ATL: BERYL - Models

[LadyBug72]

Gonzo is flying now and the data obtained will feed the models.

https://i.imgur.com/B9NAtwF.png

Please forgive my ignorance and I apologize in advance if I should be asking this somewhere else but I am genuinely curious about the gonzo flight vs other flights for HH...I was under the assumption that all the data from the HH flights fed the models?

[cycloneye]

Gonzo is flying now and the data obtained will feed the models.

https://i.imgur.com/B9NAtwF.png

Please forgive my ignorance and I apologize in advance if I should be asking this somewhere else but I am genuinely curious about the gonzo flight vs other flights for HH...I was under the assumption that all the data from the HH flights fed the models?

This mission is in the upper atmosphere to get data of how is the upper enviroment and that goes to the models.

[ROCK]

Gonzo is flying now and the data obtained will feed the models.

https://i.imgur.com/B9NAtwF.png

Please forgive my ignorance and I apologize in advance if I should be asking this somewhere else but I am genuinely curious about the gonzo flight vs other flights for HH...I was under the assumption that all the data from the HH flights fed the models?

This mission is in the upper atmosphere to get data of how is the upper environment and that goes to the models.

Maybe make 0Z runs....

[hurricane2025]

Icon 18z isn’t budging

[IcyTundra]

18Z ICON is pretty much identical through 96 hours.

[Stratton23]

18z ICON looks to be a little south of its 12z, 12z was tex/ LA border, because its just a tad further south on the 18z, this would come in around port arthurr maybe, west shift continues on ICON

[Wampadawg]

18z ICON looks to be a little south of its 12z, 12z was tex/ LA border, because its just a tad further south on the 18z, this would come in around port arthurr maybe, west shift continues on ICON

But sticking to its guns for that region

[Senobia]

Hey, hey, everyone -

Been perusing the models thread here and I'm curious if any pro-mets have chimed in with which models they believe to be the most accurate with this system thus far. Our local mets haven't referenced any particular model at all, but one has already declared, "Beryl is going to XXX on this date at this time at this intensity." Pretty reckless, IMO - so I'm just wondering what other pro-mets' thoughts are about current models.

Also, have there been any model runs posted that include the steering pattern in the graphic?

[jaguars_22]

The gfs went further south! But I don’t like how beryl slows down once she goes inland…. Stalls a little!

I think us on the mid Texas coast are going to get missed because it’s either going to move north and northeast off the coast of Texas or it’s going to come in south and get pushed westward… we need more rain but we’ll see

[IcyTundra]

Hey, hey, everyone -

Been perusing the models thread here and I'm curious if any pro-mets have chimed in with which models they believe to be the most accurate with this system thus far. Our local mets haven't referenced any particular model at all, but one has already declared, "Beryl is going to XXX on this date at this time at this intensity." Pretty reckless, IMO - so I'm just wondering what other pro-mets' thoughts are about current models.

Also, have there been any model runs posted that include the steering pattern in the graphic?

There is high confidence that Beryl will pass near Jamaica and head towards the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. It will exit the Yucatan and enter the Gulf of Mexico sometime Friday afternoon or evening and that is when uncertainty really increases. Nobody can say for sure where it will go after the Yucatan.

[HoustonFrog]

Looks like GFS a little south, more like South Padre or N Mexico this run.

Basically have GFS and CMC consistently together showing N Mexico or S Padre area while the ICON and HWRF show somewhere between Galveston and TX/LA border. Euro outlier pretty far south in mid Mexico although it's trending north slightly.

Euro, GFS going weaker

CMC and HWRF stronger

ICON super consistent

Edit: NAVGEM and JMA both like the ~Galveston track

[Wampadawg]

Looks like GFS a little south, more like South Padre or N Mexico this run.

Basically have GFS and CMC consistently together showing N Mexico or S Padre area while the ICON and HWRF show somewhere between Galveston and TX/LA border. Euro outlier pretty far south in mid Mexico although it's trending north slightly.

Euro, GFS going weaker

CMC and HWRF stronger

ICON super consistent

Edit: NAVGEM and JMA both like the ~Galveston track

So we are in agreement then lol

[LARanger]

Hey, hey, everyone -

Been perusing the models thread here and I'm curious if any pro-mets have chimed in with which models they believe to be the most accurate with this system thus far. Our local mets haven't referenced any particular model at all, but one has already declared, "Beryl is going to XXX on this date at this time at this intensity." Pretty reckless, IMO - so I'm just wondering what other pro-mets' thoughts are about current models.

Also, have there been any model runs posted that include the steering pattern in the graphic?

So, I have been thinking for the past couple of days that this storm-specific model verification for public consumption is something that should be relatively achievable, even as a value addition to an existing website's display of models.

At first, I was thinking it would be some AI fu-fu silliness, but really, this should be something simple enough that it should already exist. All you need is to ingest text data from each and every model run you can get your hands on with locations and (if available) intensities, then simply compare against actual with distance/angle and intensity error, preferably with option of a short-term and long-term focus. Beyond that, you just have to codify the scoring system (he says briefly, angering statisticians).

However, this is also slightly dangerous. Model XYZ might be nailing it but have a bad run, and if someone sees that they might trust it over the NHC cone. The counterpoint to this is that, let's face it, some people foolishly do this already (don’t be that guy).

Either way, in a case like this, it's not going to tell you what happens after the Yucatan.

[tolakram]

A single model will never be the answer, too many variables, not enough computing power, and too many things that can go wrong (bad data issues, for example).

[LSU Saint]

Should I feel safer in Houston yet?

[Woofde]

At some point in the next day or two, the models should hone in on a general location. But right now there is just too much uncertainty in the short term leading to wildly different outcomes. Once it clears Jamaica, we should have a much better idea of where it's going.

[IcyTundra]

Should I feel safer in Houston yet?

Still a lot of uncertainty right now so it is hard to answer your question.

[Stratton23]

18z Euro goes out just 90 hours, but it is well north of its 12z run at hour 90, euro may be caving to a more northly track

[Blinhart]

Have any of the models shown it go through the Yucatan Channel without touching any land?

[HoustonFrog]

18z Euro goes out just 90 hours, but it is well north of its 12z run at hour 90, euro may be caving to a more northly track

It’s been the southern outlier so not too surprising