How many named storms will form in July?

[cycloneye]

The poll has closed for voting with option three getting the most votes. Already July looks to have a candidate that may develop and is 96L.

[Teban54]

Will Chris count as a June or July storm for this poll's purposes, given that it formed in July in UTC but June in local time?

[cycloneye]

Will Chris count as a June or July storm for this poll's purposes, given that it formed in July in UTC but June in local time?

June time so not a July formation.

[CFLHurricane]

I voted for one since even a singular named storm makes for an active July. The real season doesn’t kick off until the third week of August and this year will be no different. Heck we’ll probably even get extra “season dead” hand wringing given the heightened expectations.

In light of the historically active June, I would like to order my crow extra crispy with a side of Popeye’s biscuits. I now think we could get 3 or 4 storms under the current setup.

[AnnularCane]

The lack of activity in the first two weeks of June seemed to be enough to get the handwringing going.

[Hurricane Mike]

We could still have a slow July lull before August.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Thus far July has been a DUD... and I for one am ecstatically GLAD that it has been. I know the real "run" begins from mid August practically till October, but I LIKE it when there are NONE. I am NOT one of the cheerleaders who seem to get all excited and revel in the massive storms, with all the death and destruction they can cause. I've lived, so far, through over 30 storms from TS, to Cat 5. I've been lucky. Some friends of mine and a family member, not so much. So I am thrilled that even the NHC's latest says, "No new storms for the next 7 days." Great! If that holds, NO storms in July.
I want to soap box a little simply because it's so close to home. Let there be NO doubt. Beryl was a monster, and probably one of the worst storm in the Atlantic Basin in the month of July, but she was NOT the worst major in June, She didn't reach major until the last day of June at 130 mph, hence not the strongest storm in June. Nor was she the earliest category 4... that honor belongs to Hurricane Audrey.

OH I know that the know-it-alls from the NHC who positively were proven in error with winds they claimed were on the east of a buoy, when I have the buoy data and it was on the west, and NOT as high as claimed. FACT. the re-analysis of Audrey came more than a half century after the storm. They didn't have dropsondes till the 1960's, There were wind reports from ships and rigs in the Gulf the night Audrey came ashore with winds as high as 180 mph gusts, and close to 160 1 minute... BUT I'm not claiming she was a 5 by any stretch of the imagination, as the height of the anemometer matters. However she was definitely a Cat 4 and nothing from a bunch of folks poring over "surface observations" (one of the reasons for the change) will change that. I HAVE surface observations of entire villages wiped out, FLAT. Over 500 dead as per NWS reports on the NHC page. And while Beryl could reach an amazing 165 mph with a lowest pressure of 938 mb, but Audrey can't be a 140 mph Cat 4 with 959 mb (after landfall as her RI pressures were NOT available? Oh yes, the other criteria was a flight measure of pressure. Sorry, that's balderdash! Betsy was a bona-fide Cat 4 with a pressure, of 942 mb? Katrina made landfall with a pressure of 919mb, and we're supposed to believe it was a three! But I'll grant that with dropsondes, much improved satellite data, and even means of analysis with Dvorak and SFMR (although both have room for error), the most current data is much more accurate. But reaching back more than half a century and saying a storm wasn't a 4 when every observation, and a frightening death toll says otherwise? Please don't bring up the dead horse about "storm surge," because my response will be it takes a pretty intense storm to creat the kind of surge Audrey produced. Audrey WAS the earliest major in the Atlantic Basin... even their own records admit that. She was also the strongest in June because I'm NOT buying the drop from 140 to 125. And yeah, you can say all these mets know more than me. But not many, if ANY can say they were there to see what she did. *I* can! The NHC brings its own data into question as not a single Buoy up and down the Texas coast showed Beryl moving in with winds of more than 90 mph GUSTS! and most were 60-70... not a single "one minute sustained" over hurricane strength could be verified, from SURFACE observations.

My final say is this.. I'm NOT trying to minimize Beryl... she was horrific, and in some of those pictures, a truly awesome storm. But I WILL say they can't convince me that they know without equivocation that Audrey wasn't a 4... from data they use from "models" and what THEY call surface observations. Audrey was a 4, the earliest major, and the earliest 4.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/photos/worst-hurricanes-us-history-42629303















'

[Hurricane2022]

In this case the earliest atlantic MH was Alma 66, per HURDAT reanalysis
Beryl was only the earliest MH ever recorded for the MDR, not for the entire NATL basin

[Audrey2Katrina]

No arguments on Alma. I do remember her, even though as a Florida storm, and I was in HS at the time, I didn't pay a lot of attention since we were still reeling from Betsy the previous year. Alma's lowest pressure being 970 is probably among the highest for a MH, but it isn't out of the realm of possibilities. Some will claim that she also was the first MH to hit the US, although even Key West didn't record any winds of MH level. In fact Key West, where it was allegedly a Cat 3 the top winds were gusts of 70 mph. None of this precludes that other areas didn't record some much higher. I know that Dry Tortugas certainly did. The comparison of Alma to Audrey, however, is not even in the same ballpark, and yet, I certainly wouldn't trivialize Alma either. She killed 90 people and did over $200 million in damages (1966 $) and that alone makes her a monster. I agree on Alma completely.