ATL: BERYL - Advisories

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.1N 41.9W
ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the
progress of this system. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will
likely be required for portions of the area tonight or early
Saturday.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 9.1 North, longitude 41.9 West. The depression
is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A relatively
quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the
next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to
move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm tonight or early Saturday and a hurricane
in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands.
This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.




Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024

The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring over the
central tropical Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized deep
convection in bands around the center. In addition, visible
satellite images show that the circulation has tightened, and the
center now appears well-defined. Thus, a tropical depression has
formed, and the initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the
latest Dvorak classifications. Development this far east in late
June is unusual, in fact, there have only been a few storms in
history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical
Atlantic this early in the year.

The depression is moving westward at 15 kt. A strong subtropical
ridge to the north of the system should keep it moving relatively
quickly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days.
The system might gain a little more latitude toward the end of the
forecast period when it nears a weakness in the subtropical ridge.
There is a fair amount of spread in the model guidance, especially
in the day 3-5 time frame, due to differences in the strength of the
ridge and the aforementioned weakness. The NHC track forecast lies
near the consensus aids and is slightly south of the middle of the
guidance envelope. Based on this forecast, the system is expected
to move across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday and
track across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the
middle of next week.

Typically, the atmospheric environment is unfavorable for
intensification in this portion of the Atlantic basin in late June.
However, the overall atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear
conducive for steady strengthening during the next few days.
Accordingly, the official forecast calls for strengthening and shows
the depression becoming a tropical storm tonight or early Saturday
and then a hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. It
should be noted that some of the model guidance is quite aggressive
and a fair amount are higher than the official forecast. For
example, the hurricane regional models show the system becoming a
major hurricane and the GFS model shows the system deepening below
970 mb prior to reaching the Windward Islands.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Two is expected to strengthen and be a
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or
Monday, bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds,
and dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands later tonight
or early Saturday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific
details of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 9.1N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 9.4N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 10.1N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 10.7N 51.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 11.3N 54.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 12.0N 58.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 13.0N 61.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 17.5N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BERYL...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.3N 43.6W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress
of this system. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be
required for portions of the area early Saturday.




Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024

Since becoming a depression earlier this afternoon, deep convection
has continued to burst with infrared satellite imagery depicting
cold cloud tops down to -80C. The center of circulation remains on
the eastern side of the deep convection, but the system is gradually
becoming better organized with banding features and better vertical
alignment. Intensity estimates have increased this cycle with
subjective Dvorak estimates of T2.0/T2.5 from SAB and TAFB,
respectively. Objective Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS are around
34-36 kt as well. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial
intensity for this advisory is set to 35 kt, and the depression has
strengthened into Tropical Storm Beryl. Tropical Storm Beryl is one
of only a few storms in history that have formed over the central or
eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year.

Tropical Storm Beryl is moving westward at 16 kt, steered by a
strong subtropical ridge to the north. This should keep Beryl moving
swiftly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days,
with the model guidance remains tightly clustered as the system
moves towards the Windward Islands. There is a little more spread in
the model guidance beyond day 3, when the system nears a weakness in
the subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast lies near the
consensus aids near the middle of the guidance envelope, and is very
similar to the previous forecast track. Based on this forecast, the
system is expected to move across the Windward Islands Sunday night
and Monday and track across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea
through the middle of next week.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions, atypical for this time of year,
are fairly favorable for strengthening the next few days with warm
sea surface temperatures, plenty of moisture, and low vertical wind
shear. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady
strengthening and shows the system becoming a hurricane before it
reaches the Windward Islands. The NHC intensity forecast is very
similar to the previous advisory. It should be noted that some of
the model guidance is still quite aggressive and a fair amount are
even higher than the official forecast. Some hurricane regional
models and consensus aids show the system becoming a major hurricane
prior to reaching the Windward Islands.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen and be a
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or
Monday, bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds,
and dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands early
Saturday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific
details of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 9.3N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 9.7N 46.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 10.4N 49.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 11.0N 53.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 11.7N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 12.5N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 13.6N 63.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 16.0N 71.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 17.8N 77.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 45.5W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch
for Barbados.




Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

Satellite imagery this morning shows that Beryl has become better
organized, with the formation of a cold curved convective band near
the center and over the western semicircle. However, AMSR-2
microwave data near 04Z suggested that the center of this convective
curvature may have been displaced a little west of the low-level
center. Based on the various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is increased to a
possibly conservative 45 kt. The cyclone currently has good
anticyclonic outflow, especially in the western semicircle.

The initial motion is 280/18 kt. Beryl is on the south side of a
strong subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the cyclone
quickly westward or west-northwestward toward and through the
Windward Islands during the next 2-3 days. After that time, there is
some divergence in the track guidance as Beryl approaches a weakness
in the subtropical ridge near and east of Florida. The GFS-based
guidance calls for the storm to continue west- northwestward, while
the ECMWF and UKMET models show a more westward motion. The
consensus models lean more toward a west-northwestward motion, and
the official forecast follows this guidance. The new forecast track
has only minor changes from the previous track.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the western tropical
Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean Sea are abnormally favorable for
strengthening, and the rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS
model are showing a significant chance of rapid intensification. The
new intensity forecast continues to call for Beryl to become a
hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands, and it now calls for
a peak intensity of 95 kt in 60-72 h. This peak could be
conservative, as several of the intensity guidance models forecast
Beryl to become a major hurricane. After 72 h, the storm is
expected to encounter increasing westerly shear, which should cause
some weakening.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane
when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday,
bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and
dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Barbados. Additional
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches, and possibly Warnings, will
likely be required for portions of the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands later today.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific
details of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 9.8N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 10.3N 48.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 11.0N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 11.6N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 12.4N 58.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 13.3N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 14.4N 65.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 16.8N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 19.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 46.8W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 47.8W
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Martinique. The government of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane
Watch for the island. The government of Barbados has issued a
Hurricane Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands. The
government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Grenada and a Tropical Storm Watch for Tobago.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Tobago

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely
be required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 47.8 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A relatively
quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the
next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to
move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is now forecast, and Beryl
is expected to become a major hurricane before it reaches the
Windward Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

Satellite images indicate that Beryl has been strengthening at a
quick pace. The storm is now more symmetric with the low-level
center located beneath an expanding central dense overcast feature.
Showers and thunderstorms are also organized in curved bands on the
west side of the circulation. The initial intensity is increased to
55 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and Beryl is
nearing hurricane strength.

Beryl has been wobbling around, but the general motion has been
westward at a fast 20 kt. A strong subtropical ridge should keep
the storm moving generally westward at only a slightly slower
forward speed for the next few days. This motion should take Beryl
across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday, and then
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea early next week. By
the middle of next week, the cyclone might gain a little more
latitude as it feels some influence from a weakness in the ridge,
before another ridge builds to its northwest. The NHC track
forecast has been nudged southward based on the trends in the latest
model runs.

The storm has been on a steady strengthening trend since it formed
yesterday, and now that its structure is more symmetric and compact,
it likely will have an opportunity to rapidly intensify given the
low wind shear conditions. The new NHC intensity forecast
explicitly calls for rapid strengthening and shows Beryl becoming a
major hurricane before moving across the Windward Islands. The
environment becomes a little less conducive after Beryl moves into
the Caribbean Sea, and some increase in shear will likely end its
strengthening phase and cause slow weakening toward the end of the
period. This forecast shows more aggressive strengthening in the
short term and a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous
one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to rapidly strengthen and be a major hurricane
when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday,
bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening
storm surge. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the
Windward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the
Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific
details of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 10.0N 47.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 10.4N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 11.1N 53.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 11.8N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 12.6N 60.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 13.7N 64.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 14.9N 68.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 18.7N 81.4W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL IS NOW A HURRICANE AND FORECAST TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 49.3W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Tobago




Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

Beryl continues to rapidly strengthen, and has now become a
hurricane. Satellite images show an expanding central dense
overcast feature, and recent microwave images indicate that a
partial eyewall has formed. This intensity estimate is in agreement
with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB of T4.0/65 kt. Beryl is a
compact tropical cyclone, with its tropical-storm-force winds
estimated to extend up to 50 n mi from the center. Both the NOAA
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate
Beryl tomorrow, and the data they collect will be very helpful in
assessing the system's structure and intensity.

