ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StPeteMike]

I would not be surprised to have a Cat 5 by tomorrow morning. Nothing is in the way to prevent this small but mighty girl from exploding in strength until getting closer to south of Hispaniola.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

At this point do you think warnings can be lifted in Barbados. It seems to be even further south and no great impact to us

[aspen]

I would not be surprised to have a Cat 5 by tomorrow morning. Nothing is in the way to prevent this small but mighty girl from exploding in strength until getting closer to south of Hispaniola.

It could very easily undergo an EWRC anytime within the next 12-18 hours.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Completely unprecedented territory here for both June and July.

[RT23]

At this point do you think warnings can be lifted in Barbados. It seems to be even further south and no great impact to us

Absolutely not. We will have sustained winds of 70 mph with gust. A y shift in the track can bring this closer.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1807441341666017667

[Sailingtime]

At this point do you think warnings can be lifted in Barbados. It seems to be even further south and no great impact to us

Barbados will feel affects of Beryl even if it moves further South than was forecast. A wobble Northward can make a lot of difference. This is why the watches and warnings remain in effect until the storm passes your longitude.

[Beef Stew]

Question for someone who knows climo very well (I'm sure Larry could chime in here)- prior to Beryl breaking the record today, what was the earliest date of a category 4 hurricane east of the Windward Islands? I was thinking Allen in early August, but I'm not sure.

And to further put Beryl in perspective- what's the date of the (former) earliest category 4 in the MDR to form east of 55W?

[Xyls]

Question for someone who knows climo very well (I'm sure Larry could chime in here)- prior to Beryl breaking the record today, what was the earliest date of a category 4 hurricane east of the Windward Islands? I was thinking Allen in early August, but I'm not sure.

And to further put Beryl in perspective- what's the date of the (former) earliest category 4 in the MDR to form east of 55W?

Re: Allen pretty sure it hit the Windwards as a Cat 3 so it wasn't the earliest to hit the Windwards as Cat 4 because it didn't manage to achieve that to begin with.

Edit: So if we are including the definition of the Windward Islands per Wikipedia which is Dominica through Grenada. There actually is only 1 hurricane that I can find that has ever actually hit these islands as a Category 4 or higher (if we are excluding the 1780 Great Atlantic Hurricane which isn't in the official records as they began in 1851 but probably was in that range when it hit that area but that was in October so still not a contender) and that is Maria in 2017. So I guess that's your answer.

As far as east Category 4 goes I think it is the 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane which got Cat 4 east of the Windwards on August 7? But didn't directly impact those and instead hit the Leewards.

Edit 2: Forgot about David in 1979 which would've made landfall on Dominica as a Cat 4 on August 29, 1979. So that is the correct answer for earliest strike on the Windwards not Maria.

[TheWisestofAll]

Some dry air in its path

[url]https://i.ibb.co/gPNR4ZX/Screen-Hunter-08-Jun-30-16-17.gif [/url]

that band running before the core should protect it from the dry air.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/t2JcZH1/Satellite-No-Radar-20240630-T161500-0100.jpg [/url]

afaik it's rare for dry air to penetrate a core once it's become established as such.

[3090]

Some dry air in its path

[url]https://i.ibb.co/gPNR4ZX/Screen-Hunter-08-Jun-30-16-17.gif [/url]

that band running before the core should protect it from the dry air.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/t2JcZH1/Satellite-No-Radar-20240630-T161500-0100.jpg [/url]

Beryl has coughed out any and all dry air that she has recently ingested on her way to CAT 4 status. To reach CAT 4 and is such a remarkable amount of short time everything needs to go perfect. And it has. I don’t see that small area of dry air being an issue.

[Sciencerocks]

You know what storm this reminds me of? Hurricane Ivan 2004.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

At this point do you think warnings can be lifted in Barbados. It seems to be even further south and no great impact to us

Barbados will feel affects of Beryl even if it moves further South than was forecast. A wobble Northward can make a lot of difference. This is why the watches and warnings remain in effect until the storm passes your longitude.

I was thinking we would be spared

[JaxGator]

latest
https://i.imgur.com/updGd5Y.png

Looks like the stadium effect in the eye.
Ouch.

[GCANE]

Core is drying out.
Look for an outer eyewall later this afternoon or early evening.
IMHO Beryl is near peak intensity.
Very likely no Cat 5.
She will be a lot bigger after the upcoming EWRC gets finished maybe sometime tomorrow.

[TheAustinMan]

Question for someone who knows climo very well (I'm sure Larry could chime in here)- prior to Beryl breaking the record today, what was the earliest date of a category 4 hurricane east of the Windward Islands? I was thinking Allen in early August, but I'm not sure.

And to further put Beryl in perspective- what's the date of the (former) earliest category 4 in the MDR to form east of 55W?

I believe that record was held by the 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane, which is listed as reaching Cat 4 just east of Guadeloupe on... August 7.

[Javlin]

You know what storm this reminds me of? Hurricane Ivan 2004.

Ivan was a low tracker.

https://i.postimg.cc/KY7yWmT6/ivan.jpg

[zzzh]

The track looks more like Allen imo.

[TheBurn]

[Keldeo1997]

That Feeder band is massive and the Eyewall is very strong