ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Teban54]

[CrazyC83]

In about 8 hours or so we should know the true intensity once Recon gets there.

[Xyls]

In about 8 hours or so we should know the true intensity once Recon gets there.

Will be eagerly awaiting the results. This really looks like Maria to me and I fear this could be a Maria level event if it hits any of the islands with how fast this is intensifying. Maybe not Cat 5 but I could see a run at Beryl becoming the first Cat 4 in June tomorrow with this structure... I don't know if either Barbados or St. Vincent have had any major hurricanes like this potentially staring them down in modern history?

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that I believe there is a non-zero chance we're looking at a Category 4 hit on the Windward Islands. This storm is not wasting time intensifying, and while I understand that it's June, the conditions in the Atlantic right now more resemble what you would see in August or September.

[tolakram]

saved loop



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[weeniepatrol]

Guess I'll be the first to say it: this theoretically has a 130-140 kt ceiling. It's consistently organized quicker than NHC has indicated. Their forecast could easily be too conservative. All it would take is a clear eye, and at this rate we could see that by tomorrow evening.

Ha! posted with seconds to spare

[Hurricane2022]

I'm now expecting a bonafide 150 - 160 mph MH Beryl near/over Windward Islands. This isn't a hot take, be careful because this girl is a bomb!

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Everyone keeps drawing comparisons to Dennis/Emily but I think Maria may be the more apt comparison for this system.

I know I mentioned ‘07 Dean earlier but I was thinking maybe ‘80 Allen as well.

[tolakram]

It looks better than it did 5 minutes ago when I grabbed that image. I'd say we will have a clear eye in hours, if not faster.

[NDG]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUN 2024 Time : 031021 UTC
Lat : 10:24:34 N Lon : 51:15:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 981.0mb/ 79.6kt

[REDHurricane]

Eye juuuust starting to peek out now as can be seen in the last few frames... based on everything the experts have said today (e.g. the most recent NHC discussion using the words "unfortunately" and "pristine conditions" to describe what's about to happen as well as Dr. Cowan's explanation of the highly favorable environment Beryl will have to work with as it approaches the islands) makes me think it's going to significantly outperform the Cat 3 currently forecast at landfall:

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wow, absolutely blew my expectations out of the water. I think a major hurricane atp is nearly a given.

[Zonacane]

Very rare, and terrifying, to see a storm outperform the HWRF

[chaser1]

The one (hopefully) saving grace might be the one key element allowing Beryl to rapidly deepen. It's strongest winds will naturally be colocated around its very small inner core. To what extent that might spare one or more islands from Beryl's most intense wrath, remains to be seen. The other silver lining is Beryl's fast forward speed. This will hopefully minimize the extent of its thrashing

[Beef Stew]

Curious to see what recon finds upon arriving in the morning. Assuming no unforeseen hiccups, I think a category 3 by then is certainly a possibility.

[CrazyC83]

At this point, I would estimate it at 90 kt based on what we are looking at. That looks like T5.0 to me right now.

[redingtonbeach]

I rarely post but have to chime in knowing this thread will be iconic for decades. I'm not a Met and I realize the pros are saying a Belize'ish SA hit, but if I lived anywhere from Tampico MX to Galveston TX I'd be thinking hard about making preparations. The pros/models also suggest this will be Cat 1'ish at landfall - I certainly wouldn't put my savings on that envelope after watching all the late intensifications we've witnessed the last few years. And since I'm on the west coast of Florida, I'm especially concerned with the trailing wave. Pros/models suggest it may not be much to worry about once it hits/if it runs up into/ the GOM. We'll see... I'm not banking on that. Not yet. Forecasting is significantly better than 5-10 years ago but never forget its not 100%. Stay safe everyone.

[Deshaunrob17]

Is this one of those rare situations where a stronger storm would move more south?
Models been really trending south in the short term.

[CrazyC83]

Is this one of those rare situations where a stronger storm would move more south?
Models been really trending south in the short term.

Possibly, since the upper level ridge is so strong and the steering currents aloft would push it farther south (at least through Day 3 or so) as a stronger storm is affected by that flow much more.

[Blinhart]

I am watching to see where He goes in the Caribbean, if he goes over or North of Jamaica, I think any where on the GoM Coast has a chance of getting hit, the further South the more likely it will be Corpus Christi South.