Beryl continues to wobble around, but the general motion has been
westward at a quick 19 kt. A strong subtropical ridge should keep
the hurricane moving generally westward at only a slightly slower
forward speed for the next couple of days. This motion should take
Beryl across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. A
weakness in the ridge could cause Beryl to gain a little more
latitude during the early and middle portions of next week, before
turning back slightly to the left as another ridge builds to the
northwest of Beryl. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one and in fairly good agreement with the various consensus
models.

Now that Beryl has developed a compact inner core, it seems likely
that it will continue to intensify quickly since the hurricane will
remain in near ideal environmental conditions during the next day or
two. The NHC intensity forecast is again nudged upward in the short
term, and shows Beryl becoming a dangerous major hurricane prior to
it reaching the Windward Islands. Beyond a couple of days, when
Beryl is moving across the Caribbean, an increase in shear should
end the strengthening trend and induce some weakening toward the end
of the forecast period. The intensity models are coming into better
agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is roughly near
the middle of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it
reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday,
bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening
storm surge. Hurricane Watch and Warnings are in effect for much
of the Windward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the
Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific
details of the track or intensity forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 10.1N 49.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 10.6N 51.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 11.3N 55.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 12.0N 58.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 13.1N 62.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 14.3N 66.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 17.3N 77.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL FORECAST TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 50.3W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Martinique. The government of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane
Warning for St. Lucia. The government of Barbados has issued a
Hurricane Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands. The
government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Grenada and a Tropical Storm Warning for Tobago.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 51.2W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica




Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

Beryl continues to strengthen rapidly this evening. Cold convective
cloud tops between -70 to -80 C are now wrapping fully around the
center after earlier being confined to its southern semicircle.
After the prior advisory, a late arriving SSMIS microwave pass
revealed a small closed eyewall now exists. The latest subjective
and objective intensity estimates range between 65 to 80 kt and
based on the continued improved structure on satellite imagery, the
intensity is set at 75 kt, towards the upper end of those estimates.
As earlier mentioned, both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunters will investigate Beryl tomorrow morning, which will provide
our first in-situ data to assess the hurricane.

Beryl has maintained a just north of due west fast motion this
evening, estimated at 280/17 kt. An extensive mid-level ridge
remains positioned poleward of the hurricane, and Beryl should
maintain a westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar speed
over the next couple of days. This track will take the hurricane
over the Windward Islands overnight on Sunday into Monday. A subtle
weakness in this ridging in the 24-48 hour period should help the
hurricane gain a bit of latitude before the ridge builds back in
over the southeastern U.S. by the middle of next week, likely
resulting in a turn back more westward by the end of the forecast
period. The NHC forecast track is just a touch left and slower
compared to the prior advisory, but remains very close to a blend of
the consensus aids HCCA and TVCN.

Unfortunately Beryl has all the ingredients favorable for continued
rapid intensification in the short-term. The light to moderate
easterly shear that had been affecting the system is subsiding,
while the hurricane remains embedded in a large area of deep-layer
moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. The small and
well-organized inner core likely means the hurricane should take
full advantage of these pristine conditions, and both the GFS and
ECMWF versions of SHIPS-RII show rapid intensification indices 7 to
10 times above climatology. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast
will explicitly show rapid intensification over the next day, making
Beryl a very dangerous Category 3 hurricane before it moves across
the Windward islands by tomorrow night. Once Beryl enters the
Caribbean, there could be a marked increase in westerly vertical
wind shear as a strong easterly low-level jet, common for this time
of year in the eastern Caribbean Sea, will keep Beryl moving quickly
westward against lighter upper-level upper-level easterlies
partially eroded by a deep-layer trough off the Eastern Seaboard.
Thus some weakening is forecast after 48 hours as Beryl moves
further into the Caribbean. The NHC intensity forecast remains close
to the reliable consensus aids and now shows a peak intensity of 110
kt in 36 hours, though a few of the regional-hurricane models do
peak Beryl stronger than shown here.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it
reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing
destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge.
Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the
Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details
of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 10.4N 51.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 10.8N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 11.5N 57.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 12.3N 60.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 13.4N 64.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 14.6N 67.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 15.6N 71.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 17.0N 78.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 18.5N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...BERYL CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...FORECAST TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 53.1W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica




Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

Beryl's structure is quickly evolving this morning as it undergoes
rapid intensification. Recent GOES 1-minute satellite imagery
shows the development of an eye, with cooling cloud tops in the
eyewall and a warming eye. The initial wind speed is set to 85 kt,
closest to the CIMSS Satellite Consensus Estimates, and could be
too low. Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft are en route to get a
better estimate of the initial intensity for the next forecast
advisory.

Now that the core has solidified based on a recent AMSR2 microwave
pass, continued rapid intensification looks likely over the next 24
hours while Beryl is over SSTs near 29C and within shear less than
10 kt. There's no obvious reason it shouldn't become a very
powerful hurricane before impacting the Windward Islands. Thus,
the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to explicitly show
rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl an extremely
dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it moves across the Windward
islands by tomorrow night. Once Beryl enters the Caribbean,
increasing shear will likely cause the hurricane to level off in
intensity, then weaken through about midweek. The intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one, but the NHC forecast is
raised at day 5 as more models are showing lessening shear in the
western Caribbean.

The hurricane is moving slightly north of due west, estimated at
280/18 kt. There aren't any significant track changes from the
previous advisory with an extensive mid-level ridge north of Beryl
expected to steer the system westward or west-northwestward for
several days. Model guidance remains in tight agreement on the
forecast track, and the NHC track prediction is basically an update
of the previous one.

This is a very serious situation developing for the Windward
Islands, so please listen to your local government and emergency
management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category 4
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands early Monday,
bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening
storm surge. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the
Windward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the
Windward Islands tonight and Monday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details
of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 10.7N 53.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 11.1N 55.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 11.8N 59.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 12.9N 62.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 16.3N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 17.8N 80.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 19.1N 87.1W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 7A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

Corrected maximum sustained winds in Summary

...BERYL IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 53.9W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad has upgraded the Tropical Storm Warning
to a Hurricane Warning for Tobago.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...VERY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 54.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Trinidad.






Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

Data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters this morning
indicate that Beryl continues to rapidly intensify. Based on the
data collected, the minimum pressure has fallen significantly to
964 mb and the maximum wind speed is now up to 105 kt. Although
Beryl is still on the small side, the wind field is a little larger
than previously noted with the tropical-storm-force winds estimated
to extend up to 100 n mi from the center and hurricane-force winds
up to 25 n mi from the eye. Satellite images show that Beryl has a
classic major hurricane pattern with a clear and circular eye and
symmetric convective pattern surrounding it.

Beryl continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt steered by a
strong subtropical ridge to its north. The hurricane has been
moving a little to the south of most of the model predictions over
the past day or two. A continued quick west to west-northwest
motion is forecast during the next several days as the ridge remains
the primary steering feature. This should take the core of Beryl
across the Windward Islands Monday morning and then across much the
Caribbean Sea during the following few days. The NHC track forecast
has been nudged to the south of the previous prediction and lies
close to the various consensus aids.

