ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

And for those new members to the storm2k board wondering why this board isn't very busy. Don't worry, there will more than likely be plenty of other storms that are USA threats this year that will have this board busy like crazy. All we need is one storm to have model support to hit the USA. In the mean-time enjoy the quiet board, because in a couple of months it will be so busy you won't be able to keep up with the threads...... Also hats off to the Mods. Nothing but total respect to them, especially during the busy months.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

What’s the latitude now, concerned Barbadian

11N

[DukeMu]

Ruh Roh...we're a ways off, but still.

[tolakram]

latest loop


source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-200-1-10-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

[arizona_sooner]

Well that last satellite loop looks better - probably will miss Tobago. But they will likely get heavy rain and strong winds, worse that what they are used to... Gotta hope it doesn't wobble due west.

[msbee]

What about Grenada? It’s going to be a close call for them. There are over 100,000 people living there

[weeniepatrol]

And for those new members to the storm2k board wondering why this board isn't very busy. Don't worry, there will more than likely be plenty of other storms that are USA threats this year that will have this board busy like crazy. All we need is one storm to have model support to hit the USA. In the mean-time enjoy the quiet board, because in a couple of months it will be so busy you won't be able to keep up with the threads...... Also hats off to the Mods. Nothing but total respect to them, especially during the busy months.

866 posts is respectable for a June system given it still has the entirety of the Caribbean to travel through. Agreed though

[Kazmit]

Does a storm’s minimum pressure have anything to do with its size? I don’t know if this has any truth to it, but I’ve noticed that larger storms tend to have lower pressures, and smaller storms higher pressures.

[tolakram]

Reminder, we have a models thread for every storm and want to keep alarming model posts OUT of here. You are welcome to post and discuss in the models thread, not here. The verification of end-of-run models is not good, at all. Save it for twitter or the models thread please. Thanks.

[3090]

With how strong it became, it seems to be basically moving due west now. At this rate, could it go into Trinidad or into South America?

It's certainly reassuring to know that as a meteorologist you're saying it seems to be basically moving due west, because to my layman's eyes it seems to have been moving WNW for the last couple of hours or so - not just a wobble.

Moving ever so slightly north of west

https://i.imgur.com/2G1LKn4.png

Moving on forecast…NHC is the best there is.

[tulum07]

Hello All: What is the blob over S. FL since last night? It is not the usual PM t-storms. Flood advisory, heavy t-storms. It seems to have some persistent organization. Any feedback?

[3090]

Hello All: What is the blob over S. FL since last night? It is not the usual PM t-storms. Flood advisory, heavy t-storms. It seems to have some persistent organization. Any feedback?

I’d say there is an upper level disturbance (non tropical) sitting over there.

[Teban54]

[jlauderdal]

Hello All: What is the blob over S. FL since last night? It is not the usual PM t-storms. Flood advisory, heavy t-storms. It seems to have some persistent organization. Any feedback?

Caught a small disturbance with 2+ PWATS and it was easy to make rain, more on the way.

[aspen]

The eye has shrunk quite a lot over the last few hours, and the CDO isn’t quite as smooth on visible as before. Dunno if it’s just a temporary structural quirk as it contracts and intensifies, or if it’s indicative of an EWRC on the horizon. The current structure of a small eye and gigantic outer band is quite conducive for one to occur at some point.

[Edwards Limestone]

And for those new members to the storm2k board wondering why this board isn't very busy. Don't worry, there will more than likely be plenty of other storms that are USA threats this year that will have this board busy like crazy. All we need is one storm to have model support to hit the USA. In the mean-time enjoy the quiet board, because in a couple of months it will be so busy you won't be able to keep up with the threads...... Also hats off to the Mods. Nothing but total respect to them, especially during the busy months.

Plenty of model support for a U.S. landfall at this point.

[Hammy]

The eye has shrunk quite a lot over the last few hours, and the CDO isn’t quite as smooth on visible as before. Dunno if it’s just a temporary structural quirk as it contracts and intensifies, or if it’s indicative of an EWRC on the horizon. The current structure of a small eye and gigantic outer band is quite conducive for one to occur at some point.

Looks like there might've been another batch of dry air/easterly shear, especially with the eastern eyewall sort of pulsing at the moment

[IcyTundra]

And for those new members to the storm2k board wondering why this board isn't very busy. Don't worry, there will more than likely be plenty of other storms that are USA threats this year that will have this board busy like crazy. All we need is one storm to have model support to hit the USA. In the mean-time enjoy the quiet board, because in a couple of months it will be so busy you won't be able to keep up with the threads...... Also hats off to the Mods. Nothing but total respect to them, especially during the busy months.

Plenty of model support for a U.S. landfall at this point.

Yes still a chance and too much uncertainity to say that a U.S landfall is off the table.

[Teban54]

The eye has shrunk quite a lot over the last few hours, and the CDO isn’t quite as smooth on visible as before. Dunno if it’s just a temporary structural quirk as it contracts and intensifies, or if it’s indicative of an EWRC on the horizon. The current structure of a small eye and gigantic outer band is quite conducive for one to occur at some point.

FWIW, from about 3 hours ago:

[Category5Kaiju]

I don't seem to see or have heard of any imminent signs of an EWRC, and barring any EWRCs, I see no reason why this thing would falter or stop getting stronger unfortunately.