ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JRD]

Wind shear tendency:

If it keeps getting stronger Beryl could weaken faster than anticipated.

[Charleswachal]

Wind shear tendency:
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

So wind shear is dropping

[JRD]

Wind shear tendency:
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

So wind shear is dropping

It's most likely due to the tendency of strong hurricanes to shape their wind environment, so Beryl's weakening trend could begin to increase shear there as well.

[Nederlander]

Wind shear tendency:
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

So wind shear is dropping

No, it's increasing ahead of Beryl and in the western gulf..

[Charleswachal]

Wind shear tendency:
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

So wind shear is dropping

No, it's increasing ahead of Beryl and in the western gulf..

It says minus 30 right over top of where Beryl is

[Woofde]

Wind shear tendency:
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

So wind shear is dropping

It's most likely due to the tendency of strong hurricanes to shape their wind environment, so Beryl's weakening trend could begin to increase shear there as well.

Beryl is going to fight with it and attempt to pinch the TUTT off. You can see it in the modeling. Most likely Beryl will win, but it's going to take a large toll on the storm, especially if there's lots of land interaction. That shear in the Gulf is likely to disappear as well if Beryl succeeds, the TUTT will be cutoff.

You can see this pretty well on the latest GFS. It's a pretty complex setup, sort of a wait and see who comes out on top sort of thing.

[Zonacane]

Beryl has made a huge dent in TUTT

[LarryWx]

History of tracks headed to Jamaica or nearby from the E suggest Beryl likely won't weaken below a MH by the time it reaches Jamaica. We'll see.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I wish I knew how to post a picture on here, but it looks like Beryl is busting up that TUTT/shear. Also seems like it’s tapping into moisture over Venezuela.

[zzzh]

Upper level wind is never a problem, weak easterlies are there the entire time. The problem is that low level trades are too strong.

[jabman98]

I wish I knew how to post a picture on here, but it looks like Beryl is busting up that TUTT/shear. Also seems like it’s tapping into moisture over Venezuela.

About an hour ago the Weather Channel showed the "Top 5 Viral Videos" about weather, or something like that. One of them was a video of massive flooding in Venezuela. They said it was related to Beryl. That didn't sound right to me but maybe it was?

[Mouton]

Just a question, does a 940MB low generally equate to a cat 5 wind speed?

[Nimbus]

So wind shear is dropping

No, it's increasing ahead of Beryl and in the western gulf..

It says minus 30 right over top of where Beryl is

The high cirrus cloud movement outlines the shear in real time but its just an indication.
Gonzo is doing some detailed high altitude sampling to see if future shear is going to weaken Beryl significantly.
There is currently no sharp troughing ahead of Beryl along her track and it looks like the ridge may bridge over leaving Beryl relatively intact to me. That leaves land interaction with Jamaica to slow her down.

[weeniepatrol]

Just a question, does a 940MB low generally equate to a cat 5 wind speed?

No, it's a tad bit high for cat 5 winds. However, Beryl is a compact system and in June/July the subtropical ridge is very strong. These increase the difference in pressure over distance aka the pressure gradient, which yields stronger winds than "usual" for the given pressure.

That's why Beryl was a cat 4 at 950mb, yet Florence of 2018 at US landfall was 950mb with low category one winds. Because Florences' pressure gradient was loose, not tight, and that storm was broad, not compact.

[Hurricane2022]

[Pipelines182]

It's interesting that the location of Beryl at the end of the last HWRF run is just outside the NHC's official cone.

[IcyTundra]

It's interesting that the location of Beryl at the end of the last HWRF run is just outside the NHC's official cone.

HWRF is one of the models that is furthest north right now. We will see how things play out in the coming days.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I have a lot of family in Jamaica. Hurricane Gilbert was a very scary moment for my family since my grandmothers roof was blown off while speaking to my mother. Interested to see what the HH find when they make their next pass. Really hoping the shear wears it down overnight.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

She is getting oblitered right now and may not survive the night as a strong cane? We can only hope

[weatherman2004]

Thoughts on the NHC update? I think the cone will keep on going up slowly, depending on where it hits Jamaica. I honestly have no clue where this thing is gonna land.