Moderator: S2k Moderators
Stratton23 wrote:Current pressure of the hurricane is around 931-933 mb
New Euro run initializez it at 985 mb, wow the globals are doing absolutely awful right now with intensity
LARanger wrote:Stratton23 wrote:Current pressure of the hurricane is around 931-933 mb
New Euro run initializez it at 985 mb, wow the globals are doing absolutely awful right now with intensity
As others have noted, for lower resolution models there are trade-offs to allow the model to do its thing, not to mention the trade-offs of a global model versus a dedicated hurricane model. I'd wager the folks running it know what they're doing and are making it as accurate for all needs as possible.
tolakram wrote:LARanger wrote:Stratton23 wrote:Current pressure of the hurricane is around 931-933 mb
New Euro run initializez it at 985 mb, wow the globals are doing absolutely awful right now with intensity
As others have noted, for lower resolution models there are trade-offs to allow the model to do its thing, not to mention the trade-offs of a global model versus a dedicated hurricane model. I'd wager the folks running it know what they're doing and are making it as accurate for all needs as possible.
I've seen all globals initialize lower than this. Beryl is not an unusually small storm so hopefully we get a review of why this is happening.
What a strange run, it initializes way too high at 992mb, strengthens in the next 24 hours until weakening upon Jamaica and then regains steam in the Gulf. I'd throw that run in the trash just because the first 24 hours of it make no sense. Maybe something can be gleaned from the track despite the off intensity. It's still sticking with the Northern track.lsuhurricane wrote:12z ICON landfalls at the TX/LA border at 960mb
La Breeze wrote:sphelps8681 wrote:IcyTundra wrote:0Z TVCN is a bit further north. We should see a slight northern shift from the NHC at the 10PM update.
I am in SE Tx near LA border. When will we have a better idea of what is going on.
I'm just across the border in SW LA and I have the same question -
BIFF_THE_UNRULY wrote:La Breeze wrote:sphelps8681 wrote:
I am in SE Tx near LA border. When will we have a better idea of what is going on.
I'm just across the border in SW LA and I have the same question -
Hard to tell. for sure after it passes Jamaica. Its along ways away yet.
I would top off preps and check your emergency stuff for the season anyway.
ROCK wrote:06Z Navy into mid TX coast after doing a loop in the GOM...lol....last run was more into TX/LA border...
Cpv17 wrote:BIFF_THE_UNRULY wrote:La Breeze wrote:I'm just across the border in SW LA and I have the same question -
Hard to tell. for sure after it passes Jamaica. Its along ways away yet.
I would top off preps and check your emergency stuff for the season anyway.
After this clears Jamaica we should have a better idea of where it’s going.
jabman98 wrote:ROCK wrote:06Z Navy into mid TX coast after doing a loop in the GOM...lol....last run was more into TX/LA border...
A loop in the GOM? That would certainly make things interesting. lol
txag2005 wrote:12z GFS with landfall in South Texas near the US/MX border.
tolakram wrote:LARanger wrote:Stratton23 wrote:Current pressure of the hurricane is around 931-933 mb
New Euro run initializez it at 985 mb, wow the globals are doing absolutely awful right now with intensity
As others have noted, for lower resolution models there are trade-offs to allow the model to do its thing, not to mention the trade-offs of a global model versus a dedicated hurricane model. I'd wager the folks running it know what they're doing and are making it as accurate for all needs as possible.
I've seen all globals initialize lower than this. Beryl is not an unusually small storm so hopefully we get a review of why this is happening.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 29 guests
