2024 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

No change.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico and Central America:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this week a couple of
hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico or Guatemala. Some
slow development is possible this weekend and early next week while
the system meanders near the coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

EPAC strikes out again.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing limited shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to
remain unfavorable, and development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[StormWeather]

NHC suggests that if this low pressure system stays offshore, with it’s current conclusive conditions, it may become a short-lived tropical depression

[galaxy401]

So when do you all think the Pacific will produce its first storm? Over a month into the season and still crickets...

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has the historic data of what year was the latest first named storm that formed?

[Yellow Evan]

Does anyone has the historic data of what year was the latest first named storm that formed?

2023 (if to 180W), 2016 (if to 140W).

[Yellow Evan]

So when do you all think the Pacific will produce its first storm? Over a month into the season and still crickets...

The CAG is ensuring shear across the EPAC is high right now. The season will most likely start when it subsides.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm honestly astonished by how quiet this basin is (and the WPAC too, for that matter). I would've thought that by now and the foreseeable future we would've seen or see a named storm, but alas that doesn't seem to be the case. I'm actually curious to see when activity will pick up here.

[MetroMike]

According to Joe Bastardi from Weatherbell he says July 2nd is the latest start to the EPAC season on record.
Makes me wonder why the Atl basin is not more favorable due to this. Normally is the case.

[IcyTundra]

According to Joe Bastardi from Weatherbell he says July 2nd is the latest start to the EPAC season on record.
Makes me wonder why the Atl basin is not more favorable due to this. Normally is the case.

Imo June has pretty marginal conditions for TC development and we still got 4 invests in the last 2 week. Only one of them developed but that isn't unusual for June.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm honestly astonished by how quiet this basin is (and the WPAC too, for that matter). I would've thought that by now and the foreseeable future we would've seen or see a named storm, but alas that doesn't seem to be the case. I'm actually curious to see when activity will pick up here.

WPAC is seldom active in June anyway due to Mei-yu front season, and spring activity was limited as it typically is during strong El Nino ---> La Nina transitions due to a lack of west Pacific WWBs.

[zzzh]

I think we'll see some EPAC activities as the Atlantic trade wind surges, pushing the monsoon trough back to the ocean.

[aspen]

Now the latest-starting EPac season in the satellite era. I can’t believe how dead the Pacific has been this year so far, both the East and west. Didn’t think we’d go through all of June without a TC.

[tolakram]

What's the EPAC?

[weeniepatrol]

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some gradual
development is possible during the next several days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

I think we'll see some EPAC activities as the Atlantic trade wind surges, pushing the monsoon trough back to the ocean.

Monsoon trough was pretty active to start the season.
UL environment in even the most favorable area of the EPAC has not been conducive for TCG. That needs to change

[zzzh]

I think we'll see some EPAC activities as the Atlantic trade wind surges, pushing the monsoon trough back to the ocean.

Monsoon trough was pretty active to start the season.
UL environment in even the most favorable area of the EPAC has not been conducive for TCG. That needs to change

The monsoon trough has been over central America this entire month, so need Atlantic trades to speed up (unlikely) to send it back to where it should be.

[cycloneye]

New record of latest start.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1808343170201027018

[HurricaneRyan]

I feel like this is going to rival 2010 in terms of inactivity.

[cycloneye]

Another record broken.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1808854521461829885