The major hurricane has rapidly intensified since it formed a
couple of days ago, and given the continued conducive environmental
conditions and compact inner core, it will likely strengthen some
more through tonight. Beryl is expected to be a very dangerous
category 4 hurricane when it moves through Windward Islands. The
models show a gradual increase in shear when the system moves
across the Caribbean Sea and that should cause Beryl's intensity to
level off and then gradually weaken. However, Beryl is expected to
remain a significant hurricane through the next 5 days. The
intensity forecast is a little above the previous one and in good
agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category 4
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands. This is a very
dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to
local government and emergency management officials for any
preparedness and/or evacuation orders. All preparations should be
rushed to completion today.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a
life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected
when Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the
highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and
Grenada beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in
effect for much of the Windward Islands.

3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the
Windward Islands through Monday.

4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week and interests in
Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the remainder of the
northwestern Caribbean should monitor its progress, There is large
forecast uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and users should not focus on
the specific details of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 10.7N 54.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 11.2N 57.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 12.1N 60.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 13.3N 64.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 14.6N 68.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 15.6N 72.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 16.4N 75.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 17.8N 82.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 19.2N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

$$

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1135 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND BERYL NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate
that Beryl has strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 1135 AM AST...1535 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 54.9W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM E OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

$$

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL APPROACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 55.6W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHE

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL APPROACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 56.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for the entire south
coast of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic to Anse
d'Hainault.





Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

After rapidly strengthening for two days straight, Beryl's intensity
appears to have leveled off. The extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane has a circular 10 n mi eye with mesovorticies within it.
However, the convection in the eyewall has become a little less
symmetric over the past few hours as it has eroded a bit on the
south side. The initial intensity is held at 115 kt, which is
near the high end of the latest satellite estimates. Both the NOAA
and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beryl
again later this evening.

Beryl continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt steered by a
strong subtropical ridge to its north. A continued relatively
quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the
next several days as subtropical ridging remains the primary
steering feature. Only a minor shift to the north has been made
this cycle, following the trend in the latest models.

Fluctuations in strength are common in major hurricanes in conducive
environments, and it is expected that Beryl will also fluctuate in
strength for the next day or so. There is high confidence that
Beryl will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall
in the Windward Islands. As the hurricane tracks across the
Caribbean Sea, there likely will be a gradual increase in wind
shear, which should induce a slow weakening trend. However, it
should be emphasized that Beryl is forecast to remain a significant
hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region. The
NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and in good
agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous Category 4
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands. This is a very
dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to
local government and emergency management officials for any
preparedness and/or evacuation orders. All preparations should be
rushed to completion today.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a
life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when
Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest
risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada
beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect
for much of the Windward Islands.

3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the
Windward Islands through Monday.

4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Watch
has been issued for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should monitor its progress.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 11.1N 56.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 11.7N 59.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 12.8N 62.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 14.2N 66.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 16.4N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 17.3N 77.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 18.8N 84.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 20.3N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

$$

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL CLOSING IN ON THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 57.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 260 MI...480 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the island of Trinidad.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...BERYL STILL A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 58.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES



Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

There are a few pieces of evidence that show that Beryl is in the
middle of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The clear eye seen on
infrared satellite earlier today has become a little more clouded
over during the past few hours. In addition, data from the last leg
through Beryl from both the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunters indicated concentric eyewalls, which also matches current
radar imagery we are receiving from Barbados Meteorological Service.
An earlier SSMIS microwave pass at 2150 UTC also showed a formative
outer moat forming outside the small inner eyewall. In response to
the evolving structure, 700-mb flight-level winds from the NOAA and
Air Force planes are a little lower than observed earlier today, and
the latest round of Dvorak estimates also support a slightly lower
intensity. However, the initial intensity will remain at 115 kt for
this advisory, given a couple of dropsonde observations in the NE
quadrant of Beryl's inner eyewall.

Aircraft fixes indicate Beryl continues to move quickly westward
at 280/17 kt. There isn't much change with the track forecast
philosophy, as a extensive mid-level ridge poleward of Beryl should
maintain its westward to west-northwest motion for the next few days
as it move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern
Caribbean Sea. The ridge does become positioned more northwest of
Beryl towards the end of the forecast period, potentially allowing
the hurricane to slow down gradually once it reaches the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. The track guidance this cycle is quite
similar to the previous cycle, and thus the latest NHC track
forecast is also quite similar to the prior advisory.

