ATL: BERYL - Models

[Category5Kaiju]

Has any tropical cyclone ever made landfall at (major) hurricane strength in 4 different locations? Worst case scenario for Beryl (still unlikely at this point but not out of the question) is a Cat 4 landfall on Carriacou, Cat 4 landfall on Jamaica, Cat 3+ landfall somewhere on the Yucatán, and another Cat 3+ landfall anywhere from NE Mexico to Louisiana. Obviously I hope this doesn't happen, but the fact that it's even a non-zero possibility at the beginning of July is ridiculous.

Irma is a good example of this kind of powerful hurricane that strikes land after land in “bowling pin” style. Barbuda, St Martin, Cuba, and Florida.

Ivan brushed Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, but iirc the only two areas that endured the core were the Windward Islands and Florida.

[Steve]

ICON (German Model) has it hitting just west of the LA/TX border but on a slight NNE fade. This is different than anything else. Sometimes ICON is first to a trend. Sometimes it's delayed. It often coincides with the EC (not this time) but usually is quicker to pick up genesis.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=129

Landfall roughly 4pm Sunday @ 964 (whatever adjustments have to be taken into account at this resolution) roughly Chambers/Jefferson/Orange Counties, Texas. This represents a west shift from 00z when it was hitting SC LA. It'll probably eventually come together and join the rest of the models with a S TX/N Mex hit.

[ROCK]

ICON (German Model) has it hitting just west of the LA/TX border but on a slight NNE fade. This is different than anything else. Sometimes ICON is first to a trend. Sometimes it's delayed. It often coincides with the EC (not this time) but usually is quicker to pick up genesis.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=129

Landfall roughly 4pm Sunday @ 964 (whatever adjustments have to be taken into account at this resolution) roughly Chambers/Jefferson/Orange Counties, Texas. This represents a west shift from 00z when it was hitting SC LA. It'll probably eventually come together and join the rest of the models with a S TX/N Mex hit.

Yeah its been stuck to the right of all the other global for a few days now. Never really looked at the ICON for anything other than curiosity. lol

[Kazmit]

Would not be surprised at all if the HWRF verifies. The timeframe for Beryl's weakening trend has consistently gotten pushed back over the last couple of days.

[IcyTundra]

It would be very concerning if the 12Z HWRF comes anywhere close to verifying.

[Nimbus]

It would be very concerning if the 12Z HWRF comes anywhere close to verifying.

This morning she wants to go to San Pedro island Belize this afternoon its Houston.
Typical crazy HWRF..

[Xyls]

Has any tropical cyclone ever made landfall at (major) hurricane strength in 4 different locations? Worst case scenario for Beryl (still unlikely at this point but not out of the question) is a Cat 4 landfall on Carriacou, Cat 4 landfall on Jamaica, Cat 3+ landfall somewhere on the Yucatán, and another Cat 3+ landfall anywhere from NE Mexico to Louisiana. Obviously I hope this doesn't happen, but the fact that it's even a non-zero possibility at the beginning of July is ridiculous.

Several actually on top of the previously mentioned Irma (which had 7 major hurricane landfalls including 4 Cat 5 ones). Inez, Hugo and Andrew also fit this definition as does the 1928 Okechobee Hurricane.

[Bimms]

Maybe I'm not looking at it right but it seems almost as if the 12z HWRF is almost "bouncing" of Jamaica as someone else mentioned or that it's looking to dip slightly south of it. But again I'm not an expert. I would not be surprised if this storm has the Houston Metro in it's crosshairs.

[sphelps8681]

ICON (German Model) has it hitting just west of the LA/TX border but on a slight NNE fade. This is different than anything else. Sometimes ICON is first to a trend. Sometimes it's delayed. It often coincides with the EC (not this time) but usually is quicker to pick up genesis.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=129

Landfall roughly 4pm Sunday @ 964 (whatever adjustments have to be taken into account at this resolution) roughly Chambers/Jefferson/Orange Counties, Texas. This represents a west shift from 00z when it was hitting SC LA. It'll probably eventually come together and join the rest of the models with a S TX/N Mex hit.

