ATL: BERYL - Models

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#361 Postby 3090 » Mon Jul 01, 2024 9:51 am

Javlin wrote:If correct for the next 12/24 hrs may see a little more tug N?

https://i.postimg.cc/90WD6bJc/wg8dlm6.gif

The low pressure out ahead will have a tendency to bump Beryl (stairstep) a little north of west as Beryl moves towards Jamaica. At least that is what I understand.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#362 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:19 am

Javlin wrote:
Javlin wrote:If correct for the next 12/24 hrs may see a little more tug N?

https://i.postimg.cc/90WD6bJc/wg8dlm6.gif

Don't know what I was seeing your right to low pressure in mine thanks. :wink:

I was looking at wind not the pressure so much. :oops:


I'm not sure I used the correct one. Storm pressure is related to background pressure so how does one choose a wind chart when they are keyed by pressure? :lol: This is why I am NOT a meteorologist. The storm will be steered by the highest level winds based on how "tall" the storm is. That's the way I understand it.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#363 Postby Javlin » Mon Jul 01, 2024 10:32 am

tolakram wrote:
Javlin wrote:
Javlin wrote:If correct for the next 12/24 hrs may see a little more tug N?

https://i.postimg.cc/90WD6bJc/wg8dlm6.gif

Don't know what I was seeing your right to low pressure in mine thanks. :wink:

I was looking at wind not the pressure so much. :oops:


I'm not sure I used the correct one. Storm pressure is related to background pressure so how does one choose a wind chart when they are keyed by pressure? :lol: This is why I am NOT a meteorologist. The storm will be steered by the highest level winds based on how "tall" the storm is. That's the way I understand it.

Well with the latest update on winds and pressure it just went up a notch hence a little of poleward movement should be coming.The models have consistently been using pressures below what is being observed why?Time will tell the truth in the long run. :wink:
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#364 Postby jaguars_22 » Mon Jul 01, 2024 11:35 am

So how much should we trust the models? Since they are all almost 20mb too high…
Wxman57 did you see this storm getting this strong? Texas won’t see a direct hit right? Is that still your forecast?
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#365 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:07 pm

HWRF init was at 957mb

Image

Fighting shear and still deepening

Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#366 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:16 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#367 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:17 pm

FYI if you use the link instead of BBCODE you can use the IMGUR tags to paste it here. Example:

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#368 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:19 pm

HWRF is going more north and strong.

Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#369 Postby Cpav54 » Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:20 pm

Last edited by Cpav54 on Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:29 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#370 Postby Cpav54 » Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:20 pm

How do I post the image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#371 Postby 3090 » Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:21 pm

tolakram wrote:HWRF is going more north and strong.

https://i.imgur.com/DMaz2B7.png


Yeah we do not want to see that trend.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#372 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:29 pm

12Z GFS still buries it into the Belize and into MX. Short term it does gain some lat but then the high builds over the GOM in the med range which send it to MX. Few runs in a row now with that scenario.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#373 Postby Woofde » Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:30 pm

tolakram wrote:HWRF is going more north and strong.

Image
Ironically, the HWRF is the only Hurricane model that doesn't show Beryl hitting Cat 5 in the short term.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#374 Postby aspen » Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:38 pm

12z HWRF actually initialozed Beryl pretty well for the first time in ages. It keeps Beryl pretty steady as a 940a Cat 4 until it slams into Jamaica at full force on Wednesday afternoon.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#375 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:54 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#376 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:55 pm

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#377 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 01, 2024 12:57 pm

Half A... sorry, HAFS-A weaker and south of HWRF

Image

B stronger but also south of HWRF

Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#378 Postby lsuhurricane » Mon Jul 01, 2024 1:06 pm

Yeah, this HWRF run is the most northeasternly based since yesterdays 12z run. Weird how that works.

Nearly all hurricane models have shifted northward after yesterday afternoons southward trend.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#379 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 01, 2024 1:29 pm

Image
Image
Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#380 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Jul 01, 2024 1:38 pm

12Z Euro takes Beryl directly over Jamaica. This northern trend today has not been good for Jamaica.
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