ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormlover70]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-1eccM_C-NpzvLVVqcI7HIVpHjO9vfoo/view?usp=drives It had an evil face last night at 150 mph. Saying cat 5 here I come!

[Teban54]

NHC's 11am EDT advisory acknowledged that the peak was around 10-12z, a bit before the 12z (8am EDT) update, but they didn't discuss the exact intensity. Any official upgrade to 150 kt will have to be in the TCR.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
along with satellite imagery, suggest that Beryl peaked in
intensity around 10-12Z. Since then, the aircraft data show
that the central pressure has slowly risen to near 938 mb and that
the maximum flight-level winds have decreased a little. In addition,
satellite imagery indicates some decay in the cloud pattern. Based
on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is set at 140 kt.

[kevin]

Last two passes support a pressure of 936 - 938 mb, so it seems to be slowly weakening. Winds still at cat 5 level though.

[AerospaceEng]

NHC with another pretty big shift North. Tough forecast. Belize is essentially out of the cone.

[SconnieCane]

This upcoming scenario with Beryl reminds me a bit of what happened with Hurricane Florence in 2018. It unexpectedly bombed out into a Cat. 4, then ran into some strong shear and became almost completely decoupled. Then it entered another patch of favorable conditions and almost immediately began wrapping back up and bombed out to even stronger than before. We sometimes underestimate how quickly these cyclones can respond to changes in atmospheric conditions, in both directions.

[kevin]

If Beryl's cat 5 period is indeed pushed back to 2100 UTC yesterday and falls below cat 5 status at the next advisory at 2100 UTC today it would have been a cat 5 for 24 hours, a feat only achieved by 16 storms since records started and the longest cat 5 duration since Dorian. Unlike Ian, Lee, Lorenzo, Michael (and the many 135 kt systems of the last few years), Beryl was at its peak for a long period of time instead of just a few hours.

[aspen]

NHC's 11am EDT advisory acknowledged that the peak was around 10-12z, a bit before the 12z (8am EDT) update, but they didn't discuss the exact intensity. Any official upgrade to 150 kt will have to be in the TCR.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
along with satellite imagery, suggest that Beryl peaked in
intensity around 10-12Z. Since then, the aircraft data show
that the central pressure has slowly risen to near 938 mb and that
the maximum flight-level winds have decreased a little. In addition,
satellite imagery indicates some decay in the cloud pattern. Based
on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is set at 140 kt.

Frustrating. The data’s there, why not make an estimate now instead of waiting 10 months if they’re gonna mention when it peaked? Maybe they’re too suspect of the 160+ kt SFMR and dropsonde readings and want to them a long, through analysis to verify their accuracy?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

NHC basically calling for a 120-125 mph Cat 3 landfall in Jamaica. Can't recall when the last time a major hurricane directly hit Jamaica, although I know Ivan did a lot of damage in 2004.

[Hurrilurker]

Southern Texas could be in for at least a big rain event after all.

[MarioProtVI]

NHC basically calling for a 120-125 mph Cat 3 landfall in Jamaica. Can't recall when the last time a major hurricane directly hit Jamaica, although I know Ivan did a lot of damage in 2004.

Gilbert in ‘88.

[USTropics]

NHC basically calling for a 120-125 mph Cat 3 landfall in Jamaica. Can't recall when the last time a major hurricane directly hit Jamaica, although I know Ivan did a lot of damage in 2004.

Here are all major hurricane storm tracks going back to 1850 that have either directly impacted Jamaica or came within ~50 miles of the island. The last direct landfalling major hurricane was Gilbert in 1988:

[vbhoutex]

NHC basically calling for a 120-125 mph Cat 3 landfall in Jamaica. Can't recall when the last time a major hurricane directly hit Jamaica, although I know Ivan did a lot of damage in 2004.

Gilbert in ‘88.

That is what came to mind immediately for me!

[Teban54]

Looks like the outer eyewall is showing up:

[LarryWx]

The NHC is forecasting for Jamaica as much as 5-8 feet surge “in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast”. That was raised from 4-6 ft in the prior advisory. They are forecasting highest winds of 140 mph while approaching from ESE of Jamaica and then weakening to 120 mph when it is nearest to W Jamaica. So, it is saying solid cat 3 hit on Jamaica.

These 6 MH since 1903 had analogous WNW tracks on approach to Jamaica and thus should give a good hint of what will likely occur since these moved either just S of or right over Jamaica:

1) MHs that moved WNW just S of Jamaica:

Dean (2007)

Ivan (2004)



2) MHs that moved WNW right over Jamaica:

Gilbert (1988)

Charlie (1951)

Storm #4 (1944)

Storm #2 (1903)

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Salute from the Panhandle, aka Baja Alabama!

