ATL: BERYL - Models

[ROCK]

ICON has always been the right outlier..did shift from 18Z down a few counties to the left. More runs tonight 0Zs coming up. Ain’t staying up for the Euro which is like 2am CST.

[HurricaneBrain]

I think we’ll finally see the EURO cave into the current GFS solution if ensembles are any indication. Very interested in the GFS coming up…

ICON has always been the right outlier..did shift from 18Z down a few counties to the left. More runs tonight 0Zs coming up. Ain’t staying up for the Euro which is like 2am CST.

[captainbarbossa19]

The reason why the storm turns northwest and north is due to a secondary shortwave digging in the northern Great Plains. The Euro and GFS both have the shortwave develop further north. ICON has the shortwave much further south. This is going to play a big role I think in future track.

[TomballEd]

The only good thing about the ICON is that it is available before the other globals. I suspect lower verification score than the Euro, GFS and Canadian.

[Woofde]

The ICON is not a bad model. I remember during Idalia it performed quite well, consistently showing Perry while the other models were all over the place.

[ColdMiser123]

The reason why the storm turns northwest and north is due to a secondary shortwave digging in the northern Great Plains. The Euro and GFS both have the shortwave develop further north. ICON has the shortwave much further south. This is going to play a big role I think in future track.

https://i.imgur.com/HTEkpjp.png

GFS made major changes with this shortwave, and is now a good amount NE of 18z through 96 hours with Beryl.

[HurricaneBrain]

And stronger…

The reason why the storm turns northwest and north is due to a secondary shortwave digging in the northern Great Plains. The Euro and GFS both have the shortwave develop further north. ICON has the shortwave much further south. This is going to play a big role I think in future track.

https://i.imgur.com/HTEkpjp.png

GFS made major changes with this shortwave, and is now a good amount NE of 18z through 96 hours with Beryl.

[IcyTundra]

GFS takes Beryl into the TX/MX border as 974 MB hurricane.

[txag2005]

0z GFS makes landfall right at the US/Mexico border. Looking at the last couple runs, the 12z was just north of the US/Mexico and 18z was just south of the US/Mexico border.

[IcyTundra]

CMC takes it to just south of the TX/MX border.

[txag2005]

CMC shows land in North Mexico, a bit further south of the border compared to the GFS, which seems to be hugging the border on the last 3 runs.

The last couple CMC runs also showed landfall in Northern Mexico, with the 12z run seeming to make landfall at right around the same spot as the 0z tonight. The 0z from last night was a bit further south.

[SconnieCane]

18Z HWRF is a little bit less weenie fuel than the 12Z...a little. It shows Beryl remaining a formidable <940mb hurricane through around 12Z 7/3, or about another 8 hours from now, before being rather badly sheared on approach to Jamaica. However, it does begin to put itself back together somewhat before landfall in the Yucatan. After the Yucatan, it re-intensifies becoming quite deep with a huge eye. This implies a looser pressure gradient than before, so ~950mb is probably more like low-end Cat. 2 winds instead of mid to high Cat. 4, but Texas knows all too well the kind of surges that type of storm can produce.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET is similar to 12Z run. Final landfall little N of Tampico/slightly N of 12Z landfall: don’t use for strength, which is way underdone as usual; use for track only

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 71.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.07.2024 0 16.2N 71.6W 969 91
1200UTC 03.07.2024 12 16.6N 75.4W 980 73
0000UTC 04.07.2024 24 17.9N 78.6W 989 57
1200UTC 04.07.2024 36 18.2N 82.7W 995 47
0000UTC 05.07.2024 48 18.6N 86.0W 996 45
1200UTC 05.07.2024 60 19.3N 88.6W 1000 32
0000UTC 06.07.2024 72 20.0N 91.9W 1000 39
1200UTC 06.07.2024 84 20.8N 93.8W 1001 37
0000UTC 07.07.2024 96 21.7N 95.4W 1000 38
1200UTC 07.07.2024 108 22.8N 96.8W 996 41
0000UTC 08.07.2024 120 23.6N 98.3W 997 39
1200UTC 08.07.2024 132 23.4N 100.7W 1006 26
0000UTC 09.07.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

[Steve]

GFS takes Beryl into the TX/MX border as 974 MB hurricane.

There’s a lot of rain in south Texas and south Hill Country from that run. 96L gives it a later boost. This is through 10 days. The tubing rivers ought to be in great shape by mid July if it verifies.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 300&fh=240

[La Breeze]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1808293278296768795

So Lake Charles/Sabine Pass is starting to look like bulls-eye???

I certainly hope NOT!

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro: back S similar to 12Z to just N of Tampico; similar to 0Z UKMET

[TomballEd]

HAFS A & B into NE Mexico. High level G-IV sonde drops and low level recon missions should have made 0Z initialization, models seem to be homing on on final landfall location. ICON is an outlier among globals, looking like HWRF is an outlier to the other high res hurricane miles.

[Stratton23]

TomballEd not quite just yet, GFS and GEFS dont agree, we need to see how this interacts with Jamaica tommorow

[kevin]

00z models are trending stronger in terms of intensity than yesterday.

HWRF: weakens to 949mb/117t before grazing Jamaica, 968mb/81kt Yucatan landfall, 959mb/90kt at the end of the run nearing Texas.
HMON: weakens to 949mb/110kt before making landfall in southern Jamaica, 974mb/83kt Yucatan landfall, 972mb/73kt landfall in northern Mexico.
HAFS-A: 'weakens' to 953mb/124kt before grazing Jamaica, 960mb/98kt Yucatan landfall, 976mb/72kt landfall in northern Mexico.
HAFS-B: 'weakens' to 954mb/125kt before grazing Jamaica, 974mb/79kt Yucatan landfall, 971mb/80kt landfall near Tampico.

Blend of these 4 runs: weakening to 950mb/120kt before grazing Jamaica, 970mb/85kt Yucatan landfall, 970mb/80kt while making landfall in northern Mexico (with an outside shot of a more northern track towards Texas as HWRF is showing).

[Nederlander]

Better model agreement this morning as I suspected. Models are honing in on a Tampico to Brownsville final landfall.