ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Cat 5 on July 1, incredible. Absolutely insane

[JRD]

Given how early and quickly it got this strong I guess it wanted to be the megapode or blue wildebeest of tropical cyclones.

[Xyls]

What an incredible storm- here's a record I suspect will hold for quite a long time. It's been an honor to witness history with you tonight, Storm2k.

There is a more ominous feeling that's sticking with me right now too- I really doubt Beryl will be the strongest storm we see this season...

At this point, everything is on the table. A 190 mph landfall on Miami. A hurricane that beats Cyclone Freddy's total ACE. A December Category 5 hurricane. I wouldn't be surprised.

The one I'm eyeing is a sub-900 storm. I'd never bet on it, but if there ever seemed to be a year...

I mean the only year to have this happen on more than one occasion was 2005. And it almost managed to do it 3 times (Katrina was 902). 2017 did not even manage to accomplish this even with Irma and Maria. So I think a sub 900 is possible this year. Will it do it multiple times? Well we will wait and see as that will likely be something should it occur that will happen in the late season.

[galaxy401]

Worth mentioning that every season since 2015 had one storm that was or near borderline Category 5 intensity.

2015: Joaquin
2016: Matthew
2017: Irma and Maria
2018: Michael
2019: Dorian and Lorenzo
2020: Eta and Iota
2021: Sam
2022: Ian
2023: Lee

And now Beryl. One could make the argument that the Atlantic has had a Cat 5 every year since 2015 if you think the 155 mph storms were indeed a 5.

[chaser1]

Whether there will be another ERC to come, right now at least I am seeing a slight degree of eye contraction with -70 cloud tops solidly wrapped around like a fortress.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm almost certain that by the time this season is fully over, it's going to become a hallmark season that wx enthusiasts refer to and talk about during future seasons. 2024's going to be a nightmare.

[jasons2k]

Beryl is ripping along. The Coriolis Effect is tugging Beryl a little poleward. Old-fashioned physics. The Texas Coast should watch very closely. Time to have your kits stocked and ready.

[tolakram]

BERYL



EMILY

[Beef Stew]

At this point, everything is on the table. A 190 mph landfall on Miami. A hurricane that beats Cyclone Freddy's total ACE. A December Category 5 hurricane. I wouldn't be surprised.

The one I'm eyeing is a sub-900 storm. I'd never bet on it, but if there ever seemed to be a year...

Or a sub-870 storm? Patricia showed that it was possible to at least approach it.

It makes me wonder what the theoretically attainable minimum pressure for a storm in the Atlantic Basin is. I'd have to guess somewhere in the 870's; either over the loop current or deep in the WCar during peak season.

[weeniepatrol]

Also it's been said already but I agree completely: Beryl just ruined everyones' early-season MDR expectations for a long time.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Uncontaminated MSLP of 934mb. Beryl's rampage continues.

[sphelps8681]

Beryl is ripping along. The Coriolis Effect is tugging Beryl a little poleward. Old-fashioned physics. The Texas Coast should watch very closely. Time to have your kits stocked and ready.

I am in SE Tx near LA Border please don't tell it might come here. Last year in June I had to replace my roof from just a random store. Say it so.

[TropicalWinds]

Worth mentioning that every season since 2015 had one storm that was or near borderline Category 5 intensity.

2015: Joaquin
2016: Matthew
2017: Irma and Maria
2018: Michael
2019: Dorian and Lorenzo
2020: Eta and Iota
2021: Sam
2022: Ian
2023: Lee

And now Beryl. One could make the argument that the Atlantic has had a Cat 5 every year since 2015 if you think the 155 mph storms were indeed a 5.This could've easily been the 8th year in a row with at least one cat 5 if Iota weren't downgraded post-season and Sam intensified a tad bit more/recon got there at the right time.

[tolakram]

Now the question is how Beryl deals with shear, or if it's big enough to modify the environment ahead of it.

[copano]

An old joke with my neighbors it has Rockport written all over it, something I always said for every gulf storm except for Harvey, we knew how that went... That said it is dependent of strength into the Yucatan, too much spread in the models now , hoping for a weak system that pushes into south MX, not that I wish it on anyone. In a couple of days I think we'll have a clear picture, however the GFS has been pretty steady.

[Hurricane Mike]

New Video on Beryl
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uQrABvISuM

[ScottNAtlanta]

Now the question is how Beryl deals with shear, or if it's big enough to modify the environment ahead of it.

https://i.imgur.com/NC5nJFJ.gif

That is the question, but I am noticing the shear zone backing away. It is not unheard of for intense storms like this to create their own environment and push shear out of the way

[Craters]

I'm on mobile atm but if you are referring to the cloud formation just to the north of 96L thats a result of air mass gradient between the more stable air associated with the SAL directly to the north and the pocket of moist air associated with 96L. It's similar to the marine stratocumulus clouds that result from the stable air mass in the north Pacific.

https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/marine-stratocumulus-clouds

Thanks, USTropics — right, I get that. My question is about the "ripples" that are moving from SE to NW through that cloud formation. I can't remember ever seeing that before on such a huge scale. When I say "ripples," well, imagine that the cumulus are patches of foam on a pond, and somebody threw a rock into the pond and it hit near the bottom right-hand corner of the frame. They're not really subtle, but they're not entirely obvious, either. I'd guess that they're hundreds of kilometers long, tilted maybe 20° (?) relative to the bottom edge of the frame, measured counterclockwise. They're moving roughly in the direction from the bottom of the frame toward the top.

[IcyTundra]

Now the question is how Beryl deals with shear, or if it's big enough to modify the environment ahead of it.

https://i.imgur.com/NC5nJFJ.gif

That is the question, but I am noticing the shear zone backing away. It is not unheard of for intense storms like this to create their own environment and push shear out of the way

Dorian's outflow pretty much destroyed a TUTT.

[Xyls]

Now the question is how Beryl deals with shear, or if it's big enough to modify the environment ahead of it.

https://i.imgur.com/NC5nJFJ.gif

That is the question, but I am noticing the shear zone backing away. It is not unheard of for intense storms like this to create their own environment and push shear out of the way

I am thinking Beryl will very possibly be one of these systems. Not only that, but I think people really shouldn't be looking more than 3 days out with the model right now for ideas on what Beryl is going to do. The models are having a REALLY hard time with this storm both intensity wise and even track wise at the moment.

I know everyone likes to compare Beryl and Emily but so far this storm actually more reminds me of Dennis which the models had a very hard time with both intensity and path in 2005 to from what I recall. I would assume more north than the models are saying. Depending on what the trough does that some models are seeing I would assume the U.S. would actually be the more likely landfall location the more intensity that Beryl manages to maintain. Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should be preparing for a major hurricane.