ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Next mission departs at 6:30 PM EDT and is from NOAA. I would have wished it departs earlier.

FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42
A. 01/2330Z,02/0530Z
B. NOAA2 0702A BERYL
C. 01/2230Z
D. 13.3N 64.3W
E. 01/2300Z TO 02/0530Z
G. FIX & TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. WRA ACTIVATION

I wish it was AF not NOAA. NOAA's reading just seem a little goofy to me.

[cycloneye]

Next mission departs at 6:30 PM EDT and is from NOAA. I would have wished it departs earlier.

FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42
A. 01/2330Z,02/0530Z
B. NOAA2 0702A BERYL
C. 01/2230Z
D. 13.3N 64.3W
E. 01/2300Z TO 02/0530Z
G. FIX & TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. WRA ACTIVATION

I wish it was AF not NOAA. NOAA's reading just seem a little goofy to me.

What do you mean?

[Zonacane]

[Beef Stew]

https://media.surlyhorns.com/monthly_2024_07/image.png.9372acb1dda5d3aaae5cf0c407a2310e.png

Yeah... I'd be surprised if Beryl isn't at category 5 intensity right now.

[tropicwatch]

Next mission departs at 6:30 PM EDT and is from NOAA. I would have wished it departs earlier.

FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42
A. 01/2330Z,02/0530Z
B. NOAA2 0702A BERYL
C. 01/2230Z
D. 13.3N 64.3W
E. 01/2300Z TO 02/0530Z
G. FIX & TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. WRA ACTIVATION

I wish it was AF not NOAA. NOAA's reading just seem a little goofy to me.

What do you mean?

It just seems that their readings come out different than the AF. The AF has been doing this for decades and NOAA is relatively new to the scene. Just guess I am AF biased because my sister was in the AF.

[WaveBreaking]

I wouldn't believe you if you said this image was taken in early July.

Also first post here! Been lurking for about a year now, but after seeing how Beryl performed/is performing, I don't want to miss out on what is most likely going to be a historic season.

[ConvergenceZone]

As the Tropical Meteorologists on the Weather Channel were saying, far as the USA is concerned, Thank God for strong High Pressure!
Wish the weather channel didn't have so many damn commercials though lol.

Depends on where/how strong the high pressure ridge is relative to the hurricane’s position. Same for troughs too. They can both prevent disaster (thank goodness) or if the timing is off, then yeah that would be a horrible no good, very bad day for somebody.

Northerly shear in a west-moving storm would likely weaken it significantly, if it holds up when Beryl arrives.

As for now, I would say the intensity is 135 kt, with a pressure of 942 mb, based on extrapolation of the previous data.

Good point. After it emerges back into the Gulf, I think Beryl can still hit Mexico as a depression or weak tropical storm in spite of the horrible environmental conditions. But who knows, it could fall apart entirely like some are thinking. I think the biggest concern for Mexico is going to be the rain.

[FireRat]

The rippling effect at the end of this loop is crazy... wow

https://media4.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExNnU1OWo1cndwYjc3N2F5a2xjNmlrNzlvYmdtZDR6NXE3dzdoNTAzeiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/g0FKPLmv7XE7qTnC4r/giphy.gif

Visually this looks like a Cat 5 already! Waiting on Recon to see what they find!

[TheBurn]

5-min Lightning Flash

[AxaltaRacing24]

Not trying to be that guy, but this storm is starting to get that “obviously a cat 5” look to it every frame. would be shocked if it’s currently under 155mph.

[galaxy401]

Add me in the camp that thinks that it's at least 155 mph. Could be Cat 5 since it was on it's way there when Recon left.

[aspen]

Next mission departs at 6:30 PM EDT and is from NOAA. I would have wished it departs earlier.

FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42
A. 01/2330Z,02/0530Z
B. NOAA2 0702A BERYL
C. 01/2230Z
D. 13.3N 64.3W
E. 01/2300Z TO 02/0530Z
G. FIX & TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. WRA ACTIVATION

So if I’m reading that right, it’s supposed to arrive around 7:30pm EST?

[floridasun]

some saying it moving more north west not west north west do you see that or Woddle of center?

[MarioProtVI]

This is at least 135 kt right now. Highest I can see NHC going until we get recon in later. The Cat 5 upgrade may come at 11 if they find stronger winds.

[Hurrilurker]

This is at least 135 kt right now. Highest I can see NHC going until we get recon in later. The Cat 5 upgrade may come at 11 if they find stronger winds.

Plane may miss the peak unfortunately.

[Xyls]

This is at least 135 kt right now. Highest I can see NHC going until we get recon in later. The Cat 5 upgrade may come at 11 if they find stronger winds.

Plane may miss the peak unfortunately.

First of all based on satellite image alone it's probably safe to say this is at least 160MPH right now and should be upgraded to a Cat 5. Recon really isn't needed to do the upgrade.

[aspen]

This is at least 135 kt right now. Highest I can see NHC going until we get recon in later. The Cat 5 upgrade may come at 11 if they find stronger winds.

Plane may miss the peak unfortunately.

First of all based on satellite image alone it's probably safe to say this is at least 160MPH right now and should be upgraded to a Cat 5. Recon really isn't needed to do the upgrade.

The NHC won’t upgrade to a Cat 5 unless they have very strong evidence this is one: either multiple T7.0 Dvorak ratings, or recon to confirm (>150 kt FL, multiple reliable >140 kt SFMR readings). Just because it looks like a Cat 5 and has a high chance of being one does not mean it’s enough for an upgrade (ex: Sam between recon flights).

[cheezyWXguy]

Hopefully Beryl will maintain this peak for the next 3 hours until recon gets to the center. While the core still looks as good as ever, the bands on the SW side are flattening out, suggesting shear is likely to infringe soon.

[Sciencerocks]

[mpic]

Is The Weather Channel or anybody reporting on conditions in the islands yet? I hope they were more prepared than several news stations said they were. Prayers for them going forward.