ATL: CHRIS - Remanants - Discussion

[ChrisH-UK]

94L is passing over the Yucatan and is having a lot of convection.

Source GEOS-16 Red Band 2 hoor loop - https://col.st/PeTTD

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1052/Q3r1HH.gif [/url]

I have a friend who’s down in the Yucatan for a wedding, and 94L has completely ruined it unfortunately.

Congrats to his marriage, commiserations on the weather.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1807140488585400530

[weeniepatrol]

Though all eyes are (rightfully) on Hurricane Beryl, I think this one is a go. Vorticity has been rapidly increasing over the Yucatan:

and visible satellite shows (by my estimate) a very sharp surface trof. The surface wind motions look fantastic for a disturbance.

My gif doesn't want to pause properly, so check the direct link below:

https://i.imgur.com/ngtrUx5.mp4

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think the chances for this one to develop are higher than currently advertised, but real estate over water is really limited. Basically has tomorrow to develop.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of
Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear generally
conducive for further development. A tropical depression could form
before the system moves inland again early next week over Mexico.
Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
associated with the area of low pressure will continue affect
portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[HurricaneBelle]

Circulation emerging just off the NW Yucatan. Wonder if this might steal the name Chris from the system behind Beryl.

[ChrisH-UK]

94L is now in the Bay of Campeche with a lot of convection going on but doesn't look like it is coalescing at this time.

Source GOES-16 Clean IR - https://col.st/8S9AM

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
An area of low pressure located over the southern portion
of the Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a short-lived tropical depression could
form before the system moves inland over Mexico on Monday morning.
Interests along the Gulf Coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
associated with the area of low pressure will continue to affect
portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. An
Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[MississippiWx]

This looks like a tropical depression or even a storm now.

[Sciencerocks]

URNT15 KNHC 301629
AF308 01EEA INVEST HDOB 16 20240630
161900 2135N 09347W 3923 07786 0465 -150 -166 115024 024 038 004 00
161930 2133N 09348W 3922 07788 0464 -150 -167 112025 027 046 010 00
162000 2130N 09349W 3919 07800 0466 -148 //// 108027 028 048 011 01
162030 2128N 09349W 3923 07786 0462 -144 -145 109027 030 044 017 00
162100 2126N 09350W 3925 07781 0466 -141 //// 095031 034 050 008 01
162130 2123N 09351W 3927 07777 0464 -141 //// 108027 029 053 017 01
162200 2121N 09351W 3924 07783 0463 -142 -148 107026 030 053 018 01
162230 2118N 09352W 3918 07802 0464 -140 //// 093025 029 047 021 01
162300 2116N 09353W 3919 07787 0458 -144 -157 091028 030 042 011 00
162330 2113N 09353W 3922 07782 0459 -145 -156 090031 032 042 004 00
162400 2111N 09354W 3923 07779 0459 -145 -151 096031 032 038 006 00
162430 2108N 09355W 3922 07781 0458 -141 //// 108033 035 038 004 01
162500 2106N 09355W 3923 07779 0461 -136 //// 108038 041 040 005 01
162530 2104N 09356W 4007 07635 0464 -128 //// 115034 040 039 005 01
162600 2101N 09357W 4148 07374 0446 -114 //// 108028 033 038 005 01
162630 2059N 09357W 4297 07101 0427 -103 //// 109031 033 036 007 01
162700 2057N 09358W 4440 06850 0409 -090 //// 114029 031 034 007 01
162730 2055N 09358W 4587 06594 0390 -076 //// 113026 030 032 003 01
162800 2053N 09359W 4733 06347 0373 -068 //// 113023 024 029 000 01
162830 2051N 09359W 4864 06131 0355 -058 //// 111023 024 029 000 01
$$

If a LLC is confirmed this will be a moderate tropical storm. Won't take much.

[Xyls]

Possible name stealer incoming?

[wxman57]

Recon found a reliable 40kt wind on the north side. All they need to find is a closed circulation and we have Chris. Should be inland in about 12 hours, though.

[Sciencerocks]

[Buck]

C’mon let’s go June!

[Tireman4]

Recon found a reliable 40kt wind on the north side. All they need to find is a closed circulation and we have Chris. Should be inland in about 12 hours, though.

Chris. Hum...I wonder if it will be a major ( huge sarcasm inserted) ? Lol

[MarioProtVI]

Recon found a reliable 40kt wind on the north side. All they need to find is a closed circulation and we have Chris. Should be inland in about 12 hours, though.

Worth noting ASCAT picked up a closed albeit sort of broad circulation.

[Sciencerocks]

AF308 01EEA INVEST HDOB 21 20240630
170900 1854N 09432W 9767 00297 0104 +230 //// 172026 026 033 002 01
170930 1853N 09432W 9769 00296 0104 +230 +230 173025 026 033 002 00
171000 1852N 09433W 9768 00296 0104 +230 //// 174024 025 032 001 01
171030 1850N 09433W 9770 00296 0105 +230 //// 174023 023 031 001 01
171100 1849N 09434W 9768 00297 0105 +230 //// 174023 023 032 001 01
171130 1848N 09434W 9768 00297 0105 +227 //// 175022 023 031 000 01
171200 1846N 09435W 9773 00293 0106 +227 //// 176021 022 030 000 01
171230 1846N 09436W 9763 00301 0105 +227 //// 176019 021 025 001 01
171300 1847N 09438W 9770 00295 0106 +230 //// 175018 020 027 000 01
171330 1848N 09439W 9773 00292 0105 +231 //// 175016 017 024 001 01
171400 1849N 09441W 9768 00297 0105 +230 //// 179015 016 024 001 01
171430 1849N 09442W 9769 00295 0103 +230 //// 183015 017 024 001 01
171500 1850N 09444W 9769 00295 0103 +230 //// 187016 016 025 001 01
171530 1850N 09445W 9768 00295 0103 +223 //// 195014 016 027 006 01
171600 1851N 09447W 9772 00291 //// +202 //// 228011 015 041 022 01
171630 1851N 09448W 9755 00303 //// +200 //// 235015 016 038 020 01
171700 1851N 09450W 9733 00323 //// +204 //// 243016 017 031 013 01
171730 1852N 09451W 9733 00323 0099 +208 //// 243017 017 029 010 01
171800 1852N 09453W 9732 00323 0097 +229 +223 253018 019 030 003 00
171830 1852N 09454W 9736 00318 0096 +230 //// 258021 021 030 001 01
$$

West wind!

[Charleswachal]

Certainly feels like Tropical Storm Chris will be here today. West winds found by hurricane hunters

[MarioProtVI]

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
Satellite derived winds and preliminary aircraft reconnaissance
data indicate that the area of low pressure located over the
southern portion of the Bay of Campeche has become better organized
during the past few hours and a tropical depression could be
forming. The system is moving toward west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph and is expected to approach the eastern coast of Mexico tonight
and move inland on Monday morning. Consequently, a Tropical Storm
Watch may be required later today for a portion of the eastern coast
of Mexico. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall will result in areas of flooding across eastern Mexico
today and into Monday, with mudslides possible in areas of higher
terrain. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is currently
investigating the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.