ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Teban54]

I think after Beryl, I'm no longer going to pay attention to strength forecasts of the models.......As all models had a mega fail here on the intensity forecast. This happened a couple of times last year also, but not as bad as Beryl. Remember only 2 days ago when WXMAN was saying that the NHC was way too high with their intensity forecasts? And I think he was basing it upon what the models were saying. I mean obviously the NHC saw something that WXMan and the models didn't. Perhaps the code/programming of the models needs to be re-written to account for different climatology.

The Hurricane Models did pretty well on intensity. Problem was nobody wanted to believe them.

Even the hurricane models started being too conservative especially in the last 24 hours or so. Beryl has been outperforming HWRF, which is scary to think about.

[aspen]

Absolutely insane storm, I wonder if this could be close to Cat 5 near the islands. I don't see anything to hinder it between now and whenever shear picks up closer to Jamaica

Only thing will be if it goes through EWRC

Even an EWRC now may not be the best outcome impact-wise, because:
1. It increases the wind field for the Windward Islands, broadening the impact (think Maria at PR landfall)
2. An early enough EWRC may give Beryl a more robust structure to survive the expected shear in the Western Caribbean, which in turns further raises its potential in the GoM (not to mention impacts to Yucatan)

If the hurricane models are to be believed, we could see another peak as Beryl approaches the Yuacatan Thursday into Friday. Might get nasty if there’s enough of Beryl left by midweek.

[Stormybajan]

At this point do you think warnings can be lifted in Barbados. It seems to be even further south and no great impact to us

Clearly the core isnt coming here or the heaviest rains like I was worried about yesterday but I would definitely keep the tropical storm warning atleast. Recon shows that the windfield has expanded throughout the day when it comes to tropical storm force winds so definitely have to be on the lookout for that late in the night into early Monday Morning! Really wondering if any eyewall replacement happening soon would be a good or bad thing since obviously EWRC can complete and then the storm gets larger but it also weakens the core to have to build it self back up. Also wondering when it comes to storm surge how bad it will be on the south coast, windwards rarely has major hurricane south of 15N and especially south of 13N..

[CrazyC83]

With how strong it became, it seems to be basically moving due west now. At this rate, could it go into Trinidad or into South America?

[aspen]

With how strong it became, it seems to be basically moving due west now. At this rate, could it go into Trinidad or into South America?

Is it possible it stays ever further south than the NHC track and is less impacted by the TUTT?

[ScottNAtlanta]

With how strong it became, it seems to be basically moving due west now. At this rate, could it go into Trinidad or into South America?

Recon measured the largest northward component with it's last fix of all of them and they all had a slight northward component.

[Nimbus]

At this point do you think warnings can be lifted in Barbados. It seems to be even further south and no great impact to us

Clearly the core isnt coming here or the heaviest rains like I was worried about yesterday but I would definitely keep the tropical storm warning atleast. Recon shows that the windfield has expanded throughout the day when it comes to tropical storm force winds so definitely have to be on the lookout for that late in the night into early Monday Morning! Really wondering if any eyewall replacement happening soon would be a good or bad thing since obviously EWRC can complete and then the storm gets larger but it also weakens the core to have to build it self back up. Also wondering when it comes to storm surge how bad it will be on the south coast, windwards rarely has major hurricane south of 15N and especially south of 13N..

Argyle and Carriacou look like they will be getting the worst northern eyewall but hurricane force winds especially gusts can spread out fast to the north of major hurricanes so Barbados needs to stay under warnings.

[IsabelaWeather]

With how strong it became, it seems to be basically moving due west now. At this rate, could it go into Trinidad or into South America?

Looks to be moving WNW to NW to me.

[ElectricStorm]

On a side note I do find it interesting that a Cat 4 has a pressure of 960 I think that's the highest I've ever seen for a storm like this. Although it was still dropping on the last recon pass so it might be lower than that now

[ljmac75]

Yesterday I was thinking about how this could be a major hurricane on June 30th in the local time, but on July 1st in UTC time. I was imagining the kind of arguments people would have over classifying it as a June major hurricane. And then I woke up and no longer needed to worry about that.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Can someone tell me where this TUTT (that is later to cause weakening) is coming from. All I see is the ULL that has been moving west along with Beryl and the shear zone is retreating north

[cycloneye]

Very impressive.

 https://x.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1807475852763881740

[Michele B]

I think after Beryl, I'm no longer going to pay attention to strength forecasts of the models.......As all models had a mega fail here on the intensity forecast. This happened a couple of times last year also, but not as bad as Beryl. Remember only 2 days ago when WXMAN was saying that the NHC was way too high with their intensity forecasts? And I think he was basing it upon what the models were saying. I mean obviously the NHC saw something that WXMan and the models didn't. Perhaps the code/programming of the models needs to be re-written to account for different climatology.

I've been saying these things for years!

Luckily, tho, they DO upgrade the software from time to time and it seems as though they're getting more accurate all the time.

[Emmett_Brown]

In addition to how rare Beryl is for this time of year, it's also rare that it was able to strengthen so rapidly while moving over 20 mph. Usually fast forward speed prevents lows from closing off easily.

[Stormgodess]

Question... What, if any impact, could 94L in the SW Gulf have on Beyrl? As far as strength or steering? Or are they simply too far away from each other?

[Mouton]

Well they say when they deepen they generally go poleward. Here we are dealing with a compact circulation, so not so sure that is a viable concept. Looks to me on sat to be closer to 10.6 Lat. Moving very quickly westward and just outrunning some dry air to its east, perhaps being dried out a bit by 96? Also getting extremely close on its southern paraffiny with SA. After the WI, some dry air. Suspect it has topped out here( 135 MPH) but the pin hole storms are a PIA. Looking out past five days is always a crap shoot but I suspect the furthers east it may hit would be the La/Tx 5% border. On the other side, TX MX (20%) area. I lean to something nearer S. Padre in 7 days.

Bastardi last night suggested storm looks very much like Emily. Whatever, it is going to be a terrible year if the current period is a hint. He pointed out the Atlantic basin is lit up and so far the Pacific has had NO cyclones this year, a record low.

[ConvergenceZone]

With how strong it became, it seems to be basically moving due west now. At this rate, could it go into Trinidad or into South America?

I thought stronger equals more northern path? At last that's what I've always learned when it comes to the tropics.

[Javlin]

Can someone tell me where this TUTT (that is later to cause weakening) is coming from. All I see is the ULL that has been moving west along with Beryl and the shear zone is retreating north

https://i.imgur.com/g4pkFJh.gif

Scott I do not see no traditional TUTT either just a tongue in the middle of the Caribbean and yes moving in tandem with Beryl

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[Weatherwatcher2018]

With how strong it became, it seems to be basically moving due west now. At this rate, could it go into Trinidad or into South America?

I thought stronger equals more northern path? At last that's what I've always learned when it comes to the tropics.

Yeah that’s usually what I observe

[IsabelaWeather]

With how strong it became, it seems to be basically moving due west now. At this rate, could it go into Trinidad or into South America?

I thought stronger equals more northern path? At last that's what I've always learned when it comes to the tropics.

That is true, a stronger storm will generally go north, however in this case there is a large area of high pressure to the north. There is some weakness NW of the storm but the timing will be off for it to move north.