ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Xyls]

Has there ever been a Cat 5 in this area? I think the cut off of the inflow over South America should stop this from hitting Cat 5.

Then again, June Cat 4 in the MDR blasting through the southern Windward Islands with 150 mph…I didn’t think that would happen either…

I think the closest to this area would be David, Ivan, Dean and Maria (which actually hit the Windward Islands at Cat 5). So there have been Cat 5's in the general proximity of Beryl but not right at this spot if that's what you mean lol.

[CrazyC83]

As the Tropical Meteorologists on the Weather Channel were saying, far as the USA is concerned, Thank God for strong High Pressure!
Wish the weather channel didn't have so many damn commercials though lol.

Depends on where/how strong the high pressure ridge is relative to the hurricane’s position. Same for troughs too. They can both prevent disaster (thank goodness) or if the timing is off, then yeah that would be a horrible no good, very bad day for somebody.

Northerly shear in a west-moving storm would likely weaken it significantly, if it holds up when Beryl arrives.

As for now, I would say the intensity is 135 kt, with a pressure of 942 mb, based on extrapolation of the previous data.

[Xyls]

Slightly off topic, but it’s so weird to me to be discussing a storm named Beryl as a super-storm. Historically, she’s always been weak and forgotten

This is how I felt about Katrina in 2005 because I started tracking storms in 1999 and remember it being a big nothing burger. I was down in Florida at the time and there was talk about how the remnants were going over Florida after it dissipated and as I was a big hurricane lover remembered how much of a nothingburger I thought this storm was. LOL.

Eventually the flop names will outperform.

[JaxGator]

In this view you can see the shear zone Beryl will be moving into. Upper level clouds moving north.

https://i.imgur.com/HQ1WCGr.gif

That’s the definition of a classic major hurricane. Stadium effect in the eye and the CDO is taking on a full circle appearance now. Praying for all who were affected by this monster and for the wind shear ahead to do its job before Beryl can do more damage.

[Xyls]

As the Tropical Meteorologists on the Weather Channel were saying, far as the USA is concerned, Thank God for strong High Pressure!
Wish the weather channel didn't have so many damn commercials though lol.

Depends on where/how strong the high pressure ridge is relative to the hurricane’s position. Same for troughs too. They can both prevent disaster (thank goodness) or if the timing is off, then yeah that would be a horrible no good, very bad day for somebody.

Northerly shear in a west-moving storm would likely weaken it significantly, if it holds up when Beryl arrives.

As for now, I would say the intensity is 135 kt, with a pressure of 942 mb, based on extrapolation of the previous data.

And this is the big question. Because looking at satellite it does look like that shear has been abating a bit in it's path.

[JaxGator]

Depends on where/how strong the high pressure ridge is relative to the hurricane’s position. Same for troughs too. They can both prevent disaster (thank goodness) or if the timing is off, then yeah that would be a horrible no good, very bad day for somebody.

Northerly shear in a west-moving storm would likely weaken it significantly, if it holds up when Beryl arrives.

As for now, I would say the intensity is 135 kt, with a pressure of 942 mb, based on extrapolation of the previous data.

And this is the big question. Because looking at satellite it does look like that shear has been abating a bit in it's path.

Didn’t any model runs show the shear either moving in tandem with Beryl or was the shear forecast to relent and changed?

[zzzh]

Now it looks like a legit 130-135kt hurricane. Shear will increase around 00z so need recon to confirm the peak intensity.

[Beef Stew]

I'm curious as to what was prompting all of the 140+ kt sfmr readings earlier- because there sure were a lot. Some didn't seem to be shallow/due to shoaling either, and the NHC was clearly taking them into account to some extent due to the blend between sfmr and FL winds for the upgrade to 130 kts. I wonder if there is any reliable instrumentation on the ground that can shed a light on the accuracy of these readings later on. With Beryl's structure presently, I certainly could believe she's in the realm of a 140+ kt storm.

[zzzh]

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1807849156226212223

[InfernoFlameCat]

Can we just say no one saw this coming? Wow. Cat 5 talks in July is just wild from when a week ago everyone thought this was going to be a moderate Ts to maybe a minimal hc!

[cycloneye]

Impressive look at the eye and eyewall from Miss Piggy.

 https://x.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/1807842894705049785

[FireRat]

Can we just say no one saw this coming? Wow. Cat 5 talks in July is just wild from when a week ago everyone thought this was going to be a moderate Ts to maybe a minimal hc!

This was indeed a surprise! No one could've imagined a near Cat 5 strike on the Windwards this early.

This is one of the most anomalous things that has happened in the Atlantic basin since 1851. Makes me think about those legendary early season hurricanes from the far past, like the June 1780 St Lucia hurricane for example.

[weeniepatrol]

I'm presuming recon misses the peak and finds 135 kt lol

[tolakram]

[REDHurricane]

Guessing it's probably peaking right about now, what an absolute beast -- I'm absolutely certain that it doesn't have anything at all to do with the unprecedented ocean heat content levels currently in place as a result of the not-so-gradual warming of the Earth over the past century creating environmental conditions so extremely favorable for tropical cyclones that we're seeing a MDR system possibly reach Cat 5 strength in the far eastern Caribbean on the first day of July; that would be impossible...

[zzzh]

I'm presuming recon misses the peak and finds 135 kt lol

Oh I don't want to see a Sam repeat

[cycloneye]

Next mission departs at 6:30 PM EDT and is from NOAA. I would have wished it departs earlier.

FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42
A. 01/2330Z,02/0530Z
B. NOAA2 0702A BERYL
C. 01/2230Z
D. 13.3N 64.3W
E. 01/2300Z TO 02/0530Z
G. FIX & TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. WRA ACTIVATION

[bob rulz]

I think there's certainly still a chance that Beryl is at its peak when recon arrives.

What an absolute monster. I would definitely believe that she has reached 140kts at this point. This REALLY doesn't bode well for the rest of the season.

[REDHurricane]

The rippling effect at the end of this loop is crazy... wow