ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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REDHurricane
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#481 Postby REDHurricane » Sat Jun 29, 2024 9:46 pm

Convection has wrapped all the way around the center, dual rotating hot towers are emerging, eye should start clearing out soon... it's officially go time, folks

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Last edited by REDHurricane on Sat Jun 29, 2024 9:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#482 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jun 29, 2024 9:46 pm

Unfortunately Beryl has all the ingredients favorable for continued rapid intensification in the short-term. The light to moderate easterly shear that had been affecting the system is subsiding, while the hurricane remains embedded in a large area of deep-layer
moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. The small and well-organized inner core likely means the hurricane should take full advantage of these pristine conditions, and both the GFS and ECMWF versions of SHIPS-RII show rapid intensification indices 7 to 10 times above climatology.


That is a scary discussion, especially since this is heading for populated areas :eek:
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#483 Postby Teban54 » Sat Jun 29, 2024 9:50 pm

NHC now calls for a 110 kt peak, just below Cat 4.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 10.4N 51.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 10.8N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 11.5N 57.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 12.3N 60.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 13.4N 64.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 14.6N 67.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 15.6N 71.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 17.0N 78.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 18.5N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#484 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Jun 29, 2024 9:51 pm

Starting to get the "fist" look as the easterly shear lets up. Storm is primed to ramp up during DMAX tonight.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#485 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jun 29, 2024 9:52 pm

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#486 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jun 29, 2024 9:53 pm

Teban54 wrote:NHC now calls for a 110 kt peak, just below Cat 4.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 10.4N 51.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 10.8N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 11.5N 57.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 12.3N 60.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 13.4N 64.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 14.6N 67.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 15.6N 71.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 17.0N 78.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 18.5N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin



WEll, there's your dennis or emily!
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#487 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Jun 29, 2024 9:55 pm

Honestly, if this keeps up we may have our first June major hurricane since 1966 tomorrow.

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#488 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jun 29, 2024 10:01 pm

Look, I'm only 22 years old right now. The last time something extraordinary like this happened was 2005. Back then, I was not a wx enthusiast obviously. It's surreal to be seeing this kind of storm in real time. I'll admit, I didn't even think it would be possible for a future season to get anywhere close to mimicking or rivaling what 2005 did in July. But now, there's a nonzero chance that we're looking at the strongest June/July Atlantic hurricane since that ferocious season.

What I'm more curious and concerned about is, who knows if we have a season in the future (near or distant) that has even warmer anomalies than 2024 and ends up producing this kind of storm in early June or even May, something that would have otherwise been totally crazy to even fathom in the past? Who knows? 2024 is showing it *might* be possible.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#489 Postby Weatherwatcher2018 » Sat Jun 29, 2024 10:04 pm

Track seems to be further south as of 11 pm
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#490 Postby Teban54 » Sat Jun 29, 2024 10:05 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:
Teban54 wrote:NHC now calls for a 110 kt peak, just below Cat 4.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 10.4N 51.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 10.8N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 11.5N 57.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 12.3N 60.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 13.4N 64.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 14.6N 67.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 15.6N 71.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 17.0N 78.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 18.5N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin



WEll, there's your dennis or emily!

I understand the Dennis and Emily comparisons, but neither achieved Cat 2 or above until they entered the Caribbean. The only storm to have done so in July or earlier was Bertha 2008, which became a Cat 3 on July 7 at 19.9N 51.6W (NE of where Beryl is expected to be) and peaked at that category.

(Allen shows up in the query below, as it formed on July 31 and the search tool includes any storm that existed in July. While it did reach Cat 3 before Barbados and Cat 4 right at the Lesser Antilles, it did so on August 4.)

Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#491 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Jun 29, 2024 10:06 pm

Looking at the Atlantic WV loop it sure looks like the ULL that is supposed to shear this after the islands is either weakening or being pushed out of the way

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#492 Postby Astromanía » Sat Jun 29, 2024 10:10 pm

I wouldn't be surprise if this was happening in the wpac or epac but this is atl in june!
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#493 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Jun 29, 2024 10:16 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Looking at the Atlantic WV loop it sure looks like the ULL that is supposed to shear this after the islands is either weakening or being pushed out of the way

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24


The shear will be from a trof digging down over the eastern US, reinforcing the TUTT cell to usher in southwesterly flow aloft over the Caribbean
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#494 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Jun 29, 2024 10:22 pm

Ridiculous!" :double:
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#495 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Jun 29, 2024 10:37 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Captain Barbossa's Tropical Cyclone Timeline:

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.

2. June 29th: There's a major Caribbean cruising, Cape Verde hurricane that is active.

:lol: :lol: :lol:


Aye lad! That be the 2024 edition of my timeline.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#496 Postby Xyls » Sat Jun 29, 2024 10:37 pm

Everyone keeps drawing comparisons to Dennis/Emily but I think Maria may be the more apt comparison for this system.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#497 Postby Hurricane Mike » Sat Jun 29, 2024 10:38 pm

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#498 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Jun 29, 2024 10:40 pm

Xyls wrote:Everyone keeps drawing comparisons to Dennis/Emily but I think Maria may be the more apt comparison for this system.


Maria was in the heart of the season though.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#499 Postby Xyls » Sat Jun 29, 2024 10:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Xyls wrote:Everyone keeps drawing comparisons to Dennis/Emily but I think Maria may be the more apt comparison for this system.


Maria was in the heart of the season though.


Yes, but in many ways the conditions now are more similar to heart of the season. I think people keep looking for reasons why the model is going to fall apart instead of looking at the situation and the reality is that the likelihood of an intense RI tomorrow is pretty damn high. Similar to what Maria did. Now whether this will get through the Caribbean without weakening is uncertain. But I think this storm would be best looked at as a hybrid Maria/Dennis right now.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Hurricane - Discussion

#500 Postby Woofde » Sat Jun 29, 2024 10:48 pm

This warm spot looks like a good spot for the eye to pop out. We are nearing that stage at the moment.Image
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