ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LearnedHat]

Southern Texas could be in for at least a big rain event after all.

I know we would have to be weary of flash flooding and erosion damage but I hope some remnants can make it to the Hill Country. I would have to reach northward from a NE Mexico / S. Padre landfall about 300 miles for that to happen though. Don't need it to stall out - just pass over slowly (you know - as long as I am wishing).

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Salute from the Panhandle, aka Baja Alabama!

What's the feeling of those here with actual meteorology jobs/degees and long time victims/witnesses?

My theory has always been that early and especially strong storms reduce the energy content of the ocean or gulf by transfering that heat up into the stratosphere and or reducing the water temperature. For example, this very strong, well-developed thing should mitigate the new invest behind it, huh?

Of course El Nino conditions seem to reduce the number of storms and especially "major" ones, but we have seen that when having very high ocean temperatures and so-called climate change. But what's the feeling here aongst we storm folks.

Gums sends...

This is what I was thinking too!

Isn't Beryl having an effect on the ocean 96L is finding itself churning through?

Isn't there some "upwelling" that has cooled the ocean somewhat from Beryl's wake?

I’m under the impression that hurricanes mainly cool the ocean by mixing the warm surface water with the cool deeper water. I don’t think even they take enough heat to reduce the temperature noticeably just through the heat they extract.

But my expertise is black holes not hurricanes so you should probably still look this up.

I dont think the Caribbean is all that deep to have that effect, that would be true in the atlantic or pacific. Its just dang hot out and anything brought up from the depths will just warm up as quickly. If anything Beryl is plowing the road for the next one to be even worse.

But i am no Scientician. maybe there is an effect.

[LarryWx]

Salute from the Panhandle, aka Baja Alabama!

What's the feeling of those here with actual meteorology jobs/degees and long time victims/witnesses?

My theory has always been that early and especially strong storms reduce the energy content of the ocean or gulf by transfering that heat up into the stratosphere and or reducing the water temperature. For example, this very strong, well-developed thing should mitigate the new invest behind it, huh?

Of course El Nino conditions seem to reduce the number of storms and especially "major" ones, but we have seen that when having very high ocean temperatures and so-called climate change. But what's the feeling here aongst we storm folks.

Gums sends...

This is what I was thinking too!

Isn't Beryl having an effect on the ocean 96L is finding itself churning through?

Isn't there some "upwelling" that has cooled the ocean somewhat from Beryl's wake?

I’m under the impression that hurricanes mainly cool the ocean by mixing the warm surface water with the cool deeper water. I don’t think even they take enough heat to reduce the temperature noticeably just through the heat they extract.

But my expertise is black holes not hurricanes so you should probably still look this up.

I see it as a combination of heat being extracted from the warm waters to energize the storm and upwelling. Overall, TCs’ function is to bring up warmth from the tropics to further N to reduce the imbalance. If you look at SSTs shortly after strong storms traversing the open ocean, there almost always is a noticeable cool wake left behind within a couple of hundred miles of a storm center track. These cool wakes typically start to diminish and blend in with the surrounding waters within a couple of weeks.

[underthwx]

Beryl's eye is visible (though just barely) on Puerto Rico radar and Curacao radar, as per Brian McNoldy's radar loops page. The first two links are auto-updated with the latest imagery. Here are the loops as of writing:
https://i.postimg.cc/c42xTny5/Beryl-2-Jul24-TJUA.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/bwnz5wqY/Beryl-2-Jul24-Curacao.gif

sup Teban?....thats an epic radar of Beryl....its cruising along at a fast pace...ig its the silver lining if there is one at all with the cyclone....at least it's moving quickly....hopefully a good thing...

[LearnedHat]

This is what I was thinking too!

Isn't Beryl having an effect on the ocean 96L is finding itself churning through?

Isn't there some "upwelling" that has cooled the ocean somewhat from Beryl's wake?

I’m under the impression that hurricanes mainly cool the ocean by mixing the warm surface water with the cool deeper water. I don’t think even they take enough heat to reduce the temperature noticeably just through the heat they extract.

