ATL: BERYL - Models

[IcyTundra]

HAFS-B is the strongest of the hurricane models at 18Z. I'm wondering how conditions will be if it gets into the Gulf and I'm getting mixed signals on that. It should exit the Yucatan sometime Friday afternoon or evening so there is still some time for things to become more clear.

[lsuhurricane]

18z EPS continues the northward trend. Easy to see the split after passing Jamaica.

[captainbarbossa19]

18z EPS continues the northward trend. Easy to see the split after passing Jamaica.

https://i.ibb.co/bdGr1H2/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Gulf-of-Mexico-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-4.gif

It's hard to tell, but that looks like about half of the members take this north now.

[IcyTundra]

0Z TVCN is a bit further north. We should see a slight northern shift from the NHC at the 10PM update.

[sphelps8681]

0Z TVCN is a bit further north. We should see a slight northern shift from the NHC at the 10PM update.

I am in SE Tx near LA border. When will we have a better idea of what is going on.

[Cpv17]

0Z TVCN is a bit further north. We should see a slight northern shift from the NHC at the 10PM update.

I am in SE Tx near LA border. When will we have a better idea of what is going on.

In 48 hours.

[3090]

The very obvious WNW speed at a break neck level is certainly a concern.

[ROCK]

18Z Navy didn't budget from the 12Z that much. Still showing TX/LA border. Thought track would have been locked down at 144hr by now with all globals.

[La Breeze]

0Z TVCN is a bit further north. We should see a slight northern shift from the NHC at the 10PM update.

I am in SE Tx near LA border. When will we have a better idea of what is going on.

I'm just across the border in SW LA and I have the same question -

[LadyBug72]

0Z TVCN is a bit further north. We should see a slight northern shift from the NHC at the 10PM update.

I am in SE Tx near LA border. When will we have a better idea of what is going on.

I'm just across the border in SW LA and I have the same question -[/quote

I’m in coastal Texas. We should know more info by Wednesday.

[La Breeze]

I am in SE Tx near LA border. When will we have a better idea of what is going on.

I'm just across the border in SW LA and I have the same question -[/quote

I’m in coastal Texas. We should know more info by Wednesday.

Coastal SW La here - thanks.

[LadyBug72]

I'm just across the border in SW LA and I have the same question -[/quote

I’m in coastal Texas. We should know more info by Wednesday.

Coastal SW La here - thanks.

You’re welcome! I’m in SE Texas.

[jasons2k]

Hi all, we welcome the neighborly posts but please keep those over on the general Beryl discussion thread. This thread needs to stay succinct and focused on the models only. Thanks.

[hurricane2025]

Icon could be la this run

[hurricane2025]

Icon centra la

[ROCK]

Icon could be la this run

Doesn’t dive into Belize like the other globals. Similar to the NAVGEM 18Z

[USTropics]

I'm expecting track shifts north in the next few model runs based on current intensity and how the stronger ensemble members have this tracking a bit more north.

We'll need to see how Beryl interacts with the westerly shear coming up. There are also signs in the latest microwave pass that a second EWRC may take place soon. At this point, land interaction with Yucatan Peninsula and possibly Jamaica in the foreseeable future is unavoidable imo. That adds a lot of variables to forecasting intensity.

The good news is currently the GFS and ECMWF models don't show the most conducive environment in the GOM for rapid intensification. With that said, Beryl has given the global models the "hold my beer" treatment.

Definitely interesting days ahead, if you live along the Texas coast or LA now is a good time to get your hurricane preparations in check.

[Frank P]

18z ICON

[IcyTundra]

Wow ICON into SE Louisiana

[HurricaneBrain]

Quite the shift from the 12z which showed MX/TX border. Where she interacts with the Yucatán will be a pivotal point regarding any US impact.

18z ICON
[url]https://i.ibb.co/4TkTyrC/IMG-4174.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/b2dtTB6/IMG-4175.jpg [/url]