ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Beryl is either at or very close to major hurricane status.

This is history to see unfold.

[kevin]

First pass supports 100 kt by blending SFMR and FL*0.9, even without using any undersampling factor. We're witnessing a historic hurricane.

[Xyls]

I think this thing is going to get Cat 4 later today becoming the first June Cat 4. And potentially make a run at Cat 5.

Maria in June. Who would've thunk?

The models are seriously underestimating the intensity this thing is probably going to have.

[Hurricane2022]

I just woke up, I confess that I was so surprised that I was also a little traumatized

[Hurricane2022]

Guess I'll be the first to say it: this theoretically has a 130-140 kt ceiling. It's consistently organized quicker than NHC has indicated. Their forecast could easily be too conservative. All it would take is a clear eye, and at this rate we could see that by tomorrow evening.

Ha! posted with seconds to spare

Sorry my friend!!

[zzzh]

dropsonde 969mb

[RT23]

Beryl is either at or very close to major hurricane status.

This is history to see unfold.

https://i.imgur.com/cXq4OCr.jpeg

What is the likelihood this can still have an impact on Barbados?

[Keldeo1997]

[hurricaneCW]

You don't want to see 1933 records getting broken. A major MDR June cane is unheard of.

This will be a wild season. The only upside is if tracking favors a lot of southern sliders though I'm not too sure about that. High pressure is actually not particularly strong in the west Atlantic.

[Buck]

They’ve updated but there’s a typo… it says category 3 but still listing 100 mph. I don’t want to paste it here since it’s incorrect.

[Hurricane2022]

...BERYL IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY...

[Xyls]

Beryl is either at or very close to major hurricane status.

This is history to see unfold.

https://i.imgur.com/cXq4OCr.jpeg

What is the likelihood this can still have an impact on Barbados?

I mean I think Barbados is going to get impacts either way. It may not get a direct landfall but this thing is going to be so close that preparations should be made as if this is expected to be a direct hit at this point as the margin of error that it wobbles can't be discounted.

St. Vincent and Grenadines on the other hand. You are potentially looking at the worst hurricane ever to hit your island.

[zzzh]

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

Lol, Blake forgot to change the wind

[Keldeo1997]

There is some banding but no EWRC anytime soon

[Xyls]

You don't want to see 1933 records getting broken. A major MDR June cane is unheard of.

This will be a wild season. The only upside is if tracking favors a lot of southern sliders though I'm not too sure about that. High pressure is actually not particularly strong in the west Atlantic.

Well Southern Sliders are still bad for somebody even if not the US so not sure that is such a win.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

There you go; Category 3 official.
First Atlantic June major hurricane since Alma in 166.

[kevin]

100 kt / 968 mb

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 53.9 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A continued quick westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.
On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move
across the Windward Islands early on Monday and across the
southeastern Caribbean Sea Monday night and Tuesday.

Aircraft data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts, making
Beryl a very dangerous category 3 hurricane. Continued rapid
strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and Beryl is
expected to become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane
before it reaches the Windward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 968 mb (28.58 inches).

[GCANE]

...BERYL IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY...

Just a hair above 10N
Something is not right here

[Stratton23]

Im gonna go with a bold prediction and say this becomes a cat 5 by the end of this day