ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Has wind shear ever destroyed a Category 4 or 5 hurricane? And how strong is the wind shear over the Caribbean supposed to be?

Lee last year got knocked down a few pegs by some poorly forecast shear after blowing up into a 145 kt Cat 5. While it didn’t destroy the storm, it weakened it down to a 2/3 and it wasn’t able to fully recover.

Beryl will be running into like 20-25 kt shear IIRC. It’s moving W/NW, but there’s flow going almost perpendicular to its track. It should reach that between tomorrow morning and afternoon.

So would I be wrong to assume that Beryl might come out of the shear as a Category 1 or 2? I’m asking because I’m just finding it hard to believe that a well-developed Category 4 (maybe 5) will be knocked down to a TS or TD prior to hitting the Yucatán. Beryl is moving at a decent clip, so it’ll only be dealing with shear for no more than a day, right?

Also, from what I read, Lee grew in size while dealing with shear. Can shear cause that to happen?

[aspen]

Has wind shear ever destroyed a Category 4 or 5 hurricane? And how strong is the wind shear over the Caribbean supposed to be?

Lee last year got knocked down a few pegs by some poorly forecast shear after blowing up into a 145 kt Cat 5. While it didn’t destroy the storm, it weakened it down to a 2/3 and it wasn’t able to fully recover.

Beryl will be running into like 20-25 kt shear IIRC. It’s moving W/NW, but there’s flow going almost perpendicular to its track. It should reach that between tomorrow morning and afternoon.

So would I be wrong to assume that Beryl might come out of the shear as a Category 1 or 2? I’m asking because I’m just finding it hard to believe that a well-developed Category 4 (maybe 5) will be knocked down to a TS or TD prior to hitting the Yucatán. Beryl is moving at a decent clip, so it’ll only be dealing with shear for no more than a day, right?

Also, from what I read, Lee grew in size while dealing with shear. Can shear cause that to happen?

Lee was undergoing an EWRC post-Cat 5 while dealing with shear, which is why its wind field expanded IIRC.

I can see Beryl getting knocked down to a Cat 1 or 2. The hurricane models have been hinting that conditions improve on Thursday and Beryl could restrengthen before hitting Mexico, so I think it’s unlikely to degrade all the way to a TS.

[NDG]

I am having a hard time believing that it will encounter so much shear in the central and western Caribbean to weaken it so much as the GFS shows.
Clearly the TUTT is forecasted to start moving out of its way.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Beryl's cloud tops are cooling again in the latest frames. Maybe it is intensifying again?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Satellite presentation is more impressive than Dennis or Emily. Reminds me of Dean.

[tolakram]

latest loop


source: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=940.5170454978943&y=892.3721618652344&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=20240701214126&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[tolakram]

I think there's a good chance recon will catch the peak. Going over more heat content and still in a low shear environment.

[tolakram]

[tropicwatch]

Beryl is due west of St. Vincent and I don't think it is supposed to be that far north at this point.

[tolakram]

[Nimbus]

Wobble watchers probably noticed the due west jog the last hour or so.
Recon will probably find a cat 5 but hopefully with stabilizing pressures.
I don't know how much outflow that TUTT can take...

[USTropics]

I am having a hard time believing that it will encounter so much shear in the central and western Caribbean to weaken it so much as the GFS shows.
Clearly the TUTT is forecasted to start moving out of its way.

This is the key here, and the GFS is overdoing the degradation of Beryl imo. When we have a significant system like Beryl, the diabatic processes creates a radial outflow at the upper levels (dark blues here). We can best see this in cyclonic potential vorticity products (such as the GFS 335K PV). A classic example is Dorian, that literally shredded the PV streamer/TUTT to its north. If we were to go back to the 00z run from June 30th (where the GFS maintained a stronger Beryl), we can see the outflow from Beryl is able to thin the TUTT and breaks it into 2 parts:

[tolakram]

[ScottNAtlanta]

Video from Carriacou



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=N7ce0TUdiGc

[WaveBreaking]

Hope recon gets there before the shear does.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I think there is a reasonable chance that this is a Cat 5. July 1. What the heck.

[TheBurn]

[Xyls]

Video from Carriacou

https://youtu.be/N7ce0TUdiGc?si=X4JB1Hf_0MUjqtqx

2:35 yikes.

[Hurrilurker]

The core looks great, but it does look like it has some shear from the SW and sucking in some dry air from the SE?

[Category5Kaiju]

The WPAC just called, they want their super typhoon back