ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

[Teban54]

Storm2K to 96L, in any other year: "Wow, we have a cherry in the MDR in late June, what a harbinger of the rest of the season! Does ASCAT show a closed LLC yet? It might even survive the East Caribbean graveyard in July, that's insane! Is HWRF showing a hurricane? Could this be a Florida threat?"

Storm2K to 96L, in 2024:

[jlauderdal]

Storm2K to 96L, in any other year: "Wow, we have a cherry in the MDR in late June, what a harbinger of the rest of the season! Does ASCAT show a closed LLC yet? It might even survive the East Caribbean graveyard in July, that's insane! Is HWRF showing a hurricane? Could this be a Florida threat?"

Storm2K to 96L, in 2024:
https://media3.giphy.com/media/3o7TKBcOTDTFR6gn6M/giphy.gif?cid=6c09b952eogg61b7ugma2avrx0wxknx4rlgnmuq7hycbmfw0&ep=v1_internal_gif_by_id&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g

There was plenty of action in SEFL yesterday, and starting the same way this morning, with deep convection of the Atlantic already. I wouldn't write off 96L; this season is different.

[Teban54]

Down to 30/60

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located over 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward
Islands. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western tropical
Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[ROCK]

Already has a LLC from that SAT view though displaced. Trying to stack with a COD but I think it’s outrunning itself. JMO of course.

[IcyTundra]

Good to see that 96L isn't expected to be much of a threat. Of course we should still keep an eye on it but it will be nice to hopefully have a bit of a quiet period in the tropics after Beryl.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located over 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward
Islands. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western tropical
Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Storm2K to 96L, in any other year: "Wow, we have a cherry in the MDR in late June, what a harbinger of the rest of the season! Does ASCAT show a closed LLC yet? It might even survive the East Caribbean graveyard in July, that's insane! Is HWRF showing a hurricane? Could this be a Florida threat?"

Storm2K to 96L, in 2024:
https://media3.giphy.com/media/3o7TKBcOTDTFR6gn6M/giphy.gif?cid=6c09b952eogg61b7ugma2avrx0wxknx4rlgnmuq7hycbmfw0&ep=v1_internal_gif_by_id&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g

There was plenty of action in SEFL yesterday, and starting the same way this morning, with deep convection of the Atlantic already. I wouldn't write off 96L; this season is different.

Hate to say I agree. We are looking at a 2005 like hyperactive season. Lots of heat, wierd solar anomalies..perfect combo. Same as 2005

[cycloneye]

Even as the models are not bullish, I would not turn my back on this, as I live in PR and I know that the tropics are a dynamic area and changes occur a lot.

[ElectricStorm]

Down to 20/50 and lost nearly all model support, I'd imagine probs will continue to be lowered in future outlooks. Not going to completely write it off yet though

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have diminished somewhat in
association with an area of low pressure located over 1000 miles
east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Environmental conditions
only appear marginally conducive for additional development of this
system, but a tropical depression could still form during the next
few days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across
the central and western tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[tolakram]

Doomed

If you're a wannabe storm do not follow a major. This wave needs to be watched, I bet it develops at some point.

[Hammy]

Doomed

If you're a wannabe storm do not follow a major. This wave needs to be watched, I bet it develops at some point.

So was this done in by the outflow or water temperature wake? I'm surprised how quickly it fell apart

[CrazyC83]

I think the outflow from Beryl is hurting it badly, which the models failed to diagnose since they didn't expect Beryl to become this intense.

[jlauderdal]

I think the outflow from Beryl is hurting it badly, which the models failed to diagnose since they didn't expect Beryl to become this intense.

Intensity is always tricky, and in the current setup, models are struggling. 96L might not do much but the next system is coming.

[xironman]

The fact it is just a sharp wave keeps it heading westward. Once it gets to around Jamaica Beryl will be long gone, then maybe some development.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Beryl, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for
development of this system while it moves generally westward at 15
to 20 mph across the western tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean
Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should still monitor the
progress of this system, with heavy rainfall possible midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Beryl, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

1. East of the Windward Islands (AL96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished and become less
organized since yesterday in association with a tropical wave
located several hundred miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands. Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive for any development of this system while it moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the western tropical
Atlantic and eastern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are
possible as the system crosses the Lesser Antilles through midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Hurley/Fracasso

[Blinhart]

Time for Bones???