What's the feeling of those here with actual meteorology jobs/degees and long time victims/witnesses?

My theory has always been that early and especially strong storms reduce the energy content of the ocean or gulf by transfering that heat up into the stratosphere and or reducing the water temperature. For example, this very strong, well-developed thing should mitigate the new invest behind it, huh?

Of course El Nino conditions seem to reduce the number of storms and especially "major" ones, but we have seen that when having very high ocean temperatures and so-called climate change. But what's the feeling here aongst we storm folks.

Gums sends...

This is what I was thinking too!

Isn't Beryl having an effect on the ocean 96L is finding itself churning through?

Isn't there some "upwelling" that has cooled the ocean somewhat from Beryl's wake?

I’m under the impression that hurricanes mainly cool the ocean by mixing the warm surface water with the cool deeper water. I don’t think even they take enough heat to reduce the temperature noticeably just through the heat they extract.

But my expertise is black holes not hurricanes so you should probably still look this up.

[underthwx]

NHC basically calling for a 120-125 mph Cat 3 landfall in Jamaica. Can't recall when the last time a major hurricane directly hit Jamaica, although I know Ivan did a lot of damage in 2004.

Gilbert in ‘88.

That is what came to mind immediately for me!

Yes....me too...

[MGC]

Beryl's slow decay has started. Looks like a moat it starting to form around the hurricane. Another EWC commencing? Jamaica is clearly in Beryl's crosshairs......MGC

[Teban54]

NHC basically calling for a 120-125 mph Cat 3 landfall in Jamaica. Can't recall when the last time a major hurricane directly hit Jamaica, although I know Ivan did a lot of damage in 2004.

Here are all major hurricane storm tracks going back to 1850 that have either directly impacted Jamaica or came within ~50 miles of the island. The last direct landfalling major hurricane was Gilbert in 1988:
https://i.imgur.com/qiSICWy.png

I recall some people saying strong TCs often have a tendency to "bounce off" Jamaica and other land masses unexpectedly. Ivan was typically the justification given: it was initially forecast to landfall directly on Jamaica, but eventually skirted to the SW (albeit still causing heavy damages to the island).

I've always wondered whether such claims have any truth behind them, or if it was simply a manifest of poorer forecast skills in 2004 compared to now. What do we think are the chances that this happens again with Beryl?

[LarryWx]

NHC basically calling for a 120-125 mph Cat 3 landfall in Jamaica. Can't recall when the last time a major hurricane directly hit Jamaica, although I know Ivan did a lot of damage in 2004.

Here are all major hurricane storm tracks going back to 1850 that have either directly impacted Jamaica or came within ~50 miles of the island. The last direct landfalling major hurricane was Gilbert in 1988:
https://i.imgur.com/qiSICWy.png

I recall some people saying strong TCs often have a tendency to "bounce off" Jamaica and other land masses unexpectedly. Ivan was typically the justification given: it was initially forecast to landfall directly on Jamaica, but eventually skirted to the SW (albeit still causing heavy damages to the island).

I've always wondered whether such claims have any truth behind them, or if it was simply a manifest of poorer forecast skills in 2004 compared to now. What do we think are the chances that this happens again with Beryl?

Looking at MHs approaching Jamaica from the ESE, I’d say there’s no bouncing off tendency. Ivan of 2004’s track makes it appear that way but it may have been due to a new steering current happening to cause a change in heading from WNW to W right at Jamaica (a new high?). Anyone know? If not, I’d have to research that further. Dean of 2007 was already heading just S. So, that didn’t bounce off. Gilbert (1988), Charlie (1951), Storm #4 of 1944, and Storm #2 of 1903 didn’t bounce at all as they went straight across the island with no appreciable heading change.

So, at most, only one of six MAY have “bounced”, but even saying it changed heading due to Jamaica is highly questionable imo pending further analysis.

[Tireman4]

From Matt Lanza...

Hurricane Beryl (160 mph, WNW 22 mph)
Hurricane Beryl somehow managed to continue strengthening last night and achieved category 5 status late in the evening over the eastern Caribbean. It has maintained that status today and has 160 mph maximum sustained winds as it races west northwest across the Caribbean.


The forecast from the National Hurricane Center as of 11 AM AST shows Beryl closing in on Jamaica as a major hurricane tomorrow.
Over the next 36 hours, Beryl will remain on a course that should bring it very, very close to a direct hit on Jamaica. At the least, it will be a close pass, and hurricane conditions are expected there beginning late tonight or tomorrow morning. Preparations for a major hurricane impact should be rushed to completion in Jamaica. Folks in the Cayman Islands will need to watch Beryl closely as well as it passes near or just south of there tomorrow night.