I am 15 from Jefferson county in Lumberton and the video seems to show it traveling east on the coast right over me as well.

[LarryWx]

ICON (German Model) has it hitting just west of the LA/TX border but on a slight NNE fade. This is different than anything else. Sometimes ICON is first to a trend. Sometimes it's delayed. It often coincides with the EC (not this time) but usually is quicker to pick up genesis.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=129

Landfall roughly 4pm Sunday @ 964 (whatever adjustments have to be taken into account at this resolution) roughly Chambers/Jefferson/Orange Counties, Texas. This represents a west shift from 00z when it was hitting SC LA. It'll probably eventually come together and join the rest of the models with a S TX/N Mex hit.

The ICON has some company at 12Z as the JMA (I know, not at all one of the better models) has Beryl hit Galveston. Also, the NAVGEM (I know it is probably an even worse model in general) has a hit at mid-TX coast. So, both of these very much in the fwiw category.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think the HWRF is more-or-less correct on intensity by the time it reaches the Yucatan. I really do have trouble seeing how even 30-40 knot shear will take down a Cat 4/5 to the extremes we were seeing yesterday. Models are coming around to a solution of a more intense system in the Gulf.

[Nederlander]

I think the HWRF is more-or-less correct on intensity by the time it reaches the Yucatan. I really do have trouble seeing how even 30-40 knot shear will take down a Cat 4/5 to the extremes we were seeing yesterday. Models are coming around to a solution of a more intense system in the Gulf.

Several factors at play.. Current shear environment, land interaction with Jamaica and then the Yucatán, and shear environment in the gulf. It could really go either way. The next 72 hours will be very telling.

[jlauderdal]

Maybe I'm not looking at it right but it seems almost as if the 12z HWRF is almost "bouncing" of Jamaica as someone else mentioned or that it's looking to dip slightly south of it. But again I'm not an expert. I would not be surprised if this storm has the Houston Metro in it's crosshairs.

They have bounced off the southern coast before, whether modeling is getting lucky or seeing something, we will have to wait.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think the HWRF is more-or-less correct on intensity by the time it reaches the Yucatan. I really do have trouble seeing how even 30-40 knot shear will take down a Cat 4/5 to the extremes we were seeing yesterday. Models are coming around to a solution of a more intense system in the Gulf.

Several factors at play.. Current shear environment, land interaction with Jamaica and then the Yucatán, and shear environment in the gulf. It could really go either way. The next 72 hours will be very telling.

Yes, but the GFS was bringing this down to an open-wave this time yesterday. That was not realistic.

[Steve]

ICON (German Model) has it hitting just west of the LA/TX border but on a slight NNE fade. This is different than anything else. Sometimes ICON is first to a trend. Sometimes it's delayed. It often coincides with the EC (not this time) but usually is quicker to pick up genesis.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=129

Landfall roughly 4pm Sunday @ 964 (whatever adjustments have to be taken into account at this resolution) roughly Chambers/Jefferson/Orange Counties, Texas. This represents a west shift from 00z when it was hitting SC LA. It'll probably eventually come together and join the rest of the models with a S TX/N Mex hit.

Yeah its been stuck to the right of all the other global for a few days now. Never really looked at the ICON for anything other than curiosity. lol

I don’t remember if it was like 2018 or 2019 when Levi started including it. But for the next couple of years I watched it. There were instances it was far ahead of GFS/CMC/Euro with Genesis that verified. I think it’s run on a somewhat tighter resolution - like 13 or 14k if I remember. So it will pick up some smaller storms that the globals don’t always see at first.

[xironman]

As far as intensity goes. Any deviation east on the path will bring the system closer to the upper level high that will set up in the central gulf. So that is why when a run goes west they get ripped apart. But deviate east and the shear is not nearly so bad. Its all about the path.