But my expertise is black holes not hurricanes so you should probably still look this up.

I dont think the Caribbean is all that deep to have that effect, that would be true in the atlantic or pacific. Its just dang hot out and anything brought up from the depths will just warm up as quickly. If anything Beryl is plowing the road for the next one to be even worse.

But i am no Scientician. maybe there is an effect.

It's pretty deep --- I assume that ocean water temperature is used (along with existing wind and solar energy) by these systems and would think that more "stirring" would cool them off some if a very active season was compared to an inactive season ---- but I certainly haven't researched it like I have land based temperature records of Texas during the 20th century.

[Jonny]

Is Beryl more likely to go through all of Jamaica vs the more southern portion?

What are the chances of her barely touching the Yucatán before entering the GOM?

[Kazmit]

This is what I was thinking too!

Isn't Beryl having an effect on the ocean 96L is finding itself churning through?

Isn't there some "upwelling" that has cooled the ocean somewhat from Beryl's wake?

I’m under the impression that hurricanes mainly cool the ocean by mixing the warm surface water with the cool deeper water. I don’t think even they take enough heat to reduce the temperature noticeably just through the heat they extract.

But my expertise is black holes not hurricanes so you should probably still look this up.

I see it as a combination of heat being extracted from the warm waters to energize the storm and upwelling. Overall, TCs’ function is to bring up warmth from the tropics to further N to reduce the imbalance. If you look at SSTs shortly after strong storms traversing the open ocean, there almost always is a noticeable cool wake left behind within a couple of hundred miles of a storm center track. These cool wakes typically start to diminish and blend in with the surrounding waters within a couple of weeks.

And with SSTs still warming up, Beryl's wake will be diminished at a faster rate than a peak-season equivalent storm.

[weatherdude1108]

I haven't seen any discussion on the news about how the Saharan dust plume may effect/potentially effect Beryl's intensity. I might have missed something. A lot of dry air with those plumes.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I haven't seen any discussion on the news about how the Saharan dust plume may effect/potentially effect Beryl's intensity. I might have missed something. A lot of dry air with those plumes.

I mean, it wasn't enough to stop it from becoming a Category 5 when it was surrounded by SAL in the MDR...

[Michele B]

NHC with another pretty big shift North. Tough forecast. Belize is essentially out of the cone.

Oh, happy for them!

[ChrisH-UK]

Source GEOS-16 Red and Cloud Particle Blend - https://col.st/66jph

[HurricaneBrain]

Ring closed off again in latest frame...

[Charleswachal]

So is this the weakening everybody has been talking about? Or is this just another eyewall replacement cycle?

[Michele B]

I haven't seen any discussion on the news about how the Saharan dust plume may effect/potentially effect Beryl's intensity. I might have missed something. A lot of dry air with those plumes.

Yeah, I was surprised at her phenomenal growth/strength with the Saharan dust being in the air.

Seems to have had NO impact on her.

[Michele B]

Ring closed off again in latest frame...
https://i.ibb.co/gWGXSs9/download.png

Western side seems to be "flattening" out.

Is this the shear they say will impact her?

[Kazmit]

Anyone know of a record for maximum forward speed of a cat 5? I wonder if Beryl has that too.

[Sciencerocks]

[Blinhart]

Just checked the Weather Channel forecast for here in Crowley, La., they haven't changed the forecast yet for us, still only around 58% chance of rain in a week with light wind, I would of expected them to up the rain chance some since it looks like we will be getting at least tropical rain showers in a week or so.

[Charleswachal]

Recon is still showing 135 knots surface winds. And pressure still looks to be maybe 1 mb high higher

[jasons2k]

An observation in Hi-Res satellite loops (sorry for the low-res version below):

The convection out ahead of the storm, in front of the eyewall and CDO, is not getting sheared. I have circled the blowup convection that’s not getting sheared apart. Also, the NW eyewall appears to have beefed-up in the last several images.

This tells me Beryl still has a ways to go before seeing significant shear impacts.

Zooming further out, the bands out to the west and northwest are getting sheared apart but time will tell how much Beryl catches up to it.