ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Never understood why the NHC treats the upgrade to a cat 5 differently than upgrades to other categories, but oh well. I’m more confident on this being a 5 than I was with Ian, so I think it’ll still make the cut.

It's nuanced. Same type of unachievable that the NWS gives EF5 tornadoes.

Except for just last year the NHC upgraded Lee to Category 5 based off recon data and it wasn't a threat to land.

I have confidence Beryl was a Category 5 about 3-4 hours ago; more data is needed but I think it could still be one based on the next pass.

[Hurrilurker]

Given the rate of intensification earlier and 155 now combined with the slightly degraded satellite from earlier, I'd put this at 160 at 5pm

I feel like I'm crazy -- to me, the satellite presentation has clearly improved slightly over the last few hours. What is everyone talking about????

Eye is slightly more ragged than it was (though still good) and it's fighting off dry air in multiple quadrants...some of that is bound to get mixed in and disrupt the core.

[cheezyWXguy]

I’m not sure Beryl’s chance for an upgrade is off the table yet. The cdo is more uniformly cold than ever right now and the eye temp is still quite high. Intensification could resume if shear backs off for even a short time.

[Ian2401]

i dont understand the obsession with category 5 and never will. it means nothing the difference between 155 & 160mph

[MississippiWx]

The CDO is cooling once again. I could see another round of intensification coming.

[tiger_deF]

It’s interesting, banding has collapsed to the East and West of the core, yet the convection remains deep. Wonder if this preludes quick weakening or some other structural shift.

[Zonacane]

It’s interesting, banding has collapsed across all quadrants, yet the convection remains deep. Wonder if this preludes quick weakening or some other structural shift.

Might be a legitimate case of the A word if it holds up

[ScottNAtlanta]

Insane video that was. It's so weird to hear people laughing and hooting and hollering in the background as roofs are blown off and tons of other damage occurred. Maybe it was just nervous laughter I don't know.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Hlhqkm-tjQ
Here's a drone video of the aftermath. Looks like every building was damaged.

thanks for sharing. At least the foundations of most of the homes are in-tact, but of course without roofs now they are going to face even more water damage from stray thunderstorms. . Not sure how long it would take them to repair all of those roofs.

I am frankly amazed that the damage was not much worse. There were some buildings that looked like they had minimal damage, and of course some destroyed. They must have strong building codes in those islands.
Looks like the airports runway is not damage or blocked so they will be able to fly things in for relief efforts.

I just realized at 7:20 of the video he is filming IN THE EYE!

[Kazmit]

i dont understand the obsession with category 5 and never will. it means nothing the difference between 155 & 160mph

Just for us statistics lovers to marvel at.

[aspen]

I’m not sure Beryl’s chance for an upgrade is off the table yet. The cdo is more uniformly cold than ever right now and the eye temp is still quite high. Intensification could resume if shear backs off for even a short time.

Watch, it’s gonna intensify some more after recon leaves lol

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks like beryl is intensifying again. Let’s see if it can push to cat 5 and beyond?

[kevin]

There might've been some slight degredation 2 hours ago, but tbh I don't think it was that much and I highly doubt its sufficient for a cat 5 post-season upgrade. The CDO seems to be cooling even more in recent frames so imo it seems to be deepening at the moment. Beryl's best case for a cat 5 imo is now and not with post-season analysis.

[kronotsky]

Given the rate of intensification earlier and 155 now combined with the slightly degraded satellite from earlier, I'd put this at 160 at 5pm

I feel like I'm crazy -- to me, the satellite presentation has clearly improved slightly over the last few hours. What is everyone talking about????

Eye is slightly more ragged than it was (though still good) and it's fighting off dry air in multiple quadrants...some of that is bound to get mixed in and disrupt the core.

No, I disagree completely. Outer bands fading and refiring is not evidence of dry air intrusion, and the eye is exactly the same as it was four hours ago. The convection is notably colder. I understand that folks are bracing themselves to be bummed about "missing out" on a category 5, but the data simply do not support a weakening trend in the last few hours.

[Hurrilurker]

Looks like beryl is intensifying again. Let’s see if it can push to cat 5 and beyond?

Passing over some oceanic heat content hotspots, so it's possible, if the shear doesn't attack in force. But is recon going to sync up this time or miss it again (likely did last pass)?

[FLpanhandle91]

At what point does forward motion of a storm diminish the significance of OHC?

[Category5Kaiju]

At what point does forward motion of a storm diminish the significance of OHC?

If you get an extremely powerful storm, like Dorian, that moves extremely slowly or even stalls over several days.

[tolakram]

003330 1331N 06412W 6967 02647 9341 +224 +380 157011 /// /// /// 05
003400 1333N 06414W 6985 02618 9354 +229 +114 122022 026 009 000 03
003430 1334N 06415W 6971 02643 9366 +231 +065 096032 035 007 001 00
003500 1336N 06417W 6963 02671 9384 +227 +071 073044 049 000 000 00
003530 1338N 06419W 6951 02718 9446 +189 +117 055064 077 092 031 00
003600 1339N 06420W 6968 02747 9532 +150 +145 049099 115 135 027 00
003630 1341N 06421W 6985 02800 9630 +135 +142 048136 138 137 064 01
003700 1342N 06423W 7124 02705 9692 +159 +126 053132 136 013 009 00
003730 1343N 06424W 7133 02749 9760 +151 +135 059124 132 011 009 00
003800 1345N 06426W 7062 02871 9814 +139 +109 065120 123 010 008 00

[Hurrilurker]

Looks like NOAA plane heading in now, might be a pretty good sample.

EDIT: Looks like it found 934 but just looking at the raw data so I'm not sure.

[Sciencerocks]

137 knt smrf and 934 mb pressure

[Tireman4]

I worry about the folks in the islands that Beryl just left. I hope all is ok and recovery efforts will not be massive.