ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Absolutely insane storm, I wonder if this could be close to Cat 5 near the islands. I don't see anything to hinder it between now and whenever shear picks up closer to Jamaica

[TheDreamTraveler]

The fact this storm is beating out the previous record seasons of 2005 and 1933 is all you need to know about what kind of season we're going to have. Even beating both Dennis and Emily which were both anomalies in 2005 that early in the season. Sure 2020 and 2021 were hyperactive years but they did not produce anywhere near the amount of ACE that 1933/2005 did. To see something this strong form so early is truly unprecedented.

[Charleswachal]

Absolutely insane storm, I wonder if this could be close to Cat 5 near the islands. I don't see anything to hinder it between now and whenever shear picks up closer to Jamaica

Only thing will be if it goes through EWRC

[DocJon]

Hey all - What's the word on a South Texas landfall, like South Padre Island, Brownsville area?

[bohai]

From the Austin-San Antonio NWS long term outlook:

Beyond that, our attention would turn to the tropics. Global
guidance, particularly 3 of the last 4 operational runs of the GFS
have Beryl moving into south Texas sometime late next weekend. For
now, we should take any of the guidance that far out with a grain of
salt, especially since a lot of uncertainties exist as to where
Beryl will end up once it moves west of the Lessar Antilles and
Windward Islands. As it stands, the weakness in the ridge to our
east and troughing to our north would act to pull any system
entering the Gulf of Mexico into Texas or Louisiana if those pattern
trends continue. We`ll keep monitoring it, but the main focus will
remain on the heat and humidity heading into the 4th of July holiday.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

At this point do you think warnings can be lifted in Barbados. It seems to be even further south and no great impact to us

I'm in Barbados too and it's a beautiful thought that warnings can be lifted for us. But, unfortunately, it doesn't seem realistic.

So you think it’s over zealous, oh dear

[Charleswachal]

Hey all - What's the word on a South Texas landfall, like South Padre Island, Brownsville area?

Still too early to tell. However I would say right now it's a better than 50/50 chance of a landfall Or at least impact in South Texas.

[IsabelaWeather]

At this point do you think warnings can be lifted in Barbados. It seems to be even further south and no great impact to us

I'm in Barbados too and it's a beautiful thought that warnings can be lifted for us. But, unfortunately, it doesn't seem realistic.

So you think it’s over zealous, oh dear

There would be no reason to pull warnings when a cat 4 is within spitting distance from the island. Like really.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Hey all - What's the word on a South Texas landfall, like South Padre Island, Brownsville area?

Far too soon to say

[DocJon]

From the Austin-San Antonio NWS long term outlook:

Beyond that, our attention would turn to the tropics. Global
guidance, particularly 3 of the last 4 operational runs of the GFS
have Beryl moving into south Texas sometime late next weekend. For
now, we should take any of the guidance that far out with a grain of
salt, especially since a lot of uncertainties exist as to where
Beryl will end up once it moves west of the Lessar Antilles and
Windward Islands. .

If it does hit around the RGV/Brownsville area it'll play absolute Hell with Starbase. Ugh!

[Sciencerocks]

From the Austin-San Antonio NWS long term outlook:

Beyond that, our attention would turn to the tropics. Global
guidance, particularly 3 of the last 4 operational runs of the GFS
have Beryl moving into south Texas sometime late next weekend. For
now, we should take any of the guidance that far out with a grain of
salt, especially since a lot of uncertainties exist as to where
Beryl will end up once it moves west of the Lessar Antilles and
Windward Islands. .

If it does hit around the RGV/Brownsville area it'll play absolute Hell with Starbase. Ugh!

I wish elon would launch a star ship inside the eye if that is the case.

[Stormgodess]

From the Austin-San Antonio NWS long term outlook:

Beyond that, our attention would turn to the tropics. Global
guidance, particularly 3 of the last 4 operational runs of the GFS
have Beryl moving into south Texas sometime late next weekend. For
now, we should take any of the guidance that far out with a grain of
salt, especially since a lot of uncertainties exist as to where
Beryl will end up once it moves west of the Lessar Antilles and
Windward Islands. As it stands, the weakness in the ridge to our
east and troughing to our north would act to pull any system
entering the Gulf of Mexico into Texas or Louisiana if those pattern
trends continue. We`ll keep monitoring it, but the main focus will
remain on the heat and humidity heading into the 4th of July holiday.

Im a complete novice. But have watched the patterns of Hurricanes my whole life being from SE La. We've seen these intense storms before, get so strong they just sort of wind themselves out.

With water temps being what they are in the Gulf right now what are the chance of even more strengthening from Beyrl? Thanks in advance to anyone answering.

[Airboy]

Dang, a Cat 4? I guess I have missed the opening of the season.

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

Absolutely insane storm, I wonder if this could be close to Cat 5 near the islands. I don't see anything to hinder it between now and whenever shear picks up closer to Jamaica

Only thing will be if it goes through EWRC

Even an EWRC now may not be the best outcome impact-wise, because:
1. It increases the wind field for the Windward Islands, broadening the impact (think Maria at PR landfall)
2. An early enough EWRC may give Beryl a more robust structure to survive the expected shear in the Western Caribbean, which in turns further raises its potential in the GoM (not to mention impacts to Yucatan)

[DocJon]

look at that lightning in the core! I think Beryl might be taking a run at Cat.5 even now.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think after Beryl, I'm no longer going to pay attention to strength forecasts of the models.......As all models had a mega fail here on the intensity forecast. This happened a couple of times last year also, but not as bad as Beryl. Remember only 2 days ago when WXMAN was saying that the NHC was way too high with their intensity forecasts? And I think he was basing it upon what the models were saying. I mean obviously the NHC saw something that WXMan and the models didn't. Perhaps the code/programming of the models needs to be re-written to account for different climatology.

[IsabelaWeather]

Beryl is looking pretty ragged on the east side lately...

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think after Beryl, I'm no longer going to pay attention to strength forecasts of the models.......As all models had a mega fail here on the intensity forecast. This happened a couple of times last year also, but not as bad as Beryl. Remember only 2 days ago when WXMAN was saying that the NHC was way too high with their intensity forecasts? And I think he was basing it upon what the models were saying. I mean obviously the NHC saw something that WXMan and the models didn't. Perhaps the code/programming of the models needs to be re-written to account for different climatology.

The Hurricane Models did pretty well on intensity. Problem was nobody wanted to believe them.

[Odeseus]

Beryl is looking pretty ragged on the east side lately...

Wonder if that is a combo of some east sheer and DMIN?