recently turned a friend on to this site, told them it tends to become very"technical" when discussing a PTC, and then realized that it is quite a learning curve to figure out what all the acronyms mean.


Are they all listed out and defined somewhere so I can send that link to my friend? TIA

[zzzh]

NHC expecting Beryl to be a major in Windwards.....storm looks to be coming together at a fast pace. Ever been a major in June in this part of the basin?.......MGC

Major hurricanes in general are very rare in June, there have only been 3 total. The most notorious is of course Audrey from 1957. There is also Alma from 1966 and an unnamed hurricane from 1945.

There have been exactly 0 major hurricanes east of the Caribbean in June going back to 1850, and only 2 hurricanes in record (Emily in 2021 and the Trinidad Hurricane of 1933).

Elsa formed on July 1 and became a hurricane on July 2, so Trinidad Hurricane was the only June MDR HU.

[StormPyrate]

Some models are showing this falling apart after it passes Jamaica, Has a large storm EVER just died in that area leading into the gulf?

[jabman98]

Ah! So! Here is definition of this Acronym. There are several others....

I recently turned a friend on to this site, told them it tends to become very"technical" when discussing a PTC, and then realized that it is quite a learning curve to figure out what all the acronyms mean.


Are they all listed out and defined somewhere so I can send that link to my friend? TIA

This thread might be helpful:
S2K Weather Acronyms - https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 61&t=95832