ATL: BERYL - Models

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: useful for track (not for strength):
Compared to 12Z: 1) a touch S of 0Z run at Jamaica
2) 75 miles further S at Yucatan but still N of Belize border
3) much further S back to near Tampico like yesterdays runs vs today’s 0Z into TX

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.07.2024

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 67.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.07.2024 0 15.0N 67.6W 951 110
0000UTC 03.07.2024 12 16.1N 71.7W 979 81
1200UTC 03.07.2024 24 16.9N 75.4W 990 63
0000UTC 04.07.2024 36 17.8N 79.0W 995 54
1200UTC 04.07.2024 48 18.4N 82.8W 999 45
0000UTC 05.07.2024 60 18.6N 86.2W 999 43
1200UTC 05.07.2024 72 19.3N 88.5W 1003 33
0000UTC 06.07.2024 84 19.8N 91.7W 1001 36
1200UTC 06.07.2024 96 20.5N 93.8W 1003 35
0000UTC 07.07.2024 108 21.3N 95.4W 1000 40
1200UTC 07.07.2024 120 22.2N 96.8W 999 39
0000UTC 08.07.2024 132 23.4N 98.2W 1000 38
1200UTC 08.07.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

[xironman]

12z ICON landfalls at the TX/LA border at 960mb

What a strange run, it initializes way too high at 992mb, strengthens in the next 24 hours until weakening upon Jamaica and then regains steam in the Gulf. I'd throw that run in the trash just because the first 24 hours of it make no sense. Maybe something can be gleaned from the track despite the off intensity. It's still sticking with the Northern track.

If the track verified the strength would to. Looks to be a upper high in the central gulf at that time.

[Tailgater33]

Did any of the models correctly predict the storm this morning 48 to 72hrs out. Location and strength?

[AerospaceEng]

12z Hurricane Models are running.

So far, HAFS-A & -B are both forecasting resumed deepening to 930 / 931 mb tonight, so hopefully that doesn’t verify.

[kassi]

Did any of the models correctly predict the storm this morning 48 to 72hrs out. Location and strength?

Good question. I hope someone has the answer. I feel like there should be more of a concensus among the models by now. I know most say somewhere near the Texas / Mexico border, but there are enough that go elsewhere that make some people uncomfortable.

[lsuhurricane]

[IcyTundra]

https://i.ibb.co/9grmdMk/GEFS-Global-Cyclones-Gulf-of-Mexico-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-2.gif

Majority of members begin turning north in the gulf interesting.

[tolakram]

So far the HWRF seems to be holding intensity even though shear is showing up in the IR simulation.

[IcyTundra]

https://i.ibb.co/6N8ySwX/hwrf-mslp-wind-02-L-11.png

12Z HWRF is stronger and looks like Jamaica is going to take a direct hit on this run.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z HWRF is really bad for Jamaica; high-end Category 4 impact.

[Charleswachal]

12z HWRF is really bad for Jamaica; high-end Category 4 impact.

And then surprisingly it shows it's strengthening after it leaves Jamaica

[aspen]

12z HWRF is really bad for Jamaica; high-end Category 4 impact.

It remains shockingly steady until landfall on this run, as opposed to other recent runs where shear weakens Beryl down to a sloppy Cat 1.

If that verifies, we sure won’t be seeing the name Beryl in 2030.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro:
1) slightly further S than prior 3 runs at Jamaica with it barely offshore, which would normally be a terrible track for Jamaica

2) crosses Yucatan just N of Belize border, which is slightly S of 6Z/0Z runs

3) landfalls just N of Tampico, which is similar to 0Z

[Nimbus]

So after destroying Jamaica 12Z HWRF Beryl continues on making landfall over Cozumel as a 945 mb major.

[Blinhart]

So after destroying Jamaica Beryl continues on making landfall over Cozumel as a 945 mb major.

So a lot of cruises will be diverted in the near future as multiple cruise ports will be damaged for a while.

[Category5Kaiju]

This is going to be a legendary storm.

[Hurricane2022]

This is going to be a legendary storm.

She already is one!!!

[REDHurricane]

Has any tropical cyclone ever made landfall at (major) hurricane strength in 4 different locations? Worst case scenario for Beryl (still unlikely at this point but not out of the question) is a Cat 4 landfall on Carriacou, Cat 4 landfall on Jamaica, Cat 3+ landfall somewhere on the Yucatán, and another Cat 3+ landfall anywhere from NE Mexico to Louisiana. Obviously I hope this doesn't happen, but the fact that it's even a non-zero possibility at the beginning of July is ridiculous.

[Steve]

Did any of the models correctly predict the storm this morning 48 to 72hrs out. Location and strength?

Good question. I hope someone has the answer. I feel like there should be more of a concensus among the models by now. I know most say somewhere near the Texas / Mexico border, but there are enough that go elsewhere that make some people uncomfortable.

You can go back like 7 days on Tidbits and run the models as many times per day as they output.

[LarryWx]

12Z summary of the main/least inaccurate globals:

1) Euro and UKMET very similar in the vicinity of Tampico on S end

2) ICON TX/LA border on N end

3) in between are CMC halfway between Tampico and the TX border and the GFS at MX/TX border