ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[Odeseus]

Looks like there are 2 large thunderstorms rotating around the eye now. Really looks to be ramping up - if it continues.

Trying to close off a rudimentary eye. Impressive if it can get there tonight.

[Hurricane2022]

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Officials in Barbados say the system is gonna past further to the south of us and this is a good thing. What do you guys think

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Officials in Barbados say the system is gonna past further to the south of us and this is a good thing. What do you guys think

Forecast track is just to your south but it wouldn't take much of a shift to put you in the stronger northern eyewall.

[cycloneye]

Beryl may be stronger than indicated at SSD dvorak.

A. 02L (BERYL)

B. 30/0000Z

C. 10.2N

D. 50.4W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...B EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN AN E# OF
5.0 WITH EADJ -1.0 FOR A DT OF 4.0. 2059Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS EYE AND NEARLY
CLOSED SOLID EYEWALL. TIGHT INNER CORE BANDING BECMG APPARENT. CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -83 C. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW VERY GOOD NW AND W QUADS. MET=3.5 AND
PT=4.0. FT BASED ON DT. SYSTEM MAY BE STRONGER THAN FT INDICATES DUE TO
LIMITS OF DVORAK FOR SMALL TC.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

[ConvergenceZone]

Man, can you imagine how busy and chaotic this board would be right now if this was expected to be a USA threat? This board would be going crazy right now! let's hope everyone in the islands will be okay and hopefully the shear in the Carib does a number on it, so that our friends in Belize etc will only get the rain.

[ColdMiser123]

ATCF now has 986 mb/75 kt for 0z

[CrazyC83]

Beryl may be stronger than indicated at SSD dvorak.

A. 02L (BERYL)

B. 30/0000Z

C. 10.2N

D. 50.4W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...B EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN AN E# OF
5.0 WITH EADJ -1.0 FOR A DT OF 4.0. 2059Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS EYE AND NEARLY
CLOSED SOLID EYEWALL. TIGHT INNER CORE BANDING BECMG APPARENT. CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -83 C. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW VERY GOOD NW AND W QUADS. MET=3.5 AND
PT=4.0. FT BASED ON DT. SYSTEM MAY BE STRONGER THAN FT INDICATES DUE TO
LIMITS OF DVORAK FOR SMALL TC.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

I would assess the intensity at 80 kt with all that data and turning off the constraints.

[Hammy]

Beryl may be stronger than indicated at SSD dvorak.

A. 02L (BERYL)

B. 30/0000Z

C. 10.2N

D. 50.4W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...B EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN AN E# OF
5.0 WITH EADJ -1.0 FOR A DT OF 4.0. 2059Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS EYE AND NEARLY
CLOSED SOLID EYEWALL. TIGHT INNER CORE BANDING BECMG APPARENT. CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -83 C. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW VERY GOOD NW AND W QUADS. MET=3.5 AND
PT=4.0. FT BASED ON DT. SYSTEM MAY BE STRONGER THAN FT INDICATES DUE TO
LIMITS OF DVORAK FOR SMALL TC.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

I would assess the intensity at 80 kt with all that data and turning off the constraints.

I can easily see that for the 11pm intensity, it's already 75kt on the BT and they had it at 60 prior to upgrading earlier.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1807215968285851953

[Category5Kaiju]

Captain Barbossa's Tropical Cyclone Timeline:

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.

2. June 29th: There's a major Caribbean cruising, Cape Verde hurricane that is active.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Sure, we can call it Hurricane Beryl but to be economical we can just call it Berylcane

or Hurl Burl

Hurl-a-Beryl, the newest ride from the Atlantic Ocean theme park.

It spins really fast and the bottom drops out

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1807227450386268323

[Teban54]

Hints of the eye clearing out?

[bob rulz]

This is truly incredible. 2005 was the first year I would say I became a bit of a hurricane enthusiast. An unusually early Cape Verde hurricane that will likely enter the Caribbean at major hurricane intensity gives me big Emily 2005 vibes. On the one hand it's amazing to see this history being made, on the other hand it does not bode well for this hurricane season. Unfortunately it could end up being one for the ages.

[msbee]

Man, can you imagine how busy and chaotic this board would be right now if this was expected to be a USA threat? This board would be going crazy right now! let's hope everyone in the islands will be okay and hopefully the shear in the Carib does a number on it, so that our friends in Belize etc will only get the rain.

We are all most concerned with something that is threatening where we live. There are only a few of us Caribbean folks on here, so often the islands get overlooked.
I hope the people in Barbados, T and T, Grenada, St Vincent, St Lucia will be safe. Even a tropical storm in the fragile environment of the islands can cause damage. Flooding is a real threat.

[Teban54]

In addition to being anomalously far east this time of the year, Beryl is also anomalously far south.

Another fun fact: See the short near-horizontal line in the MDR that appeared right next to Beryl 2024 and soon after it in the animation? That's Beryl 2018. It took a very similar track as this year's Beryl so far, and became a hurricane even further east, but a week later.
 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1807177625389191290



 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1807181475072319508

[LemieT]

Man, can you imagine how busy and chaotic this board would be right now if this was expected to be a USA threat? This board would be going crazy right now! let's hope everyone in the islands will be okay and hopefully the shear in the Carib does a number on it, so that our friends in Belize etc will only get the rain.

We are all most concerned with something that is threatening where we live. There are only a few of us Caribbean folks on here, so often the islands get overlooked.
I hope the people in Barbados, T and T, Grenada, St Vincent, St Lucia will be safe. Even a tropical storm in the fragile environment of the islands can cause damage. Flooding is a real threat.

Indeed. Plus in many of the islands we have had a lot of rain from the previous waves so some of our grounds are already saturated. We can often get caught up on windspeed but widespread flooding often does the bulk of the dirty work in these storms. As a reminder, Erika 2015 in Dominica.

Stay safe my fellow islanders and indeed everyone here on S2K. It looks like a long, arduous(and intriguing) season ahead.

[SconnieCane]

I first really started tracking in earnest in the summer of 1994 (when I was 8). Ever since then, every six years like clockwork those familiar names have come up. Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Gordon...(2018 finally got rid of Florence). This particular list has had more staying power than most as it has consistently been associated with relatively benign seasons (or if there was a high-impact storm, it was further down the list such as Sandy of 2012 or Michael of 2018). This might be the year that changes that.