ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[3090]

High pressure sitting over Texas and it’s not budging. Seeing a Mexico landfall.

Too far out yet for any landfall area beyond the YP.

[GCANE]

High pressure sitting over Texas and it’s not budging. Seeing a Mexico landfall.

An Omega Block in the Bearing Sea is forecasted that stalls all movement of weather in the CONUS.
However, it looks like it may weaken the intensity of the high pressure, which may allow Beryl to shift more north in it's forecasted track.

[jlauderdal]

NHC calls Cat 4 at the islands

Prepare for one category higher, not that it's different for a 4 vs.5. At least 3 landfalls are possible. Hopefully, this will wake up anyone who didn't take the aggressive seasonal forecasts seriously. The entire basin was put on notice in late spring, and now it's clear the potential for this season. Don't get lulled into any breaks(if and when they occur). My monthly generator start was yesterday. 15 mins, let it warm up, attach a hair dryer, heat gun, or something like that..let it run for a few mins, remove attached items, let it run for a few mins, shut down your generator. Ensure you have enough oil for at least 2 weeks-oil will be harder to get than gas; generators require frequent oil changes; check your manual, its based on hours used. Minimum 7 days fuel supply; I go 10 days non-stop gen usage and could go far longer if we were to shut it down and conserve. Take storm surge seriously; run from the water, and hide from the wind. Good Luck; there is no reason to think the United States won't see at least one major hurricane landfall this season. We are sitting on a time bomb in SE Florida, too lucky for too long.

[Nimbus]

Recon finding some drier air at 500 MB out ahead of the storm but plenty of moisture at the inflow level so that is unfortunately likely to mix out as the storm approaches the windwards. First pass through the eyewall should be interesting.

[Stratton23]

longhorn2004 yeah i wouldnt bet on that

[aspen]

Recon finding some drier air at 500 MB out ahead of the storm but plenty of moisture at the inflow level so that is unfortunately likely to mix out as the storm approaches the windwards. First pass through the eyewall should be interesting.

Wonder if the core is robust enough where the bit of dry air won’t be much of an issue. Or it could explain the slower intensification forecast by the hurricane models for the next 12-ish hours.

I’m going to predict they find a low-end Cat 2, very close to the NHC’s 5am forecast.

[hurricaneCW]

Recon finding some drier air at 500 MB out ahead of the storm but plenty of moisture at the inflow level so that is unfortunately likely to mix out as the storm approaches the windwards. First pass through the eyewall should be interesting.

Wonder if the core is robust enough where the bit of dry air won’t be much of an issue. Or it could explain the slower intensification forecast by the hurricane models for the next 12-ish hours.

I’m going to predict they find a low-end Cat 2, very close to the NHC’s 5am forecast.

This is major hurricane imo. The IR/Visible presentation alone justifies it. 100KTS is my guess

[3090]

Recon finding some drier air at 500 MB out ahead of the storm but plenty of moisture at the inflow level so that is unfortunately likely to mix out as the storm approaches the windwards. First pass through the eyewall should be interesting.

Wonder if the core is robust enough where the bit of dry air won’t be much of an issue. Or it could explain the slower intensification forecast by the hurricane models for the next 12-ish hours.

I’m going to predict they find a low-end Cat 2, very close to the NHC’s 5am forecast.

This is major hurricane imo. The IR/Visible presentation alone justifies it. 100KTS is my guess

The report of drier air may now be old data looking at the most recent visible images. At least to my amateur eyes so I don’t know for sure.

[zzzh]

Recon data gets stalled as it enters the storm

[Sciencerocks]

[jlauderdal]

Recon finding some drier air at 500 MB out ahead of the storm but plenty of moisture at the inflow level so that is unfortunately likely to mix out as the storm approaches the windwards. First pass through the eyewall should be interesting.

Wonder if the core is robust enough where the bit of dry air won’t be much of an issue. Or it could explain the slower intensification forecast by the hurricane models for the next 12-ish hours.

I’m going to predict they find a low-end Cat 2, very close to the NHC’s 5am forecast.

This is major hurricane imo. The IR/Visible presentation alone justifies it. 100KTS is my guess

Recon is heading in. We will have a much better understanding of the structure shortly, but there is no doubt this is a very healthy system that maximizes the conditions.

[kevin]

Didn't expect that we would have such a big recon mission this early into the season. I'm predicting 95 kt, 973 mb.

[aspen]

Recon data gets stalled as it enters the storm

Classic AF lol

[Keldeo1997]

968MB......

[zzzh]

[BobHarlem]

Am I reading it wrong or did that last recon bit we did get have a 969mb xtrap pressure?

[Teban54]

NW quad: 108 kt FL, 94 kt SFMR
SE quad: 101 kt FL, 107 kt SFMR
Pressure: 968.7 mb

[aspen]

Recon finding some drier air at 500 MB out ahead of the storm but plenty of moisture at the inflow level so that is unfortunately likely to mix out as the storm approaches the windwards. First pass through the eyewall should be interesting.

Wonder if the core is robust enough where the bit of dry air won’t be much of an issue. Or it could explain the slower intensification forecast by the hurricane models for the next 12-ish hours.

I’m going to predict they find a low-end Cat 2, very close to the NHC’s 5am forecast.

This is major hurricane imo. The IR/Visible presentation alone justifies it. 100KTS is my guess

Looks like you’re right. First pass supports 95-100 kt

[cycloneye]

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 108kt at 11:08z
Peak SFMR: 94kt at 11:08z Minimum Extrap. Pressure: 968.7mb at 11:12z

[Xyls]

Yup, this storm is going to be the second coming of Maria imo.