ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[USTropics]

Beryl is likely peaking at this very moment, clear stadium effect occurring in the eye with multiple rotating mesovorts. A truly breathtaking and astonishing hurricane for any basin or any time of season:

[NDG]

What an insult by the Miami Herald, lol.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1807878166989754629

[Hurricane2022]

Beryl is likely peaking at this very moment
https://i.imgur.com/rIBnzc8.png

Nooooooooooo

[WaveBreaking]

NHC keeping Beryl at 150mph per 5pm update. Pressure down to 944mb.

[ConvergenceZone]

Beryl is likely peaking at this very moment
https://i.imgur.com/rIBnzc8.png

Nooooooooooo

it's much better that it's peaking now than peaking if it was near a landfall...Don't worry, the shear should take care of it soon.

[AerospaceEng]

NHC shifted north again, and emphasized large uncertainty after Mexico landfall.

[aspen]

https://imgur.com/0NOb7Ux.jpg

NHC keeping Beryl at 150mph per 5pm update. Pressure down to 944mb.

They really don’t trust those 135-140kt+ recon readings lol

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Has wind shear ever destroyed a Category 4 or 5 hurricane? And how strong is the wind shear over the Caribbean supposed to be?

[kronotsky]

While it would be nice to have recon in the storm 24/7, it doesn't seem particularly likely that Beryl will weaken substantially in the few hours or so before they get there.

[cheezyWXguy]

Beryl is likely peaking at this very moment
https://i.imgur.com/rIBnzc8.png

Nooooooooooo

it's much better that it's peaking now than peaking if it was near a landfall...Don't worry, the shear should take care of it soon.

I think this is referring to Recon missing peak intensity, not making landfall at peak intensity.

[ElectricStorm]

I wish they would schedule recon to where the AF and NOAA planes wouldn't be in the storm at the same time. Instead just have one right after the other. I don't understand why they always go at the same time, would get much better data with better scheduling. I think this is a little stronger than 130kts but we'll never know without recon and there's no way to go any higher with current satellite data.

[Xyls]

Has wind shear ever destroyed a Category 4 or 5 hurricane? And how strong is the wind shear over the Caribbean supposed to be?

Hurricane Lee last year is a great example of wind shear destroying a Cat 5.

[aspen]

Has wind shear ever destroyed a Category 4 or 5 hurricane? And how strong is the wind shear over the Caribbean supposed to be?

Lee last year got knocked down a few pegs by some poorly forecast shear after blowing up into a 145 kt Cat 5. While it didn’t destroy the storm, it weakened it down to a 2/3 and it wasn’t able to fully recover.

Beryl will be running into like 20-25 kt shear IIRC. It’s moving W/NW, but there’s flow going almost perpendicular to its track. It should reach that between tomorrow morning and afternoon.

[Teban54]

If it looks like a Cat 5...

[Hurrilurker]

I wish they would schedule recon to where the AF and NOAA planes wouldn't be in the storm at the same time. Instead just have one right after the other. I don't understand why they always go at the same time, would get much better data with better scheduling. I think this is a little stronger than 130kts but we'll never know without recon and there's no way to go any higher with current satellite data.

That's a great point and yes, it does seem like it would be better to have the sampling spread out. But they probably have their reasons. For one thing I would guess they like to have confirmation on sketchy readings, and a backup in case of equipment/plane failure.

[3090]

Has wind shear ever destroyed a Category 4 or 5 hurricane? And how strong is the wind shear over the Caribbean supposed to be?

Lee last year got knocked down a few pegs by some poorly forecast shear after blowing up into a 145 kt Cat 5. While it didn’t destroy the storm, it weakened it down to a 2/3 and it wasn’t able to fully recover.

Beryl will be running into like 20-25 kt shear IIRC. It’s moving W/NW, but there’s flow going almost perpendicular to its track. It should reach that between tomorrow morning and afternoon.

The shear appears to me to be moving (lifting) some from SW/NE to a more E/W flow and moving to a more northerly position ahead of Beryl’s future path.

[Sunnydays]

I believe Recon will be there in a couple hours. Maybe hang on to 5 ( if It is a 5 that is) for 2 more hours or so?

[MGC]

Quite an impressive sat loop this afternoon. Could be a 5 but I've seen plenty of 4s with incredible sat presentations. Beryl has about a day left of good upper level condition before the hurricane hits a wall of shear south of Hispaniola......MGC

[USTropics]

Has wind shear ever destroyed a Category 4 or 5 hurricane? And how strong is the wind shear over the Caribbean supposed to be?

Hurricane Delta in 2020 is an excellent example. This was Delta near its peak:


At the time, some thought this was the eye clearing (the center was actually more north). This was deterioration from wind shear and dry air. The one thing Beryl has going for it (that Delta did not) is it underwent and EWRC and was able to expand the eye radius. Systems with smaller inner cores are more susceptible to abrupt collapsing from shear + dry air entrainment:


I will also state, peaking now doesn't mean we will immediately see degradation, rather Beryl could level off for the next 6-12 hours. Shear begins to pick up after this time though. You can see from the GFS sounding below, Beryl enters a trade wind belt. This increases wind speed at the lower levels, and subsequently the TUTT will impart southwesterly flow. This decreases the wind speed in the mid-to-upper levels. The net result is mid-level westerly shear:

[cheezyWXguy]

Has wind shear ever destroyed a Category 4 or 5 hurricane? And how strong is the wind shear over the Caribbean supposed to be?

Lee last year got knocked down a few pegs by some poorly forecast shear after blowing up into a 145 kt Cat 5. While it didn’t destroy the storm, it weakened it down to a 2/3 and it wasn’t able to fully recover.

Beryl will be running into like 20-25 kt shear IIRC. It’s moving W/NW, but there’s flow going almost perpendicular to its track. It should reach that between tomorrow morning and afternoon.

This is a good point, I would expect a similar degradation to occur with Beryl as we saw with Lee, though maybe not quite as fast. The first major sign of Lee’s degradation was increasingly rapid contraction of the eye. Some initially thought this was a sign of continued intensification, but in reality the eyewall was collapsing due to shear reaching the core. In retrospect, it should have been clear what was happening since it was contracting so quickly, but it was hard to believe Lee’s eye was degrading that fast immediately after strengthening so explosively.

Edit to add: nothing like this is occurring right now though. Although outflow is a bit constricted on the southern side, the cod is even more symmetrical than earlier and the eye is stable. The outflow constriction we’re seeing may not even be shear related, but just due to proximity to South America. No sign of unfavorable conditions encroaching on the core as of now.