ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

145 kt FL and 150-155 kt SFMR despite pressures around 950mbar. Lol

[Hurricane2022]

Beryl has quickly finished (??? ???) the EWRC.

[cheezyWXguy]

Amazing how well that NE eyewall is holding up, especially because the SW has taken a substantial beating. Radius of hurricane winds on the SW side looks to be 20-25% of the radius of hurricane winds on the NE side and justify cat1 winds compared to the NE side’s borderline cat4/5 winds.

[Michele B]

:uarrow: Beryl has made a huge dent in TUTT

I'd love to be a fly on the wall when professionals are studying this storm in the future!

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2022]

https://i.imgur.com/5mHyMK0.gif

Anyway... this data that Recon brought us is not good for Jamaica. As interesting as it is to see a resilient and strong system like this...it is worrying when this same cyclone heads towards landfall. Hopefully the Shear, Trades or whatever is bad for Beryl can continually weaken her before a (near) landfall in Jamaica...

[Michele B]

Thoughts on the NHC update? I think the cone will keep on going up slowly, depending on where it hits Jamaica. I honestly have no clue where this thing is gonna land.

As much land interaction as Beryl will have with the Yucatan peninsula is going to be the wild card in what happens strength-wise.

Can't really do more than speculate till we see it after its Mexico landfall.

[ljmac75]

Pressure looks to be ~946 mbar now, that's still a little lower than when it was originally put at 130 kts during the landfall yesterday.

[cycloneye]

Dropsonde from NOAA has 946mb.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Afraid that Beryl might outperform her forecast... again... as she lashes Jamaica. With how well she's held up to southwesterly shear and dry air, and seeing a convective resurgence, Jamaica may unfortunately see a category four landfall.

It may be that the landfall itself would slow Beryl down further. But knowing how she behaves, we'll never know lol

[AnnularCane]

https://i.imgur.com/5mHyMK0.gif

Ugly storm? I don't see any ugly storms.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Beryl's still packing nearly as strong of a punch as it did this morning, despite the degraded satellite presentation. MSLP might also be dropping again.

[IcyTundra]

Just goes to show how a hurricane looks can be deceiving.

[aspen]

Beryl has quickly finished (??? ???) the EWRC.
https://imageshack.com/i/pmH2LCYzj

Beryl really wants to hit Jamaica as a Cat 5 it seems. Hopefully shear causes at least some weakening before it makes landfall.

[TampaCE]

Could the mountains of Hispaniola be affecting the inflow on the north side of the storm? Sorry if this is a dumb question, just curious if those mountains could lead to some weakening.

[LadyBug72]

Learning question here…I’ve seen the posts from various Mets that say “weaker storm more west, stronger more north” what is the threshold of strength to determine this? Thank you!

[Stratton23]

Beryl may be attempting to clear out its eye again, this storm truely is giving a middle finger to everyone and the models lol

[LarryWx]

Could the mountains of Hispaniola be affecting the inflow on the north side of the storm? Sorry if this is a dumb question, just curious if those mountains could lead to some weakening.

Likely too far S of Hisp for much weakening before Jamaica from Hisp. Consider this:

Unfortunately for Jamaica, when looking at analogous tracks with a solid speed of movement from the E or ESE at/near Jamaica, I’m kind of discouraged. These storms, 1951’s Charlie, 1974’s Carmen, 1988’s Gilbert, 2001’s Iris, 2004’s Charley and Ivan, 2005’s Dennis and Emily, and Dean of 2007 either only weakened slightly, were steady, or strengthened on the way to Jamaica. So, these analogs have been suggesting that Beryl should remain a MH til impact with or a slight miss of Jamaica.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

I don't see what I would normally expect to see when looking at a sheared system. Looks like a fairly standard ERC finishing up. Maybe I'm missing something.