ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bob rulz]

I think we still have a lot to learn about how shear can affect hurricanes. There must be something about the core structure of Beryl that keeps the shear from penetrating the center.

[drexas]

Latest AF recon appears to show the pressure dropping, SFMR down to 944 again now. Lightning picking back up in the eyewall as well

[Xyls]

Beryl going to be possibly going for Cat 5 again. Would not be surprised if wake up to see this. Unfortunately, looks like the Cat 3 anticipation for Jamaica I said yesterday may be the conservative scenario at this point. Not only that but if it does intensify I would assume this would increase the likelihood for a landfall proper on Jamaica.

[CrazyC83]

Has the G-IV made many passes at all? That would help diagnose the environment ahead of Beryl, in addition to the steering pattern. With so little upper-air data, it could be that the TUTT is weakening before our eyes, or re-orienting.

[mpic]

Latest AF recon appears to show the pressure dropping, SFMR down to 944 again now. Lightning picking back up in the eyewall as well

It just amazes me what a beast Beryl continues to be.

[Travorum]

139 kts FL / 142 kts SFMR in the NW eyewall on the last AF pass, certainly supports the 130kts that the NHC has it pegged at if not a touch higher.

[Zonacane]

Has the G-IV made many passes at all? That would help diagnose the environment ahead of Beryl, in addition to the steering pattern. With so little upper-air data, it could be that the TUTT is weakening before our eyes, or re-orienting.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#NOAA9-1002A-BERYL
Drops 12 thru 16

[IcyTundra]

Going to be a close call on if Beryl goes directly over Jamaica or scrap the southern coast of Jamaica. Not like it is going to make much of a difference for the people in Jamaica.

[CrazyC83]

Going to be a close call on if Beryl goes directly over Jamaica or scrap the southern coast of Jamaica. Not like it is going to make much of a difference for the people in Jamaica.

If an ERC has also finished, the RMW is likely a bit larger too, increasing the amount of territory that will get hit by the core in Jamaica. That was what really made Maria horrible in Puerto Rico.

[Sciencerocks]

[Woofde]

Has the G-IV made many passes at all? That would help diagnose the environment ahead of Beryl, in addition to the steering pattern. With so little upper-air data, it could be that the TUTT is weakening before our eyes, or re-orienting.

It made a decent spread, but not much in Beryls path.

[Xyls]

I think this is the most intense period of convective activity we have seen around the eye wall yet with Beryl. Reminds me a lot of Maria in 2017. Structure of the storm is rapidly improving as well. I wonder if we are about to see rapid intensification...

[Travorum]

NOAA recon data also suggests that the NW eyewall might have the strongest winds now, which could be really bad news for Jamaica if Beryl ends up making landfall.

[Category5Kaiju]

Beryl terrifies me for two reasons. One, it just simply defies all odds and maintains strength while attempting to intensify whenever it pleases, despite 20 knots of shear, while bulldozing island after island (and with Mexico's Yucatan and Texas, including Corpus and Houston, well within the chance of seeing some impact from this system).

Two, if conditions are like this now, what will they look like during the prime hurricane months of August-October? What kind of demonic storms are going to happen then? One can only speculate.

[Kingarabian]

I think we still have a lot to learn about how shear can affect hurricanes. There must be something about the core structure of Beryl that keeps the shear from penetrating the center.

These cases are normal and documented in intense hurricanes such as Beryl.

[Zonacane]

https://i.imgur.com/Fca0MbD.png
NOAA recon data also suggests that the NW eyewall might have the strongest winds now, which could be really bad news for Jamaica if Beryl ends up making landfall.

No sign of shear on the core either

[UTSARoadrunner4]

From some observations I’ve read, Hurricane Allen (1980) also had to deal with similar “issues” as Beryl.

-Was booking it across the Caribbean at about 22 mph.
-Shear was thought to dismantle Allen as it came through the Caribbean, but Allen used the shear to strengthen itself.

Granted, no 2 storms are the same, but they can be similar. And if this is anything like Allen, I don’t think Beryl will weaken much after dealing with Jamaica. Especially if its core is able to avoid the high mountains on the east side of the island.

If it’s still a major on approach to the Cayman Islands, my fellow coastal Texans should start taking this baby seriously.

Edit: While Allen was a very serious hurricane, the only thing that kept Houston or Corpus from catching a direct pop was the western edge of the ridge not retreating fast enough…just a little tidbit…

[SconnieCane]

https://i.imgur.com/Fca0MbD.png
NOAA recon data also suggests that the NW eyewall might have the strongest winds now, which could be really bad news for Jamaica if Beryl ends up making landfall.

That's the right front quadrant in a west to northwestward-moving hurricane, so that's to be expected.

[CrazyC83]

From some observations I’ve read, Hurricane Allen (1980) also had to deal with similar “issues” as Beryl.

-Was booking it across the Caribbean at about 22 mph.
-Shear was thought to dismantle Allen as it came through the Caribbean, but Allen used the shear to strengthen itself.

Granted, no 2 storms are the same, but they can be similar. And if this is anything like Allen, I don’t think Beryl will weaken much after dealing with Jamaica. Especially if its core is able to avoid the high mountains on the east side of the island.

If it’s still a major on approach to the Cayman Islands, my fellow coastal Texans should start taking this baby seriously.

Allen was also an early-season storm (although not as early, it was the benchmark until 2005), being in the first few days of August.

[bob rulz]

I think we still have a lot to learn about how shear can affect hurricanes. There must be something about the core structure of Beryl that keeps the shear from penetrating the center.

These cases are normal and documented in intense hurricanes such as Beryl.

But do we really know WHY it happens? And it's also clear that we still struggle to forecast how shear will affect a hurricane. Not that I would think it's easy, considering every storm is going to be different, but some major hurricanes do still get torn apart by shear similar to what Beryl seems to be experiencing (unless Beryl isn't actually experiencing any shear).