[kassi]

ICON (German Model) has it hitting just west of the LA/TX border but on a slight NNE fade. This is different than anything else. Sometimes ICON is first to a trend. Sometimes it's delayed. It often coincides with the EC (not this time) but usually is quicker to pick up genesis.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=129

Landfall roughly 4pm Sunday @ 964 (whatever adjustments have to be taken into account at this resolution) roughly Chambers/Jefferson/Orange Counties, Texas. This represents a west shift from 00z when it was hitting SC LA. It'll probably eventually come together and join the rest of the models with a S TX/N Mex hit.

I am 15 from Jefferson county in Lumberton and the video seems to show it traveling east on the coast right over me as well.

Hi. I live in your area. I lost everything in Harvey. House, cars, everything personal that can never be replaced. Everything but the backpack I was rescued with. It was devastating. A whole different story.

Anyway... I understand your anxiety. I know there's nothing I can say to help, but as of now, the chances of Beryl making landfall this far north are slim. Since there are so many uncertainties as far as landfall and intensity, it definitely bears watching.

[Tireman4]

ICON (German Model) has it hitting just west of the LA/TX border but on a slight NNE fade. This is different than anything else. Sometimes ICON is first to a trend. Sometimes it's delayed. It often coincides with the EC (not this time) but usually is quicker to pick up genesis.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=129

Landfall roughly 4pm Sunday @ 964 (whatever adjustments have to be taken into account at this resolution) roughly Chambers/Jefferson/Orange Counties, Texas. This represents a west shift from 00z when it was hitting SC LA. It'll probably eventually come together and join the rest of the models with a S TX/N Mex hit.

I am 15 from Jefferson county in Lumberton and the video seems to show it traveling east on the coast right over me as well.

Hi. I live in your area. I lost everything in Harvey. House, cars, everything personal that can never be replaced. Everything but the backpack I was rescued with. It was devastating. A whole different story.

Anyway... I understand your anxiety. I know there's nothing I can say to help, but as of now, the chances of Beryl making landfall this far north are slim. Since there are so many uncertainties as far as landfall and intensity, it definitely bears watching.

Just a word of caution, and everything you all stated was accurate, landfalling systems can affect areas many miles from the actual center. A tropical system can hit one area ( Corpus Christ/Harvey) and inundate another area many miles away (Houston/Harvey and points east). Also it can be a low end storm ( Allison/Houston) and cause massive havoc within a certain area, but not widespread.

[sphelps8681]

ICON (German Model) has it hitting just west of the LA/TX border but on a slight NNE fade. This is different than anything else. Sometimes ICON is first to a trend. Sometimes it's delayed. It often coincides with the EC (not this time) but usually is quicker to pick up genesis.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=129

Landfall roughly 4pm Sunday @ 964 (whatever adjustments have to be taken into account at this resolution) roughly Chambers/Jefferson/Orange Counties, Texas. This represents a west shift from 00z when it was hitting SC LA. It'll probably eventually come together and join the rest of the models with a S TX/N Mex hit.

I am 15 from Jefferson county in Lumberton and the video seems to show it traveling east on the coast right over me as well.

Hi. I live in your area. I lost everything in Harvey. House, cars, everything personal that can never be replaced. Everything but the backpack I was rescued with. It was devastating. A whole different story.

Anyway... I understand your anxiety. I know there's nothing I can say to help, but as of now, the chances of Beryl making landfall this far north are slim. Since there are so many uncertainties as far as landfall and intensity, it definitely bears watching.

We
Yes it was terrible for those that suffered like you and many others. We were lucky enough in Lumberton even though the Neches River is down the street, Pine Island Bayou South of us and Village Creek North of us. We did not flood but there was no way out we were trapped in from the South and North. It was like being on an island. Praying for everyone in the path of this storm. God Bless.

[cycloneye]

Gonzo is flying now and the data obtained will feed the models.