ATL: BERYL - Models

[Stratton23]

06z hurricane models are also coming in more north compared to their 00z runs fwiw, some of them get awfully close to hitting jamaica

[jlauderdal]

ICON 6z massive shift north

ICON did good with IAN and held firm while the other models were going further N, It was a different storm, but dont toss it. As always, the best track is the NHC track or go with the TVCN(they do).

Don’t forget UKMET, which did the best with Ian as it was the furthest south and closest. ICON was 2nd best.

Yes, UK was on it too.

[jaguars_22]

Percentages are dropping for a Texas landfall! High pressure is looking stronger to block the north turn… nhc sees this too and so does wxman!!! my Corpus Christi prediction is too far north I believe and thank goodness

[ROCK]

IMO, I think they are locking in now and we shouldn’t see anymore wild swings in further runs. Typical blocking high in the GOM in July. It’s only 102F today CTX..

Might sling so rain up the coast some.

[Stratton23]

Far too early still, nothing set in stone at all, confidence wont be 100% until this reaches the yucatan or passes south of jamaica, some guidance has beryl running right over it, by wednesday we will have a good feeling about what the system will do, until then expect more shifts

[AerospaceEng]

Far too early still, nothing set in stone at all, confidence wont be 100% until this reaches the yucatan or passes south of jamaica, some guidance has beryl running right over it, by wednesday we will have a good feeling about what the system will do, until then expect more shifts

Exactly. Beryl is currently North of the forecast track and running on the northern 1/3 of the ensembles. Expect more North shifts.

[3090]

Far too early still, nothing set in stone at all, confidence wont be 100% until this reaches the yucatan or passes south of jamaica, some guidance has beryl running right over it, by wednesday we will have a good feeling about what the system will do, until then expect more shifts

As far as ANY potential forecast for a U.S. landfall goes, a track directly over Jamaica or north of Jamaica will not be what we want to see. It would be a better feeling (IMO), to see Beryl track a decent ways south of Jamaica on its WNW heading.

[Stratton23]

3090 the 06z GFS and ICON both showed what you were talking about, they both went over Jamaica, thats why they both shifted north by alot if you compare them to their 00z runs respectively

[jaguars_22]

My big question is why haven’t the gfs and icon initialized this storm with the pressure it has? A stronger storm could be why the models are all over the place… weakening the storm too much before the Yucatán in my opinion. The models should at least help us out and pick up on the data from recon

[ROCK]

Well I guess the 06Z Navgem sees no blocking high at all...like anywhere

[kassi]

Well I guess the 06Z Navgem sees no blocking high at all...like anywhere

Care to elaborate?

[Blinhart]

I don't like all these models turning North at the end of their runs. It all depends on when these turns happen on where she will make landfall if it will be Mexico or the GoM coast.

[3090]

Well I guess the 06Z Navgem sees no blocking high at all...like anywhere

NAVGEM use to be the NOGAPS until about 2013 as I recall, no?

[Steve]

Well I guess the 06Z Navgem sees no blocking high at all...like anywhere

Care to elaborate?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 106&fh=144

Looks unlikely. it goes through the channel and heads toward the S LA Coast. But it's the NAVGEM which was the one that used to be the Navy Nogaps. It's a pretty crappy model overall, but there was a time many decades ago when it was deemed somewhat reliable. I'm assuming, like Clipper, it's somewhat better than blind luck which is probably why they still use it.

[Tireman4]

Well I guess the 06Z Navgem sees no blocking high at all...like anywhere

Care to elaborate?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 106&fh=144

Looks unlikely. it goes through the channel and heads toward the S LA Coast. But it's the NAVGEM which was the one that used to be the Navy Nogaps. It's a pretty crappy model overall, but there was a time many decades ago when it was deemed somewhat reliable. I'm assuming, like Clipper, it's somewhat better than blind luck which is probably why they still use it.

It is the Navy, Steve. They use super stealth technology to tell you where it is not going. I hate to besmirch the great Navy, but hey. LOL

[Javlin]

If correct for the next 12/24 hrs may see a little more tug N?

https://i.postimg.cc/90WD6bJc/wg8dlm6.gif

[tolakram]

If correct for the next 12/24 hrs may see a little more tug N?

https://i.postimg.cc/90WD6bJc/wg8dlm6.gif

I would use this


from here: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm5&zoom=&time=

[tolakram]

If correct for the next 12/24 hrs may see a little more tug N?

https://i.postimg.cc/90WD6bJc/wg8dlm6.gif

I would use this
https://i.imgur.com/jLVN2U2.png

from here: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm5&zoom=&time=

This is static and things are moving, so only really usable short term IMO.

[Javlin]

If correct for the next 12/24 hrs may see a little more tug N?

https://i.postimg.cc/90WD6bJc/wg8dlm6.gif

Don't know what I was seeing your right to low pressure in mine thanks.

I was looking at wind not the pressure so much.

[Javlin]

If correct for the next 12/24 hrs may see a little more tug N?

https://i.postimg.cc/90WD6bJc/wg8dlm6.gif

I would use this
https://i.imgur.com/jLVN2U2.png

from here: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm5&zoom=&time=

This is static and things are moving, so only really usable short term IMO.

True but it still represents a fluid situation which is really dynamic and always changing hence the 12hrs and 24 a stretch.