Given the evolution to Beryl's inner core structure tonight due to
the aforementioned ERC, it would not be surprising to see a
short-term fluctuation down in Beryl's peak winds, though Beryl is
expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as it crosses through
the Windward Islands tomorrow morning. In fact, there could also be
a bit of restrengthening after the ERC completes in the northwestern
Caribbean, and that is reflected in the short-term forecast. After
48 hours, a subtle upper-level trough to Beryl's north could induce
a bit more westerly vertical wind shear over the hurricane, and some
gradual weakening continues to be shown after 48 hours. However, it
should be emphasized that Beryl is forecast to remain a significant
hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region, though
more prominent weakening is likely if Beryl crosses the Yucatan
between days 4-5 as shown in the latest forecast. The NHC intensity
forecast remains in good agreement with the consensus aids, and is
only slightly adjusted from the prior advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands tomorrow morning.
This is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas
should listen to local government and emergency management officials
for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders. These preparations
should have been completed today as significant impacts will begin
tomorrow morning.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-
threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl
passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk
of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada
beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect
for much of the Windward Islands.

3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the
Windward Islands through Monday.

4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Watch is
in effect for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should monitor its progress and additional Watches and Warnings will
likely be required this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 11.5N 58.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 12.2N 60.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 13.4N 64.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 14.8N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 15.9N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 16.7N 75.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 17.6N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 20.7N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

$$

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...BERYL TAKING AIM AT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 59.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF GRENADA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES




Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

Beryl appears to be in the late stages of an eyewall replacement
cycle, with the Barbados radar showing a larger eye becoming
dominant with only a small portion of the inner eye left over.
While the earlier aircraft data suggested the system could have
weakened below 105 kt, the recent re-organization seen on radar and
satellite imagery support leaving the initial wind speed at 105 kt.
A pair of aircraft from the Air Force and NOAA should be in the
hurricane later this morning for another assessment of the
intensity and structure. It should be noted that while Beryl's
maximum winds have slightly decreased overnight, the area of
stronger winds has grown, so the hazards of the hurricane are likely
to affect a larger area.

The hurricane continues to move at 280/17 kt, but there are signs
that a west-northwestward turn is beginning. A faster
west-northwestward motion should occur through mid-week due to Beryl
encountering stronger low-level flow. The hurricane is forecast to
turn more westward beyond that point due to a strengthening
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone. The most notable
change in the long-range guidance is that the bulk of the models is
showing a stronger ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, which keeps Beryl
considerably farther south in those solutions. This is a pretty big
change from earlier so I don't want to bite off on that evolution
just yet, and the new NHC forecast will just take a step toward the
model consensus for continuity purposes.

Beryl has a chance today to re-strengthen now that the eyewall cycle
is close to completion and the vertical wind shear remains low.
Little change was made to the previous forecast in the short term.
However, a marked increase in westerly shear is coming in a couple
of days as the low-level flow increases and the upper-level flow
weakens. This pattern is likely to cause the hurricane to weaken
over the central Caribbean, although the guidance is in poor
agreement on how much, with the latest cycle showing a weaker Beryl
in the western Caribbean. There is quite a disparity in the
upper-level pattern shown by the ECMWF and GFS in the long range as
Beryl enters the vicinity, so the new forecast is only slightly
adjusts downward for 48 hours and beyond, remaining above the model
consensus. It is too soon to discuss what could happen with Beryl
if it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands this morning. This
is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas should
listen to local government and emergency management officials for
any preparedness and/or evacuation orders.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-
threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl
passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk
of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada
beginning later this morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect
for much of the Windward Islands.

3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the
Windward Islands today.

