ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Latest update from NHC (I can't figure out how to embed it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCmwGtxkPpU

[Beef Stew]

About to get our next center pass from the AF plane.

[3090]

latest
https://i.imgur.com/updGd5Y.png

Looks like the stadium effect in the eye.
Ouch.

That is the characteristic of a CAT5 right there. High end CAT4, no doubt.

[Jr0d]

Was just looking at the Google Street View of Codrington, Barbuda (dating from February of this year) and nearly seven years after Irma it still looks pretty rough. Although most structures are still standing, there are many with visible roof damage, piles of debris and the trees have that "shredded with a giant weed whacker" look to them like we see here in the Midwest in strong (EF3+) tornado paths. Sad to think Beryl could soon do the same to one of the southern Windwards.

I remember seeing Homestead after Andrew, there was a significant stretch that was essentially flattened. Pretty much every house was leveled. Something you see with EF3++ tornadoes. It was a miracle that there were not more fatalities in those neighborhoods as they were not evacuated. The few trees left standing were stripped and de-barked. Even a year later it seemed like little progress was made rebuilding, in the islands the rebuilding process is much slower obviously. A friend of mine who was in St. Croix for Hugo said they had no power for over 6 months.

While fascinating to see these intense hurricanes in the open waters it is an absolute nightmare when they make landfall.

Let's hope that Beryl's strongest winds remain over the water and those in her path heade the warning a seek safe shelter.

[Charleswachal]

Recon down to 958 and still showing very strong eyewall winds. Still strngthening

[UTSARoadrunner4]

2 questions:

1. Where is the shear supposed to come into play?
2. Isn’t there a trough on the way that’ll weaken that ridge to the north?

[Xyls]

2 questions:

1. Where is the shear supposed to come into play?
2. Isn’t there a trough on the way that’ll weaken that ridge to the north?

That was the thought yesterday but models are trending away from these solutions.

[wxman57]

The track looks more like Allen imo.

Allen was the first Atlantic storm I ever forecast. I worked 16 days straight. Allen was a monster in size.

[tolakram]

2 questions:

1. Where is the shear supposed to come into play?
2. Isn’t there a trough on the way that’ll weaken that ridge to the north?

Shear becomes a factor at or near Jamaica. Exact path at 5 days is still a little fuzzy IMO, but there's no reason to doubt the NHC track at this time.

[StormPyrate]

models seem off
Latest GFS kills Beryl and 96 off in an area that Normally storms strengthen.
What is causing that, sheer increase?

[3090]

2 questions:

1. Where is the shear supposed to come into play?
2. Isn’t there a trough on the way that’ll weaken that ridge to the north?

Shear becomes a factor at or near Jamaica. Exact path at 5 days is still a little fuzzy IMO, but there's no reason to doubt the NHC track at this time.
https://i.imgur.com/VZFsBDw.png

Not sure the shear of the TUTT will still be a factor at that point, as I have been seeing/reading of late. The forecast track by the NHC for 5 day forecast are spot on!

[tolakram]

models seem off
Latest GFS kills Beryl and 96 off in an area that Normally storms strengthen.
What is causing that, sheer increase?

Keep this in the models thread please. Also, you said models then GFS.

[tolakram]

latest from SLIDER


source: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=976.9886360168457&y=1057.7698669433594&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=20240630165125&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Texoz]

The track looks more like Allen imo.

Allen was the first Atlantic storm I ever forecast. I worked 16 days straight. Allen was a monster in size.

I was a young teen in Houston tracking that storm, I think from first NHC advisory. Was I reading your posts? Or were you working with another agency/company?

[bob rulz]

Definitely was afraid that this is what I would wake up to. I think it's safe to say that we can throw climatology out the window this year.

[abajan]

At this point do you think warnings can be lifted in Barbados. It seems to be even further south and no great impact to us

I'm in Barbados too and it's a beautiful thought that warnings can be lifted for us. But, unfortunately, it doesn't seem realistic.

[Tireman4]

The track looks more like Allen imo.

Allen was the first Atlantic storm I ever forecast. I worked 16 days straight. Allen was a monster in size.

I was 15. We lived in Santa Fe. We had a serious squall hit as we were leaving to evacuate. It took us six hours to Diboll, Texas. My father swore he would never evacuate again. He would rescind that during Rita. I am not sure he will ever evacuate again. Yeah, I remember Allen

[arizona_sooner]

This is not looking good. My wife, daughter, grandson and I were in Tobago just last week. Her cousin lives in Charlotteville, on the northwest side of the island. That part of the world is not prepared for a hurricane, much less a Cat 4. I am getting seriously worried now.

[Michele B]

Question for someone who knows climo very well (I'm sure Larry could chime in here)- prior to Beryl breaking the record today, what was the earliest date of a category 4 hurricane east of the Windward Islands? I was thinking Allen in early August, but I'm not sure.

And to further put Beryl in perspective- what's the date of the (former) earliest category 4 in the MDR to form east of 55W?

Re: Allen pretty sure it hit the Windwards as a Cat 3 so it wasn't the earliest to hit the Windwards as Cat 4 because it didn't manage to achieve that to begin with.

Edit: So if we are including the definition of the Windward Islands per Wikipedia which is Dominica through Grenada. There actually is only 1 hurricane that I can find that has ever actually hit these islands as a Category 4 or higher (if we are excluding the 1780 Great Atlantic Hurricane which isn't in the official records as they began in 1851 but probably was in that range when it hit that area but that was in October so still not a contender) and that is Maria in 2017. So I guess that's your answer.

As far as east Category 4 goes I think it is the 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane which got Cat 4 east of the Windwards on August 7? But didn't directly impact those and instead hit the Leewards.

Edit 2: Forgot about David in 1979 which would've made landfall on Dominica as a Cat 4 on August 29, 1979. So that is the correct answer for earliest strike on the Leewards not Maria.

There are also many records we could look at:

Earliest major in Atlantic
Earliest major forming furthest east

[wxman57]

12Z models initialized Beryl poorly:
CMC - 1001mb
ICON - 1005mb
GFS - 981mb

Beware. I don't think Beryl is coming to the upper Texas coast