ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Teban54]

[zzzh]

The initial wind speed is set to 85 kt,
closest to the CIMSS Satellite Consensus Estimates, and could be
too low.

[dexterlabio]

Seeing this right now, it is looking more likely that 2017 will be a walk in the park compared to what 2024 is shaping up to be for the Atlantic.

[3090]

:double:
https://i.postimg.cc/7PcY4N39/goes16-ir-meso1-3.gif

Holy MOG! Nothing nice here for the islands. And who knows what lies ahead, after the islands! All of the weather patterns out ahead of Beryl are now unfolding in a bad way. But we shall see, if this trend continues!

Wherever Beryl makes its landfall, the rest of this hurricane season may not matter much, for that specific area unfortunately.

[Teban54]

Now forecast Cat 4 peak through the islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 10.7N 53.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 11.1N 55.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 11.8N 59.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 12.9N 62.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 16.3N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 17.8N 80.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 19.1N 87.1W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[kevin]

I've never conditions this favorable for an early-season MDR storm since I started lurking here in 2017. If we're ever gonna get a Dennis or Emily repeat this is it. Even though in terms of track it's way more similar to Emily or maybe something like Dean.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hammy]

:double:
https://i.postimg.cc/7PcY4N39/goes16-ir-meso1-3.gif

crazy how much things changed over a half hour

[Blinhart]

https://i.imgur.com/QfyiMdk.gif

This is scary for the islands.

[Stratton23]

I think its within the realm of possibility this makes an attempt to get to cat 5 status, very very impressive structure,

[Teban54]

:double:
https://i.postimg.cc/7PcY4N39/goes16-ir-meso1-3.gif

[Hurrilurker]

Deep convection fully wrapped around the eye now. Recon on the way, will be very interesting to see what it finds, they may be sampling during prime RI.

[3090]

:double:
https://i.postimg.cc/7PcY4N39/goes16-ir-meso1-3.gif

crazy how much things changed over a half hour

GCANE has some really good insight on Beryl’s recent intensification. The posts were on point as to what we are seeing now!! Excellent posts.

[GCANE]

NHC calls Cat 4 at the islands

[GCANE]

:double:
https://i.postimg.cc/7PcY4N39/goes16-ir-meso1-3.gif

crazy how much things changed over a half hour

GCANE has some really good insight on Beryl’s recent intensification. The posts were on point as to what we are seeing now!! Excellent posts.

Much thanks 3090

[3090]

crazy how much things changed over a half hour

GCANE has some really good insight on Beryl’s recent intensification. The posts were on point as to what we are seeing now!! Excellent posts.

Much thanks 3090

No problem. Those posts you made, were so informative for an amateur weather junkie like me, I thought it was worth mentioning. They were so on POINT!! Props to you.

[869MB]

 https://x.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1807345433133654271





 https://x.com/NWSKeyWest/status/1807345523554455990

[MississippiWx]

What a beast. Just incredible first light visible imagery.

[Stormybajan]

GOOD MORNING TO BEAUTY AND THE BEAST, HURRICANE BERYL!!


Certainly a veryyyy serious situation going on here with Beryl breaking records all over the place, yesterday I said watching Beryl's process could tell a bit of the conditions we had in 1933 for the 1933 trinidad hurricane which hit as a 85 mph cat 1 in late June (1933 being the most active hurricane season on record for ACE in the Atlantic) and my goodness!! Possible cat 3/4 moving through the windwards in June!! Absolutely monstrous , everyone knew this year could be one of the most active in history and its certainly starting that way with Beryl, sadly this monster is going to hit somewhere HARD. The best scenario population wise would be to fly south of Barbados, squeeze through the gap between Grenada, the grenadines and St.Vincent! Certainly giving Ivan vibes, and so damn early in the season too!! would definitely be trouble if she explodes even more rapidly than forecast and gains a bit more latitude than forecast...possible major EAST of the windward islands in June is beyond a red flag, it might be a white flag for the peak season to come

[longhorn2004]

High pressure sitting over Texas and it’s not budging. Seeing a Mexico landfall.