ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

I expect 940 mb to be at or near the surface. At-sea conversion for gusts is 1.11 so 167 kt supports an intensity of 150 kt. Combine that with the 165 kt SFMR and 161 kt FL (141 kt with the conversion factor for FL) we get a blend to 155 kt.

[Charleswachal]

135 knts on the southern eyewall from the dropsonde. Not often do you see multiple cat 5 readings.

[Charleswachal]

I expect 940 mb to be at or near the surface. At-sea conversion for gusts is 1.11 so 167 kt supports an intensity of 150 kt. Combine that with the 165 kt SFMR and 161 kt FL (141 kt with the conversion factor for FL) we get a blend to 155 kt.

This is just absolutely insane of a storm to have 155 knt winds or more in July!

[zzzh]

S eyewall had 949mb at surface. Given the stronger wind on north side, there should be a tighter pressure gradient on the north eyewall, so the N eyewall probably has a pressure > 949mb.

[jlauderdal]

https://i.imgur.com/55B119c.gif

no stair stepping in that loop, moving in a straight line like a buzzsaw.

[LARanger]

I find it hard to believe another storm in the past (with much cooler SSTs) would do exactly this, and if there were, they were probably from millions of years ago with a fundamentally different climate.

Folks were just talking about the St. Lucia Hurricane of mid-June 1780, which occurred during the "Little Ice Age". The African Humid Period's comparative lack of dust has also been simulated as having devastating effect on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, and that during a time when mean temperature was still coming back from the not so little Ice Age.

The moral of the story is twofold. One is that the conclusion of modern tropical madness as outlier is a hypothesis only. The second, as corollary, is that our records are much too short and fragmentary. Unless a Beryl of the 1491 hurricane season were to strike land and leave specific deforestation traces for us to find, or hit people and leave us a thread weaving through a sad history, she wouldn't appear in our books at all. Imagine what other marvels could be hiding in the mists of history.

[aspen]

I expect 940 mb to be at or near the surface. At-sea conversion for gusts is 1.11 so 167 kt supports an intensity of 150 kt. Combine that with the 165 kt SFMR and 161 kt FL (141 kt with the conversion factor for FL) we get a blend to 155 kt.

I think the NHC may err on the side of caution and go with a lower blend of 150 kt. This reminds me of Felix, which IIRC also had 160+ kt SFMR readings and they went with 150 kt instead. Also had a fairly high pressure for a system that intense.

[Hurricane2022]

Oh f***.

[NDG]

Just waking up, my jaw dropped to the ground looking at that recon pass.
And some people last night that it had already peaked.
Beryl just keeps up amazing us.

[kevin]

Looks like recon is going for an east to west to pass (instead of SE to NW) in an attempt to sample the strongest winds again.

[zzzh]

AF plane is heading toward NE quad, we'll see the true intensity in 30min

[kevin]

This is a once-in-a-lifetime event in terms of location/time period/intensity. For the people who are awake, enjoy the weather enthusiast aspect of these recon passes, we won't see anything like this again.

[Charleswachal]

PR getting slammed by tropical rainbands and then you can also see the eye on radar out of PR

[jlauderdal]

https://i.imgur.com/9HTbzB4.png

PR getting slammed by tropical rainbands and then you can also see the eye on radar out of PR

We have our man on the ground in PR-Cycloneye, hopefully he is doing ok, heavy rain in PR is a big problem.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Well, there’s no doubt that it is well into Cat 5 territory now! I’m glad it didn’t peak yesterday.

[USTropics]

Just waking up, my jaw dropped to the ground looking at that recon pass.
And some people last night that it had already peaked.
Beryl just keeps up amazing us.

I honestly thought it had peaked last night, running out of adjectives to describe this experience. I thought 2005 was a once-in-a-lifetime event for July, but here we are, staring down the Beryl...

[DirtyDish]

I usually just read the forums and watch from afar but I really do hope that the first hurricane of 2024 is the strongest one. Everything I thought could be in an early season storm has been erased.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Category 5 Hurricane Beryl.

I'd go with 150 knots for 8am based on recon data.

[NDG]

Based on AF recon looks like Beryl is starting an EWR if not now fairly soon.

[kassi]

https://i.imgur.com/9HTbzB4.png

PR getting slammed by tropical rainbands and then you can also see the eye on radar out of PR

We have our man on the ground in PR-Cycloneye, hopefully he is doing ok, heavy rain in PR is a big problem.

He posted Beryl's advisory at 4:29am cdt so that's a good sign.