On satellite, Beryl looked great this morning, and while it still looks great, there are at least some signs that shear is beginning to impact Beryl a bit on the west side.


Hurricane Beryl looks the part on satellite this morning as it races west northwest. Some signs of wind shear are evident on the western side of Beryl, which should hopefully indicate Beryl has peaked. (Weathernerds.org)
You can see a more ragged appearance to the eye and eyewall, and even what looks to be a little dry air just outside the core in the western semicircle of Beryl. Whatever the case, the thought is that Beryl's intensity has peaked, and it should now begin to undergo a steady decline. Beryl is about to plow into 20 or more knots of wind shear.


Beryl is about to encounter 20 kts or more of wind shear as it approaches Jamaica.
Wind shear is complicated with storms of this intensity. Theoretically, it should just start to feel the shear and begin a steady, if not rapid weakening. Modeling says this will be the case. The majority of modeling weakens Beryl to a category 2 or weaker storm by Thursday morning. But in storms of this intensity, shear can be a little funky and find ways to help the storm "ventilate" somewhat. In my opinion, this is not going to be the case with Beryl; it should weaken as forecast, perhaps at a slower rate than what models suggest. However, there is inherent uncertainty here, and that's why we would tell folks in Jamaica to prepare for a serious, major hurricane.

In addition to the wind and surge impacts of a major hurricane, flooding from rainfall is a possibility, if not likelihood as Beryl passes southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.


Beryl is expected to drop as much as 200 to 300 mm (8-12 inches) of rainfall along and just north of its track.
According to Sam Lillo of DTN weather, who has been posting frequent statistical nuggets on Twitter/X regarding Beryl's unprecedented nature about Beryl's forward speed. Over a 6 hour period, Beryl is the fastest known moving category 5 storm on record. As noted by him and some others, Hurricane Allen in 1980 and Janet in 1955 also had some extreme forward speeds for category 5 storms. Either way, Beryl will end up atop or near the top of many charts once all is said and done for earliest and easternmost and fastest for storms of this intensity.

What comes after Jamaica for Beryl?

The main near term concern is for the folks in Jamaica and the Caymans. Beyond that, the forecast is contingent on a number of factors. Over the last 48 hours, we've seen a slight northward shift in Beryl's forecast track as it comes west.


Beryl's forecast track via the ensemble mean of all models has trended a bit to the north in the last couple days, not by a ton but by enough to be notable.
This has implications for the Yucatan and perhaps the Gulf as well. Why is Beryl trending more north? For one, exploding into a category 5 storm allows it to gain some added latitude. But secondly, the U.S. pattern has changed somewhat. If you look at how the European ensemble's 6 to 10 day forecast has changed in the last 48 hours, the tendency has been for the trough over the Central U.S. to strengthen, thus weakening the ridge of high pressure in the South.


Over the last 2 days, the European ensemble model has weakened the southern ridge and strengthened the Central trough, which has allowed Beryl's risk of coming farther north to increase.
But there's a lot of nuance to this. For one, if Beryl does weaken as expected, this would have only a modest impact on the final track, keeping it south across the Yucatan and into Mexico. If Beryl does stay stronger than forecast or somehow intensifies as it comes west into the Gulf, it would be more apt to "feel" the stronger trough and come north. You can see this on the Euro ensemble where stronger outcomes are mostly skewed north and weaker outcomes are mostly skewed south.


There is a bit of a bimodal dispersion of Euro outcomes, with stronger ones mostly northward and weaker ones mostly southward.
There's a reason we have been apt to not speculate on what would happen to Beryl as it came west, rather trying to focus on what would impact Beryl. These changes offer a wrinkle. Should you worry on the Texas or Louisiana coasts? No, but you'll want to keep an eye on this. For one, there seems to be a fair bit of support for somewhat hostile upper air conditions in the Gulf when Beryl arrives, so there's no guarantee this will just explode when it gets there.

That said, we're operating in a very odd world right now. Gulf of Mexico water temps have drifted under record levels thankfully, but it's still warmer than normal overall. So I don't want to overpromise anything at this point. The best we can tell people to do is continue watching. If Beryl makes it to the northern Mexico, Texas, or Louisiana coasts, the impacts would probably begin late Saturday night or Sunday.

One other quick word: A lot of people will be traveling this weekend to beaches and such. Rip current risk in the Gulf is going to increase later in the weekend as some of the swells from Beryl reach the coast.


Rip currents will become an issue on most of the Gulf Coast by later in the holiday weekend.
Please use caution if you'll be on the beach this weekend. Even the best and most experienced swimmers can struggle with rip currents, so it's advised to swim near a lifeguard and follow any warnings or caution notices.