ATL: BERYL - Models

[Frank P]

the last 4 runs of the GFS basically bumped north a tad each run

[Frank P]

@90 hours weaker at 1000mb, tad right of previous run, not sure if it really matters its so small

[Frank P]

@114 hour 1000mb but same location as previous run but a tad slower..

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS seems to be the weakest of the models, hopefully it’s right in the 72hrs and onward

[HurricaneBelle]

Good post from Franklin (the forecaster, not the storm) regarding ensemble means many days out:

 https://x.com/FranklinJamesL/status/1807512282567487987

[Frank P]

@126 hours...its dead Jim... see if it comes back to life as it enters the BOC

[Woofde]

The GFS seems to be the weakest of the models, hopefully it’s right in the 72hrs and onward

I don't trust any of the global models with intensity modeling on these small storms. This is a case where a weaker storm will experience more weakening than a strong one due to the shear. The globals will struggle to model this and any land interaction with their coarser fields. The Hurricane models may have their own biases, but they should be closer to reality. Uncertainty is higher than usual with this storm.

[Frank P]

this is painful to watch.... down to 1005 at h138

[jaguars_22]

These models are out the window… this storm has much lower pressure than the models are showing… I don’t buy it! I say a low end hurricane as it hits Yucatán

[HurricaneBrain]

FWIW the models continue to initialize Beryl with a pressure 15+ mbars higher than what it is currently…

this is painful to watch.... down to 1005 at h138

[Frank P]

h156 down to 1003 mb.. looks like upper MX/TX coast

[Stratton23]

Given how off the GFS is at the beginning, im really hesitant to believe this will weaken substantially near the yucatan when the initial pressure is way too high, im thinking hurricane models may be closer to reality here

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS into Brownsville as a TS. No idea why the GFS is so poor with the initialization of Beryl.

[Frank P]

DOA...

[jaguars_22]

A few of the hurricane models are showing correctly… but the gfs is off… I think the earlier runs of the gfs that showed a stronger hurricane hitting Texas may be closer to accurate… we all know what Harvey did in the gulf too. Went from an expected tropical storm to a cat 4 in a day???? All bets are off let’s see what happens Monday and Tuesday

[jaguars_22]

I just saw a report of a pressure of 955 in the discussion thread… this thing is a lot stronger than models show

[Stratton23]

Icytundra the euro was too, even the canadian lol

[Stormlover70]

Good news if it's weak.

[ConvergenceZone]

DOA...
[url]https://i.ibb.co/nkkzFyn/gfs-mslp-wind-watl-30.png [/url]

These days I just laugh at the strength forecasts of tropical disturbances from models. Due to their low accuracy record, I don't pay attention to them anymore.

[lsuhurricane]