ATL: CHRIS - Remanants - Discussion

[Charleswachal]

I wonder why they're not initiating advisories on potential tropical cyclone number 3? If it's already looking, likely that it will form later today and we are already within the 36-hour window of warnings, why are we waiting till later?

[Sciencerocks]

I wonder why they're not initiating advisories on potential tropical cyclone number 3? If it's already looking, likely that it will form later today and we are already within the 36-hour window of warnings, why are we waiting till later?

Same reason they didn't for 92L. Probably more so with Beryl being a serious threat to the leewards.

There's is certainly a tropical cyclone without doubt.

[Charleswachal]

This season sure feels like 2005 where every single blob forms.

[Sciencerocks]

This season sure feels like 2005 where every single blob forms.

2005 had Bret and Gert in the boc. Doubt they'd be upgraded this year and they're very similar to 92L and 94L in organization and strength.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like it's just about there I think we'll see Chris at the next advisory cycle

[HurricaneBrain]

This should be Chris by 5PM. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a special update any moment until then.

[CrazyC83]

I agree, this is probably a TC given the wind data, with a center at 19.8N 95.8W.

[kevin]

40 kt FL, 50 kt SFMR and a closed center, we should have Chris at the next update.

[CrazyC83]

40 kt FL, 50 kt SFMR and a closed center, we should have Chris at the next update.

The SFMR is probably a bit high, but 40 kt for sustained winds seems reasonable. Probably Chris at 4 pm CT.

[Teban54]

Convection still seemed a bit popcorn-y to me, at least back when recon made the first pass, if not now. Perhaps that explains the lack of an upgrade?

[SconnieCane]

Suddenly looking more likely this one steals Chris from 96L.

[wxman57]

I agree, this is probably a TC given the wind data, with a center at 19.8N 95.8W.

That's only the first center recon found. Looks like it found two others. Broad center with multiple vortices.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

03L at 5 it appears...

AL, 94, 2024063018, , BEST, 0, 196N, 944W, 30, 1007, TD

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal942024.dat

[Beef Stew]

03L at 5 it appears...

AL, 94, 2024063018, , BEST, 0, 196N, 944W, 30, 1007, TD

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal942024.dat

A TD designation here surprises me. Classification in this case has seemed to be dependent on whether or not there's enough organization around the center- and if there is (and it certainly appears to me there is), the winds should support a TS designation rather than a TD.

[ChrisH-UK]

94L in the Bay of Campeche. Looks to have good circulation and convection before land fall.

Source - https://col.st/AKzI4

[Hammy]

Honestly surprised they're upgrading this, given 93L wasn't and had a better case for well defined center.

[tropicwatch]

Honestly surprised they're upgrading this, given 93L wasn't and had a better case for well defined center.

HH has sent out a vortex message:

A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 18:14:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19.59N 95.39W
B. Center Fix Location: 195 statute miles (313 km) to the NW (305°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 47kts (54.1mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 1 nautical miles to the W (274°) of center fix at 18:13:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 290° at 25kts (From the WNW at 28.8mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix at 18:05:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 32kts (36.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the E (95°) of center fix at 18:16:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 180° at 25kts (From the S at 28.8mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the ESE/SE (124°) of center fix at 18:31:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 372m (1,220ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 336m (1,102ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 25kts (~ 28.8mph) which was observed 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) from the flight level center at 18:05:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (309°) from the flight level center
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- SFMR and flight level winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

[zzzh]

AL, 03, 2024063018, , BEST, 0, 196N, 944W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 80, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THREE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 007, TRANSITIONED, alA42024 to al032024,

[Astromanía]

Refreshing rain from this here

[blp]

Similarities to 2005 continue. Off by one letter