ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

from yesterday

 https://x.com/forecaster25/status/1807746399313809441

[Teban54]

Took her 1-2 hours to restore that perfectly clear and round eye.

[tolakram]

latest


source: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=763.9914855957031&y=952.7698669433594&z=2&angle=0&im=6&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=20240701134326&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[tolakram]

It is rare to have a storm look this perfect.

[Charleswachal]

Recon finding cat 5 winds a few hundred feet above the surface in the latest dropsound. As high as 152 knt winds about 1000 feet up.

[Xyls]

Beryl still looking beastly this morning and looking like going a bit north of track which could suggest more impacts for Jamaica down the line. I'm still not sure the intensity is going to weaken with this storm as much as the models are saying as they still don't seem to be dealing with the intensity of this storm very well...

[Blinhart]

Beryl still looking beastly this morning and looking like going a bit north of track which could suggest more impacts for Jamaica down the line. I'm still not sure the intensity is going to weaken with this storm as much as the models are saying as they still don't seem to be dealing with the intensity of this storm very well...

I'm thinking the same thing, this storm has broken all climatology records, so why not continue breaking climatology rules.

[sponger]

Looks to be making a run at Cat 5. Insane!

[xironman]

956 for the dropsonde. Still a 4mb drop in 2hrs is nothing to sneeze at.

[TheBurn]

ERC on MIMIC microwave

[tolakram]

[3090]

ERC on MIMIC microwave
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2024_02L/web/gifsBy12hr_04.gif

Noticeable change in general movement seen here as well. Went from essentially a due west to a more pronounced WNW heading. Moving per forecast path as determined by the NHC.

[3090]

https://i.imgur.com/LSSlJQj.png

The ominous wagon wheel eye though! Very rare to see unless it is a high end major such as Beryl!

[tolakram]

[ColdMiser123]

Beryl still looking beastly this morning and looking like going a bit north of track which could suggest more impacts for Jamaica down the line. I'm still not sure the intensity is going to weaken with this storm as much as the models are saying as they still don't seem to be dealing with the intensity of this storm very well...

A big difference as it moves into the Caribbean is the shear vector will shift to being out of the west. Am watching to see if Beryl generates stronger convection upshear again once that happens, like it did over the last few days. If that does happen, then you could see short term motion deviate more NW as opposed to WNW.

[Kazmit]

Wonder if it will even make an official landfall. Carriacou will likely receive the calm of the eye, but the true center point may pass south of the island. This will probably be the worst hurricane they have ever experienced. It is the most populated island of the Grenadines- 10,000 people live there.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I can't believe how beautiful this storm is, especially its eye. I absolutely love looking at the intricacies with the mesovortices inside. You don't see eyes like these very often. The fact we're getting such a picture-esque hurricane on July 1st in this part of the Atlantic is just surreal.

[Ntxw]

With ERC complete eye has grown and storm is symmetrical, beautiful and scary. Prayers for the islands in its path.

[tolakram]

[Cachondo23]

[Tweet][/Tweet]

Wonder if it will even make an official landfall. Carriacou will likely receive the calm of the eye, but the true center point may pass south of the island. This will probably be the worst hurricane they have ever experienced. It is the most populated island of the Grenadines- 10,000 people live there.

Landfall can be in either Carriacou or Petite Martinique. Possible devastation coming in.