ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stellar]

So....just north of Grenada, through the Grenadines?

[Xyls]

When was the last June major? Not Audrey...?

Agnes in 1972, I think?

Agnes was a Category 1.

It's Alma 1966.

[Teban54]

NOAA pass from the east: 110 kt FL, 115 kt SFMR (not the same reading). Extrap pressure 963.3 mb, but it may be an underestimate.

[LadyBug72]

When was the last June major? Not Audrey...?

Agnes in 1972, I think?

Agnes was a Category 1.

It's Alma 1966.

I’m sorry, thank you for the clarification!

[USTropics]

When was the last June major? Not Audrey...?

Agnes in 1972, I think?

Agnes was a Category 1.

It's Alma 1966.

In the HURDAT database, there are only 2 major hurricanes on record in June (now 3 with Beryl):

Audrey 1957


Alma 1966

[Woofde]

Holy... I had a feeling I would be waking up to a clear eye after seeing the warm spot on IR, but it is unreal seeing it actually play out. It still has a fair bit of time with near ideal conditions, talk about a record breaker. No guarantee this dies in the Carribean without land interaction now.

[Stormybajan]

Absolutely beautiful structure and cant wait until the eye fully clears really hope everyone in the Grenadines, Tobago,Grenada and St.Vincent are getting prepared. Its not been gaining much latitude at all to my surprise at this strength and I do believe we will have a CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE east of the windward islands in JUNE at the next 11 AM update. Thats an absolutely insane sentence to write..

[wx98]

AF plane down to 963 extrapolated

[Extratropical94]

Center dropsonde 966 mb / 17 knots.

Together with the eyewall drop, I'd put this at 964/110, pushing for cat 4

[Teban54]

NOAA W quad: 103 kt FL, 96 kt SFMR
AF SE quad: 92 kt FL, 112 kt SFMR, extrap 963.3 mb

Edit: AF NW quad: 111kt FL, 95 kt SFMR

[kevin]

NOAA pass from the east: 110 kt FL, 115 kt SFMR (not the same reading). Extrap pressure 963.3 mb, but it may be an underestimate.

The AF plane had 964.2 mb about one hour ago so in this case the NOAA plane sounds like it could be pretty well calibrated.

[tolakram]

latest


source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Teban54]

NOAA pass from the east: 110 kt FL, 115 kt SFMR (not the same reading). Extrap pressure 963.3 mb, but it may be an underestimate.

The AF plane had 964.2 mb about one hour ago so in this case the NOAA plane sounds like it could be pretty well calibrated.

Yes, and the other 963.3 reading from AF that I just posted corroborates this as well. Was it a problem with a particular NOAA plane in the earlier years, or have they been re-calibrated recently?

[zal0phus]

I'm getting terrified for the rest of the season looking at this thing. Good God. What a beautiful but horrifying omen of what is to come.

[Xyls]

Well I think we will be seeing goodbye to Beryl from the name list this year seeing how things are developing for the Lesser Antilles. Sad to see as it is one of my favorite names on all the lists. Favorite on this otherwise boring name list too.

[RT23]

Am i seeing a wobble or was that a shift to wnw , nw in that last frames of the longwave IR

[TheBurn]

[kevin]

Raw T# just jumped to 6.0 = 948mb/115 kt. Wouldn't be surprised if the measurements approach these values as well in the next few hours.

[aspen]

I’d go with 110kt/963mb based on the most recent passes. We will likely have our first-ever June Category 4 hurricane this afternoon.

[tolakram]

Am i seeing a wobble or was that a shift to wnw , nw in that last frames of the longwave IR

If it doesn't start moving NW it will run into SA. Hard to tell if it's a wobble or a change, will have to look back in a couple of hours.