4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Watch is
in effect for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should monitor its progress and additional Watches and Warnings will
likely be required this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 11.7N 59.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 12.6N 62.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 13.9N 66.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 15.1N 70.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 16.0N 73.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 16.8N 77.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 17.4N 81.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 18.4N 87.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 19.5N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE BERYL HAS STRENGTHENED
TO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 60.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...125 KM E OF GRENADA
ABOUT 90 MI...165 KM SSE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning for the island.

The government of Dominica has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for the island.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM AST Mon Jul 1 2024

...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL NEARING THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...1000 AM AST POSITION UPDATE...

Beryl is nearing the southern Windward Islands and expected to make
landfall within the next hour or two. This is an extremely dangerous
and life-threatening situation. Take action now to protect your
life! Residents in the Grenadine Islands and Carriacou Island should
not leave their shelter as winds will rapidly increase within the
eyewall of Beryl. Remain in place through the passage of these
life-threatening conditions and do not venture out in the eye of the
storm.

A weather station located in Barbados at Grantley Adams
International Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph
(83 km/h) and a gust of 69 mph (111 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM AST...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 61.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM E OF GRENADA
ABOUT 25 MI...40 SE ESE OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF BERYL MOVING OVER CARRIACOU
ISLAND...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 61.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF GRENADA
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
island.





Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

Satellite and radar data this morning suggest Beryl has completed an
eyewall replacement cycle. Radar images from Barbados show a solid
ring of deep convection surrounding the warming, well-defined eye of
the hurricane. Data collected by the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunters this morning confirm that Beryl has strengthened. Dropsondes
indicate the central pressure has fallen to around 956 mb, and the
earlier flight-level winds and SFMR data supported an intensity of
around 115 kt a couple of hours ago. The hurricane's satellite
structure has continued to improve this morning, and recent
objective satellite estimates justify raising the initial intensity
to 120 kt. The core of the powerful hurricane is nearing Carriacou
Island, Grenada, and the Grenadine Islands, where conditions are
rapidly deteriorating and residents should take action to protect
their lives.

Aircraft and radar fixes indicate Beryl has jogged northwestward
over the past several hours, and the initial estimated motion is
west-northwest or 285/17 kt. The hurricane is currently moving
across the southern Windward Islands. A mid-level steering ridge to
the north of Beryl should steer the hurricane quickly
west-northwestward to westward across the Caribbean Sea during the
next few days as a mid-level ridge strengthens to the north of the
cyclone. This portion of the track forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory, and the NHC forecast remains close to the
multi-model consensus aids. At days 3-5, there is some increased
spread in the track guidance, likely regarding the strength of the
steering ridge as Beryl approaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and the Yucatan Peninsula. This portion of the forecast was nudged
slightly north of the previous one, but still lies south of the
consensus aids.

Since the eyewall replacement cycle has completed, the updated NHC
forecast allows for some additional near-term strengthening based on
recent aircraft data and the improved satellite and radar structure
of the hurricane. As previously noted, an increase in westerly shear
is expected by midweek, which is expected to induce some weakening
while Beryl moves across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea.
This is reflected in the latest NHC prediction that follows the
multi-model consensus trends. Regardless, Beryl is forecast to
remain a powerful hurricane through late this week, and interests in
the northwestern Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula should continue
to monitor the latest forecast updates.

Based on the latest NHC forecast, the government of Jamaica has
issued a Hurricane Watch for the island.

Key Messages:

1. The eyewall of Beryl is moving through the southern Windward
Islands. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening
situation. Take action now to protect your life! Residents in
Grenada, the Grenadine Islands, and Carriacou Island should not
leave their shelter as destructive winds and life-threatening storm
surge are expected during the next few hours. Shelter in place
through the passage of these life-threatening conditions and do not
venture out in the eye of the storm.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding are expected across
the Windward Islands through this afternoon.

3. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Watch has been
issued for Jamaica. Interests in the Cayman Islands, Belize, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should monitor its progress. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required during the next day or two.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 12.4N 61.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 13.3N 64.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 67.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 15.6N 71.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 16.4N 75.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 17.2N 79.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 17.8N 82.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 19.0N 88.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
120H 06/1200Z 20.5N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Reinhart