Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 96L)

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

https://i.postimg.cc/Bv4NTh8S/IMG-2954.png

Just your average June with 2 MDR disturbances at the same time, nothing weird going on here...

I mean. Its still behind 2005...which was 19 years ago. The Sun is in an active period right now, we just saw northern lights down in Florida just a month ago.

Alot of this is Sun driven. i would suspect if one looked back at unique hurricane systems in history, they directly correlate to Solar Cycles

[Cpv17]

https://i.postimg.cc/Bv4NTh8S/IMG-2954.png

Just your average June with 2 MDR disturbances at the same time, nothing weird going on here...

I mean. Its still behind 2005...which was 19 years ago. The Sun is in an active period right now, we just saw northern lights down in Florida just a month ago.

Alot of this is Sun driven. i would suspect if one looked back at unique hurricane systems in history, they directly correlate to Solar Cycles

What happened in June of 2005?

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Just your average June with 2 MDR disturbances at the same time, nothing weird going on here...

I mean. Its still behind 2005...which was 19 years ago. The Sun is in an active period right now, we just saw northern lights down in Florida just a month ago.

Alot of this is Sun driven. i would suspect if one looked back at unique hurricane systems in history, they directly correlate to Solar Cycles

What happened in June of 2005?

Think we already had Dennis and Emily. Both Category 5's but my memory could be wrong. It was close. Sun was also going through a max cycle at the time

[cainjamin]

I mean. Its still behind 2005...which was 19 years ago. The Sun is in an active period right now, we just saw northern lights down in Florida just a month ago.

Alot of this is Sun driven. i would suspect if one looked back at unique hurricane systems in history, they directly correlate to Solar Cycles

What happened in June of 2005?

Think we already had Dennis and Emily. Both Category 5's but my memory could be wrong. It was close. Sun was also going through a max cycle at the time

Dennis and Emily were both July storms, although Dennis was very early July. Only Emily was a cat 5.

[tolakram]

https://i.postimg.cc/Bv4NTh8S/IMG-2954.png

Just your average June with 2 MDR disturbances at the same time, nothing weird going on here...

I mean. Its still behind 2005...which was 19 years ago. The Sun is in an active period right now, we just saw northern lights down in Florida just a month ago.

Alot of this is Sun driven. i would suspect if one looked back at unique hurricane systems in history, they directly correlate to Solar Cycles

Solar cycles are generally 11 years, you can Wikipedia their timeframes. Peak of cycle 23 was Nov 2001 and a minimum and the start of a new cycle was 2008. 2005 was not an active solar year (edit: though Sept 2005 has a spurt of activity) and there is no demonstrated correlation between solar cycles / solar activity and hurricane seasons.

[tolakram]

Because Beryl is blowing up I suspect this wave doesn't have a chance due to shear. That's usually the way it works, and the Euro is showing a weaker storm now. We'll have to see if this happens or not.

[zzzh]

Models agree that the distance between beryl and the system is around 20 degree longitude, and they can share a common (big) ULAC.
Also just a side note, Irma and Jose were also around 20 degrees longitude apart. We'll see if the Atlantic is that favorable in a few days

[cycloneye]

Models agree that the distance between beryl and the system is around 20 degree longitude, and they can share a common (big) ULAC.
Also just a side note, Irma and Jose were also around 20 degrees longitude apart. We'll see if the Atlantic is that favorable in a few days

Also some cold waters left by Beryl.

[IcyTundra]

Beryl is going to be a small in size which might limit the size of the area that is upwelled.

[cycloneye]

Beryl is going to be a small in size which might limit the size of the area that is upwelled.

Good point.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS… Showing big early separation from Beryl on this run…

[aspen]

https://i.postimg.cc/zBS5mFVr/gfs-mslp- ... -trend.gif

18z GFS… Showing big early separation from Beryl on this run…

Still has a very unfavorable UL pattern, though. UL flow is gonna be nearly perpendicular to the disturbance’s movement. I doubt it’ll get stronger than 50 kt.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Blown Away]

A lot of interesting things happening with this AOI… Come on NHC 30/70 it’s annoying they haven’t invest tagged this area…

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS a little stronger for this wave than 18z, gets to 977mb in the eastern Caribbean before weakening and getting shredded by Hispaniola. Hopefully this gets tagged soon so we can start getting hurricane models runs.

[AtlanticWind]

This is now 96l invest