ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Teban54]

Remember also, there's a lot we don't know in the history books. Before the satellite era, there were likely a lot more storms that completely escaped the test of time.

While the statement is probably true in general, in this specific instance Beryl is already hitting the maximum potential intensity (which is borderline Cat 4/5 ish), and the MPI was already boosted by the well above-average SSTs that are in part due to climate change. I find it hard to believe another storm in the past (with much cooler SSTs) would do exactly this, and if there were, they were probably from millions of years ago with a fundamentally different climate.

[AtlanticWind]

Beryl’s earlier buzz saw appearance is transitioning to more of a squashed avocado now. I doubt it will hold this intensity for more than a few more hours unless shear abates again, but that doesn’t seem likely.

There is no shear over Beryl at the present time

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/NbergWX/status/1807945475342917769

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm surprised that the Cat 5 record isn't on the weather dot com website as a headline. I figured the weather channel would be all over this.

[cheezyWXguy]

Beryl’s earlier buzz saw appearance is transitioning to more of a squashed avocado now. I doubt it will hold this intensity for more than a few more hours unless shear abates again, but that doesn’t seem likely.

There is no shear over Beryl at the present time

There is and has been, but it hasn’t been strong enough to keep Beryl at bay. Microwave pass earlier this afternoon showed a weakened southwest eyewall and banding has been restricted to the SW since early afternoon. Even in spite of this, Beryl has continued to strengthen, but this likely will not continue for a lot longer. If this is still a 5 by 8am eastern I will be genuinely surprised.

[galaxy401]

Last pass also had multiple locations supporting cat 5 intensity, with cat 4+ winds in all quads.

Based on earlier data and trends, 145 kt seems like a good intensity estimate.

Looks like they heard you. Now it's 145 kts and 935 mb.

[zzzh]

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 65.8W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

145kt.

[CrazyC83]

Now the question: has it maxed out, or is there room to go even higher?

Officially the strongest pre-August storm now, beating Emily (140 kt).

[quixoft]

I know that only weather enthusiasts like ourselves on this board and those in the profession can appreciate and respect such a record being broken. , most of the rest of the world could care less. I told my girlfriend about it and she was like, "So"? lol.
Oh well, some people just don't get it.

We do get it. I've been lurking on this board for a very long time(although I guess i only registered in 2020) and am fascinated by tropical storms and hurricanes as well as the winter weather posts on this board. My wife follows as well.

We aren't weather experts and i have to Google most of what i encounter here to understand it but after all these years I probably have a better grasp of things than the average joe but not enough knowledge to actually contribute so I just lurk!

I'm a software engineer and my wife is a nurse but weather systems fascinate ius both so we still pay attention and understand when things are record breaking despite not fully understanding the how and why.

[zhukm29]

A storm for the history books. It's only July and we already have a 165 mph system

The fact that 2005 was recently added as an analog in expect forecasts is not a good omen, especially given how much warmer the waters are. We could be looking at a historical season ahead if this is what we get on July 1st...

[MarioProtVI]

Beryl continues to amaze me. 145 kt and to think it was likely a Cat 5 as early as 18z today…

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hurricane Beryl might be making a run at 150 knots. wow!

[zzzh]

Beryl is now the strongest hurricane in June AND July.

[Hammy]

A bit off topic, but this should erase the doubt around Edith's 160mph intensity in 1971, I've seen it questioned in various places given the 941 mb pressure but it was another very small hurricane (a tad smaller even than Beryl)

[Teban54]

A storm for the history books. It's only July and we already have a 165 mph system

The fact that 2005 was recently added as an analog in expect forecasts is not a good omen, especially given how much warmer the waters are. We could be looking at a historical season ahead if this is what we get on July 1st...

https://i.ibb.co/k5Ltxts/149c949e-c38f-44f5-b953-c423947dfcca.jpg

Yeah, I think any agencies that didn't have 2005 as an analog year before would add them now.

[AtlanticWind]

Beryl’s earlier buzz saw appearance is transitioning to more of a squashed avocado now. I doubt it will hold this intensity for more than a few more hours unless shear abates again, but that doesn’t seem likely.

There is no shear over Beryl at the present time

There is and has been, but it hasn’t been strong enough to keep Beryl at bay. Microwave pass earlier this afternoon showed a weakened southwest eyewall and banding has been restricted to the SW since early afternoon. Even in spite of this, Beryl has continued to strengthen, but this likely will not continue for a lot longer. If this is still a 5 by 8am eastern I will be genuinely surprised.

Adjusted shear on ships is 0
I don’t think a Cat 5 can exist with significant shear over the CDO

[MississippiWx]

Lol Beryl looks even better. It’s expanding in all quadrants again, fighting off shear. I believe it’s going to take an eye wall replacement cycle for the shear to begin having a more significant impact. Right now, Beryl is laughing.

[chaser1]

I know that only weather enthusiasts like ourselves on this board and those in the profession can appreciate and respect such a record being broken. , most of the rest of the world could care less. I told my girlfriend about it and she was like, "So"? lol.
Oh well, some people just don't get it.

We do get it. I've been lurking on this board for a very long time(although I guess i only registered in 2020) and am fascinated by tropical storms and hurricanes as well as the winter weather posts on this board. My wife follows as well.

We aren't weather experts and i have to Google most of what i encounter here to understand it but after all these years I probably have a better grasp of things than the average joe but not enough knowledge to actually contribute so I just lurk!

I'm a software engineer and my wife is a nurse but weather systems fascinate ius both so we still pay attention and understand when things are record breaking despite not fully understanding the how and why.

There will always be those who enjoy avocados, and those who simply don't. Welcome to our little tree farm

[AxaltaRacing24]

This storm looks really good right now.

[zhukm29]

Pretty rapid recovery with the northwest side filling in recently... shear should be coming in so we'll see how Beryl fares.