ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/AL022024/AirMass/20241831430-20241832110-ABI-AL022024-AirMass-1000x1000.gif

Darn, the dreaded donut, wouldn’t be surprised if recon found a pressure in the low 930s and a cat 5

[bob rulz]

I would be genuinely shocked if this wasn't a cat 5 right now. I think there's still a pretty good chance that recon gets there before any weakening.

[Hammy]

The question is whether the plane gets there in time before the weakening begins. The eye is starting to look a bit ragged and there's some drying to the east and southwest.

[cheezyWXguy]

NOAA flight en route to Beryl. Moment of truth coming up…

[WaveBreaking]

The question is whether the plane gets there in time before the weakening begins. The eye is starting to look a bit ragged and there's some drying to the east and southwest.

https://i.imgur.com/RbQ2VdY.png

Despite the drying, Beryl seems to be trying to get a solid W ring again in the last few frames. But time will tell if this trend is ephemeral or will hold till recon.

[aspen]

The question is whether the plane gets there in time before the weakening begins. The eye is starting to look a bit ragged and there's some drying to the east and southwest.

https://i.imgur.com/RbQ2VdY.png

It just needs to hold for another hour or so, just long enough for a recon pass.

Man what is it with all these storms peaking between flights? Some strangely frequent bad luck.

[floridasun]

i think their keep it same wind speed

[IcyTundra]

Sorry if this is meant for the models thread but I was just wondering what is the cause of the GFS constantly initializing Beryl far weaker than she actually is?

[Beef Stew]

I personally suspect Beryl truly peaked roughly an hour ago, probably as a 140-145 kt system, but it’s impossible to say for sure. When recon arrives, I think it’s going to find wind speeds pretty much the same as the last pass, but with a significantly lower pressure, indicating that additional strengthening did occur but was not sampled.

[aspen]

Sorry if this is meant for the models thread but I was just wondering what is the cause of the GFS constantly initializing Beryl far weaker than she actually is?

In yesterday’s video, Levi said how the globals were probably poorly initializing Beryl because it’s such a compact storm and they have a fairly low resolution.

[IcyTundra]

Sorry if this is meant for the models thread but I was just wondering what is the cause of the GFS constantly initializing Beryl far weaker than she actually is?

In yesterday’s video, Levi said how the globals were probably poorly initializing Beryl because it’s such a compact storm and they have a fairly low resolution.

Thank you didn't think about that.

[ConvergenceZone]

Video from Carriacou

https://youtu.be/N7ce0TUdiGc?si=X4JB1Hf_0MUjqtqx

Insane video that was. It's so weird to hear people laughing and hooting and hollering in the background as roofs are blown off and tons of other damage occurred. Maybe it was just nervous laughter I don't know.

[Cpav54]

Any guesses on recon data? I’m thinking 140 kt with mid-high 930s

[aspen]

Recon is currently at 14.8N/62.7W, while the center of Beryl is around 13.5N/63.8W. Looks like they’re positioning themselves to fly through the stronger NE quad first.

[Beef Stew]

Any guesses on recon data? I’m thinking 140 kt with mid-high 930s

I'm guessing 130 kts and a pressure of 937 mb.

[Cpav54]

Recon is currently at 14.8N/62.7W, while the center of Beryl is around 13.5N/63.8W. Looks like they’re positioning themselves to fly through the stronger NE quad first.

How long until the data gets back do you think

[USTropics]

Most recent microwave pass from exactly an hour ago:

[Cpav54]

Any guesses on recon data? I’m thinking 140 kt with mid-high 930s

I'm guessing 130 kts and a pressure of 937 mb.

Given how it doesn’t look too different from an hour ago I think it could be Cat 5

[kronotsky]

The question is whether the plane gets there in time before the weakening begins. The eye is starting to look a bit ragged and there's some drying to the east and southwest.

https://i.imgur.com/RbQ2VdY.png

I would honestly be more worried about recon arriving too early given the difference in presentation between these two images. The cloud tops are very clearly cooling. Maybe just some nervous energy in the forum? Not really sure what y'all are so worried about

[USTropics]

Recon is currently at 14.8N/62.7W, while the center of Beryl is around 13.5N/63.8W. Looks like they’re positioning themselves to fly through the stronger NE quad first.

How long until the data gets back do you think

Should have our first pass in the next ~20 minutes, NE to SW pass as well: