ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Charleswachal]

140 knots surface and 172 knot flight level winds on that dropsound. Maybe a cat 5 now but definitely one earlier today

[Cpav54]

Yep

[Sciencerocks]

They need budget for 2 more planes and pilots so they can get regular recon on these without gaps.

One day I hope to see drones continuously flying storm missions when manned recon can't be present. But that being said, I never want to see the entire recon program switched over to drones! Huge fan of our hurricane hunters.

I'd like to see dozens of drones stationed in the cape verdes, mexico, leeward islands, Bermuda and Canada. Imagine having 2-3 at anyone one time in a storm like Beryl? There's no question in my mind that it would be a cat5 with that level of coverage.

[cycloneye]

I don't think this pass validates an upgrade past 135 kts at the present, and the NHC may even keep it at 130. However, I strongly believe this was easily a category 5 earlier this afternoon.

There may be revision on post season report.

[Hammy]

Given the rate of intensification earlier and 155 now combined with the slightly degraded satellite from earlier, I'd put this at 160 at 5pm

[Beef Stew]

They need budget for 2 more planes and pilots so they can get regular recon on these without gaps.

One day I hope to see drones continuously flying storm missions when manned recon can't be present. But that being said, I never want to see the entire recon program switched over to drones! Huge fan of our hurricane hunters.

I'd like to see dozens of drones stationed in the cape verdes, mexico, leeward islands, Bermuda and Canada. Imagine having 2-3 at anyone one time in a storm like Beryl? There's no question in my mind that it would be a cat5 with that level of coverage.

If I ever become a billionaire... or president- I'll make it happen.

I can think of many storms that I suspect would have different recorded peaks- not to mention the data we could gather for modeling with such a continuous stream of data.

[aspen]

135 kt. Whomp.

[kronotsky]

Given the rate of intensification earlier and 155 now combined with the slightly degraded satellite from earlier, I'd put this at 160 at 5pm

I feel like I'm crazy -- to me, the satellite presentation has clearly improved slightly over the last few hours. What is everyone talking about????

[Cpav54]

I mean there’s always the outside chance that it could somehow restrengthen for the next scan at 2 AM EDT.

[CrazyC83]

I mean there’s always the outside chance that it could somehow restrengthen for the next scan at 2 AM EDT.

Or a future pass from Recon could justify such intensity undisputed.

[Category5Kaiju]

155/938?

Looks like Beryl's history of having abnormally high pressures based on its wind speeds is over

[FLpanhandle91]

It's arguably a 5 now and it was a 145kt storm earlier. Fairly confident in post-season upgrade.

[Cpav54]

I mean there’s always the outside chance that it could somehow restrengthen for the next scan at 2 AM EDT.

Or a future pass from Recon could justify such intensity undisputed.

Yeah exactly, ngl I really hope this happens.

[Category5Kaiju]

Hey, I have an idea.

Let's make the Saffir Simpson scale so that Category 5 hurricanes start at 155 mph. That'll solve a lot of issues, wouldn't it haha? I mean, how exactly did they first determine that a 155 should be a 4 and a 160 should be a 5?

[Kazmit]

Never understood why the NHC treats the upgrade to a cat 5 differently than upgrades to other categories, but oh well. I’m more confident on this being a 5 than I was with Ian, so I think it’ll still make the cut.

[ConvergenceZone]

Video from Carriacou

https://youtu.be/N7ce0TUdiGc?si=X4JB1Hf_0MUjqtqx

Insane video that was. It's so weird to hear people laughing and hooting and hollering in the background as roofs are blown off and tons of other damage occurred. Maybe it was just nervous laughter I don't know.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Hlhqkm-tjQ
Here's a drone video of the aftermath. Looks like every building was damaged.

thanks for sharing. At least the foundations of most of the homes are in-tact, but of course without roofs now they are going to face even more water damage from stray thunderstorms. . Not sure how long it would take them to repair all of those roofs.

[Zonacane]

borderline category 5 hurricane on July 1st

[FLpanhandle91]

Never understood why the NHC treats the upgrade to a cat 5 differently than upgrades to other categories, but oh well. I’m more confident on this being a 5 than I was with Ian, so I think it’ll still make the cut.

It's nuanced. Same type of unachievable that the NWS gives EF5 tornadoes.

[Teban54]

Hey, I have an idea.

Let's make the Saffir Simpson scale so that Category 5 hurricanes start at 155 mph. That'll solve a lot of issues, wouldn't it haha? I mean, how exactly did they first determine that a 155 should be a 4 and a 160 should be a 5?

It's particularly weird because Cat 4 covers a wider range of intensities than other hurricane categories. With only NHC intensities (i.e. multiples of 5) considered, here are the numbers of possible intensities that fall within each category:

• TS: 6 (35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60)
• C1: 4 (65, 70, 75, 80)
• C2: 3 (85, 90, 95)
• C3: 3 (100, 105, 110)
• C4: 5 (115, 120, 125, 130, 135)
• C5: Technically infinite

Going from Cat 4 to Cat 5 requires 5 "jumps", whereas all other hurricane categories need at most 4, often 3. This might be why many rapidly intensifying storms often "skip" Cat 2 or Cat 3, and why there's a large spectrum within Cat 4 itself (a borderline 115 kt Cat 4 is very different from a 135 kt one).

[Hurricane2022]

Weakening, stable or (re)intensifying???